Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Well, This Didn't Turn Out Like We Had Hoped -- CMP-- November 3, 2021

Note: this whole subject is well beyond my expertise but this is how I see it. Facts and opinions and personal understanding (which is often wrong) are interspersed in the post below and it is impossible to tell what is fact and what is fiction, but I bet I'm not too far off the mark.

In a long note like this, especially with a subject I know nothing about, there will be content and typographical errors. 

For this next news item / this next post to make sense, one must understand this diagram:

ISO-NE: The diagram shown here illustrates, in relative geographic location, the substations, transmission lines, and interconnections with neighboring grids that make up the New England power system

The diagram above shows existing facilities and facilities that are expected to be placed in service in the near future. If you feel this diagram is insufficient and that you need more detailed information, you can download a more detailed version of the diagram at the link. 

Okay. Now that you have the diagram, here's perhaps the most interesting news story of the day. 

"ISO NE" must meet -- by law -- certain renewable energy milestones. Massachusetts and more specifically, Boston, are most affected by these rules and regulations. 

Plan A, then Plan B, then Plan C ... Plan Y mostly fell back to Plan A: expensive hydroelectricity from Quebec to meet the renewable energy requirements for Boston as promulgated by law. 

Only one problem. 

There's this big state called Maine that sits between Massachusetts and Boston. 

Which reminds me. 

This is so ironic with a capital "I." 

Maine, at one time, was part of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. In 1820 it voted to secede from Massachusetts to become a separate state for the sole purpose of raining on Boston's parade, as they say in Brookline. On March 15, 1820, under the Missouri Compromise, Maine was admitted to the Union as the 23rd state. 

Maine's one claim to fame is the fact that it is the only state whose name consists of a single syllable. 

Maine has a nasty habit of poking a stick in Boston's metaphorical eye. LOL. 

And that brings us to the most interesting story in the past twenty-four hours.

This link was sent to me by a reader. Thank you. 

For Boston to meet its renewable energy mandate, the only viable alternative is to bring expensive hydroelectricity in from Quebec, but that requires a really big transmission line and that line would go through Maine.

Well, a woman who I will call Rosa Parks, of Farmington, Maine, wouldn't go for that. She felt that this really, really big transmission line would only benefit Quebec and Massachusetts (of course, she is/was correct). It offered nothing for Maine. And so Rosa Parks and friends killed the project.

At the linked story

Central Maine Power -- CMP -- was dealt a major blow yesterday when voters voted to kill the utility's $1 billion hydropower corridor project.

The vote on the project has been nearly four years in the making. After a similar project was killed by New Hampshire regulators in 2018, the 145-mile corridor to bring Hydro-Quebec power to the regional grid through western Maine emerged as Massachusetts' best hope to fulfill a massive clean-power request.

Much more at the linked article. 

Rosa Parks harnessed grassroots anger, but look at this: the anti-hydro-electricity movement was funded by .... no, not George Soros ... but rather .... drum roll ... the fossil fuel industry.

LOL. I can't make this stuff up. 

Anyway, you get the gist of the story. If not, go to the linked story and google CMP hyropower corridor for background.  

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End of the Line

End Of The Line, The Traveling Wilburys

Chillax. Keep Calm. Frack On. November 3, 2021

For those of you who are concerned about WTI pulling back below $80 please take some time to read the multiple threads at this link

It's counter-intuitive and scary, but the pullback below $80 is very, very important on so many levels. 

For those investing in the stock market this may provide some buying opportunities. 

Unless it's a prolonged pullback, more than three months, it should not affect royalty payments to much extent.

God must have a sense of humor and successful oil men must have nerves of steel. On the day Harold Hamm closes / announces a $3 billion deal to buy into the Permian, WTI crashes five percent and drops below $80.

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Laugh, Laugh, I Thought I Would Die

Laugh, Laugh, Beau Brummels
The drummer is channeling Ringo.

