Sunday, November 15, 2020

Notes From All Over -- The Late Evening Edition -- November 15, 2020

The market: will "we" go over 30,000 this week?

The market:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

SRE: one of my favorite companies. But the company scares me. A California company. From SeekingAlpha today (archived):

  • Sempra Energy, a $38.8 billion market-cap utility and energy infrastructure company, offers a 3.1% dividend and operates in four key markets: California, Texas, Mexico, and liquefied natural gas.
  • Like other utilities, the company offers upside as regional growth resumes in Texas post-Covid-19 shutdown and is expected to resume in California.
  • The company is one of the largest developers of U.S. LNG projects and has just scaled up to full-capacity operations at its Cameron, Louisiana facility.
  • Comments: I think SRE needs to look for acquisitions outside of California to offset California regulatory and policy concerns. Perhaps acquiring utilities like Black Hills Corp or MDU.  

Market cap:

  • MDU: $5 billion
  • BKH: $4 bilion
  • SRE: $40 billion

Or maybe SRE is a nice bauble for Warren Buffett which would minimize SRE's California risks. 

Maybe SRE needs to think Tex-Mex and get out of California.

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The Art Page

Don't you just love these paintings? All painted by the granddaughters between the ages of two years of age and eight years of age? The pumpkin may have been painted by Olivia before she was two years old; I can't remember.

The most recent addition, by Sophia, age 6. This has quickly become one of my favorites.

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An XTO Fettig Well With Nice Jump In Production -- November 15, 2020

An earlier post:

  • January 30, 2020: several recently fracked wells cut horizontally across these three wells, #18766 (Fettig), #20711; #20995; first month back, #18766 with a nice jump in production but others not reporting yet; follow a bit longer;

So, let's see what #20711, #20995, and #18766 are doing. One has been abandoned; one showed a nice jump in production; and one is just coming back on line.

  • 20995, 227, WPX, Blue Buttes 3-21H, Squaw Creek, t3/12; cum 197K 9/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202140851281790142
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-202016216420821805228601727
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20201000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-2019103902812904120246
BAKKEN8-2019281498144768027064901526
BAKKEN7-20192819862037833358912758
BAKKEN6-2019153603643016520390

  • 20711, AB/1,392, XTO, Lucy Lone Fight 16-22H, Squaw Creek, t19/11; cum 124K 4/19; off line since 4/19; and now on AB status;
  • 18766, 1,392, XTO, Fettig 24-22H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 115K 9/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020144916796656140386
BAKKEN8-202031379337201636405903326
BAKKEN7-202031484450501505518304470
BAKKEN6-202030501848552127536904636
BAKKEN5-202031591163192452632505568
BAKKEN4-202030601857232574644005707
BAKKEN3-202021395240472355425503676
BAKKEN2-202010002800
BAKKEN1-20203275025634120329
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20191011644412824602
BAKKEN6-2019293634309370800
BAKKEN5-20193138936910575700
BAKKEN4-20193038231210472107
BAKKEN3-20193141525510285903
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WPX's Wolverine Wells In South Fork Have been Fracked; Nice Wells -- November 15, 2020

This is so cool -- why I love to blog. 

Earlier this year, I asked whether WXP was getting ready to frack the Wolverine wells:

  • March 19, 2020: *************neighboring wells soon to be fracked? #37072, #37071, #37070, and #37069; watch halo effect on #21789, Enerplus Earth Lodge off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line for 9 days 8/20 but back off line 9/20;

Well, it turns out they were fracked, and they are great wells. The wells:

  • 37069, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HD, South Fork, t--; cum 77K over 52 days; cum 307K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202528474284942335420272169120
BAKKEN8-2020274864848427444423439428921268
  • 37070, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HZ, South Fork, t--; cum 74K over 56 days; cum 293K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020302795827970323531976615588811
BAKKEN8-20202646319461095133837281323250
  • 37071, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HC, South Fork, t--; cum 61K over 52 days; cum 239K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020272103921071212891487511981312
BAKKEN8-20202540002398214238128783245030
  • 37072, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HY, South Fork, t--; cum 55K over 51 days; cum 243K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202719906199232978316865143990
BAKKEN8-20202434728345704156826189224730

