Friday, December 18, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Late Evening Edition -- December 17, 2020

Quadruple witching hour: 3:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. ET, tomorrow, December 18, 2020. Link here

From Mark Perry today: chart of the day


A Merry Christmas 2020 card from the US frackers, who have accessed oceans of shale gas with advanced, made-in-the USA technologies and helped bring US CO2 emissions this year to the lowest level since 1988! Who needs the Paris Climate Accord? And speaking of fracking here’s the next exciting phase of the fracking revolution — the geothermal energy revolution. “The greens desperately need geothermal fracking, they just don’t know it yet.”

Notes From All Over, The Late Evening Edition -- December 18, 2020

First things first: wow, what a great Barbara Stanwyck movie on TCM. And, wow, what a cutie Ms Stanwyck was at that age. LOL. Absolutely amazing: one of her better roles, I do believe, and it's not even mentioned in her wiki entry. Later: wow, wow, wow. Now this, following the Barbara Stanwyck movie. Now The Apartment. TCM showed this movie just the other night and now they're showing it again, and I will enjoy it just as much the 21st time viewing it as the first time.

Apple in California: closing stores. Covid-19 out of control. Link here.  By the way, I was unaware of this, but apparently there is now a serious question whether "herd immunity" is a "thing" any more. Apparently for pathogenic viruses in the past, "herd immunity" was a "thing," but Covid-19 is now like global warming. Impossible to contain. Without "herd immunity" we're all doomed. 


California has a long way to go. California, at less than 5%, is a long way from North Dakota's penetration rate of 11.6%. Something tells me California's health system was ill-prepared for this pandemic. Let's see: how many years of focusing on that Bullet Train? Just saying. By the way, it looks like the Golden State is counting on the Biden administration to save this debacle. LOL. That's fine with me. I have no dog in this fight. I'm simply getting out the popcorn to watch this all play out. LOL.

Backwardation / natural gas: from social media today --


Compare the graph above with the graphic above at this link

And then this:

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Movie Night

The other night I mentioned that it was always tough for me this time of year when various media outlets air glossy, sleek videos of movie stars and personalities who passed away the previous year. It's not as difficult watching the following but it brings back lots of memories:

Notes From All Over, The Early Evening Edition -- December 18, 2020

Link here.

You don't often see this: admitting that your competitor's older chip outperforms your newer chip. Maybe I'm misreading this.

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We've Been Working On The Railroad ...

UNP / BRK-B: thinking out loud. Tesla has moved to Austin.

  • Q: to which state will those cars be shipped?
  • A: California
  • Q: how are cars shipped in the US?
  • A: rail
  • Q: which rail(s) have a regional monopoly between Texas and California?
  • A: UNP and Burlington Northern (BRK/Warren Buffet)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Wow!

Darden Restaurants: indicated annual yield of 1.03% paying 30 cents/share per quarter, today announced a dividend increase to 39 cents/share.

7 / 30 = 23% increase in its dividend. Link here. Record date, 1/8/21; payable date, 2/1/21.

Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; The Capital Grille; Seasons 52; Bahama Breeze; Yard House; Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen; Eddie V's. 

Trading near it's 52-week high. 

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MLPs

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Let Them Eat Cake

Petroshale With Permits For Ten Tahu Wells In The Best (?) Field In The Bakken -- December 18, 2020

Active rigs:

$49.10
12/18/202012/18/201912/18/201812/18/201712/18/2016
Active Rigs1553695140

Seven permit renewals:

  • Equinor (6): five Pyramid permits and one Hawkeye permit in Williams County;
  • Bruin (3): two Fort Berthold permits in Billings County; one Storhaug permit in Williams County;

Ten new permits, #38030 - #38039, inclusive:

  • Operator: Petroshale
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Petroshale has permits for ten Tahu wells in Antelope oil field, 
    • there are formation targets: middle Bakken; first and second bench of the Three Forks;
    • SENE 29-152-94; there appear to be two "rows," one group about 1940 FNL and between 477 and 727 FEL; the second "row" about ten feet to the north at 1890 FNL and between 451 and 631 FEL;
      • 38030, Petroshale, Tahu 1MBH, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1939 FNL 727 FEL;
      • 38031, Petroshale, Tahu 1TFH, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1939 FNL 677 FEL;
      • 38032, Petroshale, Tahu 2TFH, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1940 FNL 627 FEL;
      • 38033, Petroshale, Tahu 2MBH, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1940 FNL 577 FEL;
      • 38034, Petroshale, Tahu 3TFH, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1940 FNL 527 FEL;
      • 38035, Petroshale, Tahu 3MBH, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1941 FNL 477 FEL;
      • 38036, Petroshale, Tahu 1TF2H, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1890 FNL 631 FEL;
      • 38037, Petroshale, Tahu 2TF2H, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1890 FNL 571 FEL;
      • 38038, Petroshale, Tahu 3TF2H, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1890 FNL 511 FEL;
      • 38039, Petroshale, Tahu 4TF2H, Antelope, SENE 29-152-94, 1891 FNL 451 FEL;

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The Petroshale Tahu Permits

Updates

April 27, 2021:

Original Post

This is really very interesting. The wells are already confidential so we don't know the spacing unit, but the location certainly suggests they are running north - south. The question is whether five horizontals will run to the north and five horizontals will run to the south.