This Doesn't Matter Whether It's True Or Not; It Won't Be Reported And It Won't Be Fact-Checked By Mainstream Media; The Science Is Settled -- November 3, 2021

Link here

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Baby, It's Gonna Get Cold

Link here

Five New Permits; Rimrock Reports A Nice DUC Completed; WTI Drops Below $80 -- November 3, 2021

Active rigs: it looks like 32 active oil and gas rigs; a couple of errors on the NDIC spreadsheet, and one of the rigs is for a SWD well. See first comment.

$79.81
11/3/202111/03/202011/03/201911/03/201811/03/2017
Active Rigs3214576655

Five new permits, #38634 - #38638, inclusive:

  • Operators: Grayson Mill Operating (4) and Whiting
  • Fields: Poe (McKenzie); Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a permit for a Braaflat well in NWNW 11-153-91; sited 680 FNL and 501 FWL;
    • Grayson Mill (Equinor) has permits for four Viking wells in SWSW 16-151-100; sited between 918 FSL and 828 FSL and 350 FWL

One permit renewed:

  • 19881, Enerplus, Hall 23-21H, Squaw Creek,

Two permits canceled:

  • Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Austin permit and a CPEUSC Narcisse permit, both in Williams County;

One producing well completed:

  • 36929, 3,019, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 77K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20212623616286
8-20215121726835
7-20211533554

The NDIC posted this notice today:

CURRENT ACTIVE DRILLING RIG LIST *Data published at dmr.nd.gov/oilgas under the Active Drilling Rigs, Confidential Well List, Well Search, GIS Map Server, and Basic/Premium Services are being impacted by a data migration. This has caused the data to remain temporarily stagnant. Data is accurate up to July 14, 2021. When an estimated date of repair is available, we will update this service notice. 

"Temporarily stagnant": this means that data at the listed sites has not been updated since July 14, 2021. 

Note: this "stagnant data" includes the map which means that the GIS Map Server has not been updated since July 14, 2021. At least that's how I understand that.

Note: no new scout tickets have been added since July 14, 2021. Scout tickets posted prior to that date have not been updated, but I believe production data is being entered (manually?).  At least that's how I understand that.

Note: there is estimated date when this will be rectified. Going on four months now.

Active rigs per the NDIC today: 35; note that two rigs are listed for the same well, file #37014. See screenshot below.

Yesterday, here were 34 rigs listed yesterday. Today, 35. Koda had one rig yesterday, two rigs today:

  • 37796, Koda, Stout 3409-1BH, SWSW 34-160-102; Hanks, to the southwest,
  • 37798, Koda, Stout 3427-3BH, SWSW 34-160-102; Fertile Valley, to the north,

But that's a  mistake. See first comment. It's the same rig. The rig is being moved from one well to another.

There is a third location on that three-well pad:

  • 37797, Koda, Stout 3410-2BH, Bar Butte, to the southeast.

In addition, in the same quadrant, a salt water disposal well:

  • 38288, Koda, Stout 34-1 SWD, Fertile Valley, 

Bottom line: today a new rig was added to the list, but it was a SWD well rig, so no increase in oil and gas active wells, and Koda did not add a rig.

Now, back to this note;

  • Active rigs per the NDIC today: 35; note that two rigs are listed for the same well, file #37014. See screenshot below. Also one rig named for two different wells. So, we should be at 33 active rigs in North Dakota.

See screenshot:  

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- November 3, 2021

Link here.

  • US crude oil inventories increased by 3.3 million bbls.
  • US crude oil inventories now stand at 434.1 million bbls, 6% below the very fat five-year average. In other words, more than enough crude oil in storage for the short term, and operators are adding more every week.
  • refiners are operating at 86.3% of their operable capacity;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bopd last week, down 83,000 bopd (yawn);
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.1 million bopd, 14.9% more than same four week period last year.
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.2 million bbls last week and are about 5% below the five year average; looking at a lot better than previously thought
  • jet fuel supplied was up 44.5% compared with same four-week period last year (but how did that compare to 2019, the year before the year of the plague)

Gasoline demand. Link here. Remains flat. Demand destruction at $4.50 / gallon?