Merry Christmas: The Mid-Day Christmas Eve Edition -- December 24, 2020

Report: mortgage rates hit record low for record 16th time this year. 

Fossil fuel is dead. Long live fossil fuel!: China issues higher oil quotas for 2021. Link to Charles Kennedy. Too bad Russian and Iran will be the big beneficiaries as Biden environmental team shuts down the US oil sector.

The never-ending story: some reports suggest we have a deal! Brexit. But later, from EU's Michel: "The process isn't over." LOL. 

Another never-ending story: let Biden deal with it. US extends protections for Citgo from PDVSA creditors through July, 2021.

GM: recalling almost a million vehicles; apparently some concern that seat belt brackets may not have been secured to the seat frame. Only question I have: how in the world does that happen? 

Herd immunity: WHO dismisses the concept.

$600: not so fast. House, Senate, Trump seen in disarray over Covid relief. Who's in charge here?

AAPL:

• coronavirus led to much high sales of laptop, desktop computers in 2020; shipments of PCs estimated to be up 15% compared to last year;
• even better: Apple Car won't require Tim Cook to actually build anything
• every year, a new group of first graders get their school-issued iPads pre-loaded with the SeeSaw app and WebEx (Cisco)
  

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The Book Page

The Food Lab: Better Home Cooking Through Science, J. Kenji López, c. 2015. Link here. A chance discovery. 

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The Weber Grill Page

Grilling: the "snake" method. This is really, really cool. Link here. And, here.

I had a most wonderful dinner last evening prepared by a grill master. He had two large gas grills on the patio, state of the art, and an old Weber grill. He only used the Weber. With no special attachments or gimmicks, he can grill "almost" anything and even use the standard Weber grill as a smoker. Pretty amazing.

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The Rub

For wings: 

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- December 24, 2020

Active rigs:

$47.94	12/24/2020	12/24/2019	12/24/2018	12/24/2017	12/24/2016
Active Rigs	14	56	69	53	41

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: everything you need to know about the Cushing oil hub, previously posted by RBN Energy. Archived.

Cushing. This small town in central Oklahoma is the center of the U.S. crude oil universe, with prices at the Cushing hub serving as the reference price for all of the crude produced in the U.S. — and given the role that U.S. oil has assumed on the global stage, one of the most important determinants of global crude oil pricing. Considering the hub’s significance, it’s frequently surprising to industry veterans just how misunderstood Cushing can be. Like, for example, how SHOCKED the world was when Cushing prices dropped below zero back in April.

Cushing traders had seen that coming for weeks — the only surprise to them was how far the price plunged that crazy Monday morning. It’s easy to see how something as enigmatic and complex as Cushing might be misunderstood — or underestimated — if you’re not familiar with its history, its inner workings, and its many crucial roles in both the physical and financial crude oil markets. It’s also tempting to think you can get by with only a passing knowledge of Cushing and how it operates. Au contraire! Cushing really matters, and market participants ignore it at their peril. The good news is that there’s finally a combo encyclopedia and user’s manual for “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.” Today, we examine the hub’s significance to producers, refiners, midstreamers, marketers, and traders.

From Oilprice today:

Update On The CBR Derailment Earlier Today -- December 23, 2020

Link here. 

Federal and local authorities were investigating a fiery oil car train derailment north of Seattle near where two people were arrested last month and accused of attempting a terrorist attack on train tracks to disrupt plans for a natural gas pipeline.

Officials were asked about recent attempts to sabotage oil trains, but they said the investigation was just beginning.

Last month federal authorities in Seattle charged two people with a terrorist attack on train tracks, saying they placed “shunts” on Burlington Northern Santa Fe tracks. “Shunts” consist of a wire strung across the tracks, mimicking the electrical signal of a train. The devices can cause trains to automatically brake and can disable railroad crossing guards.

Much more at the link.

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A Musical Interlude

EIA's Weekly Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Gasoline Demand Data -- December 23, 2020

Weekly petroleum report, link here.

• US crude oil in storage decreased by 0.6 million bbls from the previous week;
• US crude oil in storage is now at 499.5 million bbls;
• refineries are operating at 78.0% of their operable capacity;
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.3 million bbls last week and are about 10% above the already-fat average for this time of year;
• US crude oil imports averages 5.6 million bbls per day last week, up by 140,000 bopd from the previous week;
• jet fuel supplied was down 32.9% compared with the same four-week period last year;

Natural gas fill rate, link here:

Gasoline demand, link here:

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Lego

There are many ways to "filter" items over at the Lego website. One way is by price. At the highest price, over $199, every set is "out of stock."

Lego has three pages of "high-price" sets, about eighteen sets on each page. 

I couldn't get a screenshot of whole page even after zooming out, but here is an example of what I'm talking about:

Every high-priced Lego set is now "out-of-stock."

There is a retired pirate ship that can be had for $240 at our local "Bricks and Mini-Figures" store which is about the price it originally sold for. One can also find it from a third party seller on Amazon for $599. Pretty amazing. 

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Fanciful AppleCar Reservations And Pricing

The tea leaves suggest it is only a matter of time before a monthly subscription will be the way folks buy EVs in the future. 

For example:

• Apple sets the base price of their 2024 model for $100,000;
• one can reserve a 2024 model by subscribing;
• the initial down payment is $1,000 and then a monthly "fee" of $500 until the car is delivered;
• the initial down payment gets you a coupon to purchase the car at 75% of the advertised price ($100,000 in this case);
• the delivery date is stamped on the coupon (first come, first served method) and guaranteed; every month delay would require the regular $500 subscription fee but the price of the AppleCar would come down by a similar amount each month until delivery;
• the AppleCar like all Apple products would have a warranty for one year, with an extended AppleCarCare warranty up to ten years, also at a subscription/streaming price;
  
• the coupon is transferable with no strings attached, and can be bought and sold like any other equity; the AppleCarCare warranty would also be transferable.

The price points shown are just pulled from thin air, but "Disney analysts" could easily come up with the best price points for the initial down payment and the monthly "fees."

China Isn't Alone Cutting Off Electricity To Its Residents; Same Thing In Another Third World "Country" -- December 23, 2020

Link here. 

Summary:

• Southern California Edison and Sempra Energy could cut power to 225K homes and businesses on Christmas Eve as a possible wind storm raises wildfire risks in the southern and central portions of the state. 
• Edison says it may cut power to more than 193K homes and businesses across seven counties from the hills north of Los Angeles east to the Mojave Desert, and Sempra's utility serving the San Diego area says it may need to switch off electricity to more than 31K homes and businesses starting today, with the blackouts possibly lasting into Christmas morning. 
• The blackouts could affect more than 670K people based on the size of the average household. 
• Utilities across California have cut electricity repeatedly this year over fears that power lines could fall into dry brush, and power shutoffs in the southern half of the state earlier this month affected nearly 1M people.

Again, Californians will never be told the "real" reason for this. 

If Californians aren't buying diesel generators .... in fact, it seems like a better idea to buy a diesel / natural gas / propane generator than to install solar panels on one's roof. Just saying. $1200 and free shipping from Amazon. Link here.

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Tusk