The graphics:




Based on wells in the general area, it seems most likely these horizontals will run to the north. If so, then here are the wells to the north, running south:

 
The producing wells in the graphic above:
  • 33005, 1,560, Petroshale, Petroshale US 3H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 488K 10/20;
  • 33004, A, Petroshale, Petroshale US 4H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 384K 10/20;
  • 32767, 2,759, Petroshale, Petroshale US 8H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/17; cum 577K 10/20;
  • 33010, 1,391, Petroshale, Petroshale US 12H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 201K 10/20;
  • 33204, 1,934, Petroshale, Petroshale US 13H, Antelope-Sanish, t5/19; cum 488K 10/30;

Comments: these are incredible wells, and now Petroshale plans to put in ten more wells in the same area targeting three different formations. This takes me back to the early days of the Bakken boom. There are many, many comments I could make regarding these wells, but I lose interest anticipating the push back I will get from from inappropriate exuberance. Suffice to say these wells are telling a story about the Bakken that a lot of folks foretold back in 2010.

One observation: #33010 -- 201K cumulative bbls crude oil in less than eighteen months.

Notes From All Over, Part 6 -- Mid-Afternoon Edition -- December 18, 2020

Colleyville Heritage High School: holy mackerel. Our apartment complex is located practically on the grounds of the aforementioned high school. Police sirens are blaring and just now four huge -- and I mean, huge -- brand-new buses have just driven by -- destination unknown. I know it's the last day of school before the Christmas break, or to be more politically correct, the "winter break," but that would not explain the four huge buses and entourage of POVs. It's not the girls state volleyball tournament; that was last month in which our high school team, Grapevine High School, made the quarter-finals but did not advance to the semi-finals. Later: link here. Wow, the game's not over -- still in the fourth quarter, but it's a blowout --

Aha! Here it is! The 2020 high school football championships! Wow. In Class 5A Division 1 the Colleyville Heritage team will play in the semi-finals, 6:00 p.m. tonight at Wichita Falls' Memorial Stadium, against Amarillo. The trip will take about three hours to get there. Wow, wow, wow. 

Later: it's not over yet -- it's only the fourth quarter but it's a blowout, link here (the final was 44 - 25):

Covid-19 vaccine: the press seems to delight in the roll-out of the vaccine, but based on news reports coming out of North Dakota, if the initial batch of vaccine is administered to a very well-thought-out targeted audience, even a "minimum" number of vaccinations could have quite a multiplier effect, breaking the chain of transmission. This will be fascinating to watch. 

Note: Johns Hopkins updated their daily graphics just moments ago, at 1:58 p.m. ET, December 18, 2020.

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Weekly CDC Flu Update

Link here. This issue was released at the usual time. The next two issues will be released on the Monday following the regularly scheduled Friday.

From today's update:

  • except for Oklahoma, which is now yellow, the entire country is green / light green (minimal flu activity);
  • no new influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to the CDC this past week; the total for the 2020-2021 season stands at one;
  • specimens tested in the past week by clinical laboratories: 29,578
    • number positive: 75 (or 0.3%)
  • specimens tested by public health laboratories: 15,298
    • number positive: 7 (0.05%)
  • this year's "percentage of visits for influenza-like illnesses is well below the national baseline and well below the historic levels; for example:
    • 2017 - 2018: 7.5%
    • 2019 - 2020: 6.8%
    • 2018 - 2019: 5%
    • this season, 2020 - 2021: 1.5%, flat-lined/unchanged for the past six weeks;
  • bottom line: "seasonal flu" so far this year is either non-existent or being mixed in with Covid-19;

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The Art Page

I never understood Rothko. 

But, now, the epiphany!

The book: On Color, David Scott Kastan, c. 2018. 

I'm reading the second chapter on the color "orange." I now understand Rothko and Rothko has not yet been mentioned. I'm on page 54 and Rothko, according to the index, won't be seen until p. 155. 

But here it is, my epiphany: Yves Klein, in the footsteps of Van Gogh ... from the text, page 54:

In 1955, Klein submitted a large, orange monochrome painting for the annual exhibition at the Salon des Réalités Nouvelles in Paris. the matte orange panel, titled Expression de l'univers de la couleur mine orange (mine orange is the French term for the pigment known in English as "orange lead," the same pigment Van Gogh had used in his still life), was, however, rejected by the organizing committee, unwilling, at least in Kleins' hardly disinterested account, to accept a painting that was just one solid color (une seule couleur unie). 
"You know," as Klein reported (or, better, parodied) what he was told about the jury's reasoning, "it's just really not sufficient; if Yves would agree to add at least a little line, or a dot, or simply a spot of another color, then we could show it, but a single color, no, no, really, that's not enough; it's impossible!"