This May Be My Last Blog -- June 7, 2021

This may be my last blog.

John Hess On Shale Oil -- June 7, 2021

John Hess, CEO, talks about shale, The Williston Herald. 

“(Shale) is not going to be the swing producer, it’s not going to be the marginal supplier,” he said during the recent Citi 2021 Global Energy and Utilities Virtual Conference.

“Shale we think has entered a new phase. Where it was a growth business, now it’s a harvest business. While there’s still more oil to exploit, it’s going to be done in a much more financially disciplined manner.” 

“We don’t see peak oil until let’s say 2030,” Hess said. “I know some people think maybe it’s 2025, but the point is, you know, we still see demand for oil being pretty robust going out, even with the ESG and government pressures that are out there on climate change. Oil and gas is still a strategic industry, not only for the United States but for the world to get the economy back on its feet.”

“Ultimately, the most rigs we would ever be at in the Bakken would be four,” he added. “So let’s assume that prices would hold strongly again through 2022, we’d probably look at that fourth rig at the back end of 2022.”

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The Rez

You can subscribe to this channel. They are really quite good.

My favorite:

"I just hit a dog. I was wondering if it was yours?"

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[Dead.]

"A River Runs Through It" -- Fortyfive Years Later -- June 7, 2021

"A River Runs Through It." 

The Washington Post. Link here. 

I thought I had posted this. Maybe not.

From the linked article:

His son, John N. Maclean, is also an author, and his latest book, “Home Waters,” is a lyrical companion to his father’s classic, chronicling their family’s history and bond with Montana’s Blackfoot River. His storytelling — from the fishing with his dad to the life and death of his Uncle Paul — is reliable, elegant and charming.

After a 30-year career as a journalist, mostly as a correspondent for the Chicago Tribune in D.C., the younger Maclean took to writing well-received nonfiction about wildfires in the American West. He hadn’t considered a family memoir.

hen, he caught a big trout — a really big trout — while fishing a stretch of the Blackfoot that his father memorialized in “A River Runs Through It,” published in 1976. He wrote about that fish, “the fish of a lifetime,” he called it, for a local club of anglers, and then, with some prodding, expanded the tale for a regional magazine. That was the end of it, he thought, until a couple years later when an editor unearthed the magazine article while on vacation in Montana. Did Maclean want to write a book?

“I thought this was going to be a big fish story, but then it turned into something very different,” says Maclean, now 78. “I don’t call it a memoir. I call it a chronicle. A memoir is about you, and this isn’t all about me.”

 

The Mysterious Disappearing Natural Gas In The Bakken -- June 7, 2021

Note: this was done quickly during a lot of distractions. There may be typographical and content errors. But the general theme holds true. 

In all the examples below, there are nine columns.

The last three columns have to do with natural gas over the given month.

The sum of the last two columns "should" equal column #7, MCF produced. If not, the question is where did that natural gas go that is produced but neither sold nor vented?

A reader who has been following this for awhile and has sent me observations before regarding this issue, sent me this note today regarding four wells that came off the confidential list today and over the weekend:

That WPX well #37830 produced, but did not sell or flare, 100,000 cubic feet of gas per day its first month online. 

The MRO well #37250 produced, but did not sell or flare, 66,000 cubic feet of gas per day its first several months online. 

In contrast, Oasis has no such unidentified 'spread' in their gas production/sold/flared categories. That is, those 3 numbers add up precisely.

Observations ... 

Some effective gas lift is being used and - importantly - it is being used right from the start of production.  (By MRO and WPX, at least, in these instances). 

The "dreaded decline" in Bakken wells is very apt to take on a much shallower profile as gas lift can be an exceptionally effective means of recovering oil.

While the initial costs can be higher in installing the needed hardware, longer term operating costs can be much cheaper as sand problems, gassy flow through and other issues that damage ESPs are avoided when using gas lift.

The question: what innovations are companies like WPX and MRO using to produce more efficient lift with natural gas?

And, of course, the next question, will we start to see this in other companies, like Oasis.

I wonder what CLR numbers show. Randomly, I will simply look at one recently reported CLR well.

36056, A, CLR, Gordon Federal 15-8H, Haystack Butte:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	22453	22583	13526	35761	33582	2003
BAKKEN	3-2021	30	17727	17660	13047	32814	31305	1248
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	22934	22963	17309	41064	37484	3420
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	35539	35537	25527	58806	54263	4368
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	34035	33907	28894	55171	48279	6696
BAKKEN	11-2020	18	29759	29576	23676	49349	42716	6503
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	2	273	273	684	0	0	0

If I did the arithmetic correctly, CLR's numbers are similar to those of Oasis.

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The wells referenced by the reader from above:

• 37830, drl/NC, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL, Heart Butte, first production 4/21; t--; cum 31K 4/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	31374	31161	34371	28457	23361	1597
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 37250, 3,418, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer, t12/20; cum 144K 4/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	26138	26162	27625	24432	22576	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	27518	27485	39267	23413	21362	90
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	23369	23553	39883	24338	18115	4551
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	31348	31129	50677	30060	22087	5761
BAKKEN	12-2020	26	36013	35709	64158	24592	19883	2262
BAKKEN	11-2020	2	0	0	447	0	0	0

• 36552, 507, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B, Banks, t12/20; cum 111K 4/21; Oasis Thelen wells tracked here;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	25248	25253	25954	82328	81086	1071
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	27818	27756	29419	72664	69257	3230
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	26041	26040	30895	79503	78451	892
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	26198	26191	43888	79784	78649	957
BAKKEN	12-2020	19	5656	5646	14256	14149	13772	302

• 36551, 486, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks, t12/20; cum 78K 4/21; Oasis Thelen wells tracked here;

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	14992	14998	25285	39418	38751	495
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	17589	17554	30826	42658	40754	1727
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	21447	21443	39932	67127	66211	755
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	17090	17090	40991	52878	52053	647
BAKKEN	12-2020	22	6519	6507	21001	14478	14087	288

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Where's USAA?

Hunt Oil Company With Three New Permits -- June 7, 2021

Active rigs:

$69.27	6/7/2021	06/07/2020	06/07/2019	06/07/2018	06/07/2017
Active Rigs	21	12	64	60	52

Three new permits, inclusive, #38348 - #38350:

• Operator: Hunt Oil Company
• Fields: Green Lake (Williams); Smoky Butte (Williams)
  
• Comments:
• Hunt Oil Company has three new permits;
• one permit will be for a well in Smoky Butte, Lot 1 section 6-159-100,
• it will be 258 FNL and 325 FEL;
• Hunt also has two new permits for two wells in Green Lake, also in Lot 1 section 6-159-100;
• these two wells will be sited 338 FNL and 355 FEL; and, 338 FNL and 385 FEL.

Four permits renewed:

• Petroharvester (2): two LIG2 permits in Burke County;
• Sinclair Oil and Gas: one Nelson permit in Mountrail County;
• MRO: one Sophia permit in Dunn County;