Monday, September 6, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 6, 2021

Updating the Bakken: periodically I update wells that had had not reported when they came off the confidential list. I usually have to go back two years to pick up the DUCs that were finally completed (the new regulation allows two years to complete a DUC). This morning, I only had to go back one year, to 3Q20, pick up the DUCs that had been completed. I can't do the statistics, but it certainly looks like the Bakken operators completed a lot of DUCs in 2020 in lieu of drilling new wells. 

Coal: for some reason, today coal is trending over at twitter; then this from Breitbart today:

  • Australia: three months ending July, 2021 -- Australian coal exports soared to $12.5 billion -- a 26 percent increase on the previous quarter:
  • one assumes all that coal is going to China and other parts of Asia
  • China vs Australia coal imports disagreement: I've lost the bubble on this squabble but it appears Australia is doing just fine, thank you
  • and thank you, to a reader, alerting me to the article;

See first comment.

If you look at US coal exports and production stats (available from EIA here: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec6_3.pdf) you can see that sometime around October 2020 US #s went up as well.
This probably coincided with the surge in natural gas prices.

"Seasonal Flu" -- 2020 - 2021 Season -- Update -- September 6 , 2021

"Seasonal flu": time to start tracking "seasonal flu" again. Link here.

  • this will get messy due to CDC reporting category "influenza like illness" which coudl include "everything under the sun" including Covid-19
  • last year, the 2019 - 2020 season: "seasonal flu" eradicated by Covid-19
  • this year, the 2020 - 2021 season: still no evidence of much "seasonal flu"
  • summary, ILINet:
  • Nationwide during week 34, 2.2% of patient visits reported through ILINet were due to ILI. The percentage of patient visits for ILI remains below the baseline of 2.6% nationally. One region (Region 4) is above their region-specific baseline while the remaining regions are below their baselines. Influenza virus circulation remains low; therefore, increases in ILI activity are likely due to increased circulation of other respiratory viruses.
    • could that be Covid-19?

Labor Day Monday -- September 6, 2021

Sun Country -- XWA, link here:

  • first Sun Country Airlines flight SY 171 from Las Vegas, Thursday evening (September 2, 2021);
  • not possibly at former Williston airport
  • City of Williston partnered with Sun Country to provide the flights
  • SY 172 return flight to Las Vegas
  • this seasonal service to Las Vegas will pause on Nov. 28, due to staffing and aircraft shortages among other reasons

Three bullish catalysts for oil this fall: link to Alex Kimani.

  • record revenues for shale operators;
    • most analysts suggest $75 - $80 oil over next 18 months;
    • BofA suggests we will see $100-oil
  • demand recovery in China
  • supply crunch
    • BofA suggests $100-oil in 2022

China hoarding crude oil again, link to Alex Kimani:

  • good news for oil prices;

Trending over at twitter: record high prices for gasoline in California;

Lots of swimming this week:


For The Second Week In A Row, NDIC Reports No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- September 6, 2021

Monday, September 13, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Sunday, September 12, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Saturday, September 11, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Friday, September 10, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Thursday, September 9, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Wednesday, September 8, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, September 7, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Monday, September 6, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Sunday, September 5, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Saturday, September 4, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

WPX Fast Dog Wells Are Starting To Report IPs -- September 5, 2021

The Fast Dog wells are tracked here.

The wells:

  • 37349, loc/A, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HB, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20, t--; cum 219K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213112184121881305426623257120
BAKKEN6-202124941293781171823702219610
BAKKEN5-20213012147121711446527425251880
BAKKEN4-20213015736157831813234493318530
BAKKEN3-20213120463205331805538128348360
BAKKEN2-20212721515214711909434525314590
BAKKEN1-20212930290302353145043210390870
BAKKEN12-20203146160461214624755294500200
BAKKEN11-20202251136509852253343852383800
  • 37351, A/F, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HG, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20, t--; cum 204K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213114488144321703926180253140
BAKKEN6-20212280828089144281463912634574
BAKKEN5-20212813334133711474325058227910
BAKKEN4-20213018298183262178436473335800
BAKKEN3-20213121343214462028134985316470
BAKKEN2-20212824623245192626736828333530
BAKKEN1-20212928063279913757938116342190
BAKKEN12-20203137445374035160444778404370
BAKKEN11-20201938361382482338332874287690
  • 37350, A/AL, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HS, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20, t--; cum 184K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213112289123492926530964300530
BAKKEN6-20213012421122742979722267199870
BAKKEN5-2021217651770321876110658710896
BAKKEN4-20212913272133352495023440211890
BAKKEN3-20213119486195393061331751285640
BAKKEN2-20212819468193973545030686277570
BAKKEN1-20212823455233975198133661302680
BAKKEN12-20203032076320746968139876361200
BAKKEN11-20202044297441673249132138273980
  • 37348, 2,402, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HX, Eagle Nest, t11/20; cum 193K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213113520134991618624462237970
BAKKEN6-20213016258162301988427932224102832
BAKKEN5-202122878088531284615083113862147
BAKKEN4-20213023203231792791234662312290
BAKKEN3-20213120425204383383530351270630
BAKKEN2-20212819420194652985426582236640
BAKKEN1-20213124885248413506135248316060
BAKKEN12-20202928286282584017634872315490
BAKKEN11-20203038030378694702238830347610
  • 37347, A/F, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HA, Eagle Nest, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 249K 7/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213114100140621527429400284890
BAKKEN6-20212187368787944221269197110
BAKKEN5-20213118074180351350542688398480
BAKKEN4-20213016625166861457234625318900
BAKKEN3-20213122662228091574841815382880
BAKKEN2-20212828966288481777238260343280
BAKKEN1-20212933446333802495141253367990
BAKKEN12-20203149644496073901560589549420
BAKKEN11-20203057048568801725145688395840

37346, 2,402, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HWL, Eagle Nest, t11/20; cum 193K 7/21:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20213113520134991618624462237970
BAKKEN6-20213016258162301988427932224102832
BAKKEN5-202122878088531284615083113862147
BAKKEN4-20213023203231792791234662312290
BAKKEN3-20213120425204383383530351270630
BAKKEN2-20212819420194652985426582236640
BAKKEN1-20213124885248413506135248316060
BAKKEN12-20202928286282584017634872315490
BAKKEN11-20203038030378694702238830347610

Wells of interest in the area:

  • 22268, PNC, WPX, Fettig 6-7HA, Eagle Nest,
  • 22269, PA, WPX, Fettig 6-7HB, Eagle Nest,
  • 22270, 484, WPX, Fettig 6-7HC, Eagle Nest, t9/12; cum 239K 7/21; nice jump in production;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN7-2021319881390118255
    BAKKEN6-20210000000
    BAKKEN5-20211223062280160830142404228
    BAKKEN4-202130517951693862676837431854
    BAKKEN3-202131661469735501864448792438
    BAKKEN2-202128335829974298439203570
    BAKKEN1-202125406240766396530934442
    BAKKEN12-202033103154214050361
    BAKKEN11-2020193363333826883439503760
    BAKKEN10-20200000000
    BAKKEN9-2020241107117847014470931
    BAKKEN8-2020271198120552715660965
    BAKKEN7-20202914041391585183301663
    BAKKEN6-20203014471494599189101123
    BAKKEN5-20203115391467642201101204
    BAKKEN4-20203016531734633216201363