And the horizontal wells to the south:

  • 21790, 1,631, Enerplus, Tipi 148-93-22A-21H, South Fork, t8/15; cum 423K 9/20; cum 466K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020301732171816612693976994
BAKKEN8-2020104636504076122691
BAKKEN7-2020146306386001103236525
BAKKEN6-202030188418041470286620432
BAKKEN5-2020313240330124548006469697
BAKKEN4-20203033873190280369342908102
BAKKEN3-20202934143466339162873094102
BAKKEN2-2020293210322827308278457696
  • 21789, 1,908-->AB, Enerplus, Earth Lodge 148-93-22A-21H-TF, South Fork, t8/15; cum 328K 12/19, but erratic production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20209397208171466861380
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000315803158
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20202021430
BAKKEN12-201926620329240
BAKKEN11-20192676739116730
BAKKEN10-20193196114471941260
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Notes From All Over -- The Post-Augusta Masters Edition -- November 15, 2020

Golf: Dustin Johnson sets four records winning the Masters.

Tiger: I honestly couldn't figure out how Tiger Woods made a ten on a par-3 hole. I was actually watching the tournament but CBS cut away so many times from this debacle, no one really saw this train wreck developing in slow motion. This is the best I could find. It was remarkable how CBS completely ignored this story; the post-tournament interview with Tiger focused on how well he played after this hole. LOL. 

Here's how hole 3 played out:

NFL: only game on "free" television -- a 3 - 6 team playing a 6 - 3 team; and the 3 - 6 team imploding. One more reason NFL viewership in shambles. Nothing to watch.

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Back To Reproduction Numbers -- Chinese Flu -- November 15, 2020

PSA: I am neither personally nor publicly worried about a shortage of cleaning products this time around but a word to the wise: start to stock up. A six-week supply of paper products would be a great place to start. Walmart is starting to count customers again. 

Here we go again:


 I guess some families are going to have to be broken up to adhere to the 5-person limit.

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The R0 Factor

I can't recall if we discussed this on the blog. I do remember discussing this in a sidebar conversation with a reader some months ago. 

One link:

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. 

R0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. 

As R0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. 

For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population ... We calculated median measles R0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12–18. 

R0, various sources, generally accepted:

  • measles: 12 - 18
  • chickenpox: 10 - 12
  • seasonal flu (influenza, e.g., H1N1): 2 - 3
  • Ebola: 1.7 - 2.0
  • Chinese flu: 1.2

Basic reproduction number: wiki. 

From wiki and various other sources:

  • measles, 12 - 18
  • chickenpox: 10 - 12
  • polio: 5 - 7
  • smallpox: 3.5 - 6
  • Chinese flu: 2- 6 (but still, probably too early to say for sure)
  • seasonal flu / influenza: 1.4 - 1.6
  • tuberculosis: 0.26 in the Netherlands; 4.3 in China;
  • leprosy: below 1.0

The lower the R0 factor, the lower the percent required for "herd immunity."

The very, very low R0 factor for Chinese flu helps explain why even a family with one member getting infected, the others  do not become infected.

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Chinese Flu

November 15, 2020.

Link here: filter set to "yesterday."

Total cases / one million:

1. North Dakota at 8.3%
2. South Dakota at  7.3%
3. Iowa at 5.7%
4. Wisconsin at 5.2%
5. Nebraska at 5.0%

Reminder:

  • Spanish flu, 1918 - 1920 -- estimated that 33% of global population infected with the virus.

#29. New York at 3.1%
#40. California at 2.6%

Bottom line: we've got a long way to go.

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Maybe What We Need ... Proven Technology ....

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