Sunday, October 31, 2021

Global Crude Oil Supply And Demand -- October 31, 2021

Link here.

In the graphic below:

  • the double bars are quarterly; most recent is 3Q21;
  • the bars are "supply" --
    • the darker grey/blue bars: EIA estimate
    • the lighter blue bars: OPEC estimate
  • the lines are demand --
    • the red line is demand, EIA estimate
    • the blue line is demand, OPEC estimate
  • comments:
    • prior to CY19: supply/demand pretty much balanced
    • huge production overhang when demand plummeted first quarter - second quarter, 2020
    • for the past five quarters, demand has exceeded supply and the gap is fairly consistent
  • a reminder: the price of the last bbl of oil determines the price of oil

Investopedia: note the date of this article and the authors' comment about OPEC's price target.

Say What? October 31, 2021

It was my understanding that the US, Japan, and others have been pushing for OPEC+ to produce more. 

Now this

Apparently he has one speech writer for the overseas crowd and another speech writer for the stateside folks.

We'll see WTI futures soon.

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Halloween

The twins, nineteen months old, are getting their final instructions before going out to trick or treat. 

I assume "socks and shoes" were part of the briefing. 

Two EOG Mandaree Wells Hit Milestone -- Four-Well Pad Updated -- October 31, 2021

The wells:

  • 32514, 1,355, EOG, Mandaree 31-0706H, Squaw Creek, , t12/16; cum 633K 5/20; intermittent production in 2020; full production back as of 10/20; cum 693K 8/21; producing over 4,000 bbls oil per month this well went over 700,000 bbls of oil in October, 2021; 
  • 32513, 1,910, EOG, Mandaree 24-0706H, Squaw Creek, t12/16; cum 546K 5/20; intermittent production in 2020; full production back as of 10/20; cum 599K 8/21; this well has gone over 600,000 bbls as of September, 2021 

The other two wells on this pad:

  • 19004, 1,440 EOG, Mandaree 12-07H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 212K 8/21;
  • 32512, AB/1,505, EOG, Mandaree 30-0706H, Squaw Creek, t12/16; cum 310K 9/19;

No Update Regarding This Pad; One Monster Well; Waiting For The Other Three -- October 31, 2021

The well:

  • 19296, 2,388, SHD, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, TF Bench 1, 62 stages, 15 million lbs, t3/15; cum 781K 4/20; cum 828K 8/21;
  • 31109, conf, SHD, Charging Wildcat 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, no production data,
  • 31110, conf, SHD, War Eagle 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, no production data,
  • 31111, conf, SHD, Luke Neset 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, no production data,

Methane-To-Methanol -- A Halloween Treat For Pennsylvania And Texas-- October 31, 2021

In a long note there will be content and typographical errors, but there are plenty of links to the original sources.

A reader alerted me to this story. Several links. 

We start with this one: Nacero to build a $6 billion "gas to gasoline" plant in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. 

For those of us in North Dakota, I had to look it up: northeast Pennsyvania, the largest city is Wilkes-Barre. I had forgotten all about this but years ago when our older daughter's family was moving from South Carolina to Boston, to avoid the Washington-Baltimore corridor, we swung to the west, traveling north on I-81, and staying overnight in the Wilkes-Barre area on the last leg to Boston. Wow, what a beautiful area of the country. There just is not enough time in one's life to enjoy everything this wonderful country has to offer.

But I digress.

Back to Houston-based Nacero, Inc. Data points:

  • site of a former coal mine;
  • $6 billion project;
  • 3,500 construction jobs;
  • 450 permanent high-tech jobs paying $85,000 / year
  • methane to zero sulfure, 100% domestic, low- and net zero-carbon gasoline in existing ICEs without modification;

And, then look at this: Nacero will also build, what appears to be an identical Pennsylvania unit near Odessa, TX.

  • announced April 22, 2021
  • $6.5 - $7.5 billion Penwell GTG (see Pennsylvania story above)
    • Penwell, Ector County, TX: Penwell is seventeen miles southeast of Odessa
  • would be the first in the US to produce gasoline from natural gas, as well as the first in the world to incorporate CCS;

Nacero has let a contract to Haldor Topsoe AS to license the necessary technology to utilize more than just natural gas for its Penwell/Odessa project. Data points:

  • contractor: Haldor Topsoe AS
  • GTG (gas-to-gasoline)
  • Topsoe Improved Gasoline Synthesis (Tigas) GTG technology
  • will use a feedstock of low-cost natural gasoline, biomethane captured from farms and landfills, and mitigated flared natural gas from the Permian basin to produce 100,000 b/d of finished gasoline;
  • that finished gasoline component will be ready for blending to US commercial grades
  • much more at the link

More on Topsoe's TIGAS technology: link here.

Nacero has done this before: proven results in an identical unit of scale operating since 2019 at state-owned Turkmengaz's GTG complex at Ovadan-Depe near Ashgabad, Turkmenistan.

Other links:

If it works, could we see such a plant in the Eagle Ford or the Bakken?