Tuesday, November 10, 2020

BR With Five New Permits -- November 10, 2020

WTI: if this is not a head fake, or a dead cat bounce, happy days could be here again. 

Active rigs:

$41.36
11/10/202011/10/201911/10/201811/10/201711/10/2016
Active Rigs1555665238

Five new permits:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Lone Butte (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • BR has permits for four Tilton wells and one Harry Dunne well in section 7-147-97, most in lot 4
    • the wells will be between 639' and 436' FSL and between 1278' and 1224' FWL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35763, drl/A, Enerplus, Wisteria 149-93-21C-22H-TF, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 31794, drl/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-96-12D-1-1H, Charlson, no production data,

Ford Announces Further EV Manufacturing Plants -- November 10, 2020

A Reuters article but looks like a press release from Ford.

Having said that, absolutely incredible how the "Tesla economy" is moving. From Reuters/Ford:

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co said on Tuesday it plans to hire 350 more U.S. workers to expand production capacity for its electric F-150 pickup truck in Michigan and add assembly of electric commercial vans at a plant near Kansas City, Missouri.

The company said it also will add a second vehicle at the Mexican factory that is already set to build the Mustang Mach-E electric sport utility vehicle.

Ford will invest $150 million to add production of electric vehicle motors and transaxles at a transmission factory in suburban Detroit, retaining 225 jobs.

The automaker's latest electric vehicle investments are part of an $11.5 billion plan mapped out through 2022. Ford has promised the United Auto Workers union that it will invest $6 billion in U.S. factories to build electric vehicles.

Ford will increase production capacity for an electric version of its F-150 large pickup by 50% from its original plans, adding another 200 permanent jobs at a complex near its headquarters in Dearborn, Mich. Those jobs would be on top of 300 jobs previously promised for the electric F-150 line.

Utilities, like MDU, et al, need to stay on top of this. It doesn't take many EVs in one neighborhood to require a significant upgrade in the grid.

ACB Could Make A Huge Splash -- November 10, 2020

It only takes one US Supreme Court justice to agree to take a case, as I understand it. Could be wrong. But if that's true, ACB could certainly make a name for herself and go down in history, far outshining the current chief justice. Just saying. 

Later: see first comment regarding referrals to the Court -- 

It takes 4 justices to vote to grant Cert. for a case "take the case" for argument. However each Circuit Court is assigned to (normally one) Justice for "immediate" appeals. That justice can refer the "immediate" case to the full Court and issue emergency stays and such. These situations are not the actual resolution of the case, which only occurs at the full Court (9 justices).

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The "Pandemic"
and
Western Civilization

Link here.  

I don't agree with the premise of the article at all. The writer implies that the Chinese orchestrated the Wuhan flu pandemic from the beginning to destroy western civilization. No one could have predicted how this would have played out. Even the writer, Helena Handbasket, admits this virus is no more serious than "seasonal flu."

My worldview follows.

The Italians and then the Europeans in general panicked. Their response was worse than the disease. I have no trouble agreeing with those who suggest this is a terrible disease (I don't buy it but for sake of argument, I won't disagree). I just don't agree with those who say this "terrible disease" required the response that was taken, and I definitely don't agree with those who say the response was not severe enough. Hiden' Biden, Dr Faust, and Kash 'n Karry want at least six more weeks of total lock down and Biden/Harris plan to hire ten-thousand out-of-work census workers to monitor the lock down. 

But I digress.

So, the Italians and the EU panicked.

This president had few options. From my perspective he threaded the needle quite nicely but this is where the Hillary War Room went into overdrive. The "Hillary War Room" is a metonym. 

But regardless of what happened and why it happened, it is what it is. Let's move on. I won't entertain discussion on the forementioned.

The writer  mentions that the estimated number of retail stores closing will be upwards of 15,000. The closing of retail stores hardly proves the western economy as we know it will be destroyed. In fact, the western economy will come out of this stronger than ever. 

The writer than lists twenty-one major chains that have announced they are closing. Hellooooo...they were on death's doorstep years ago. In most cases, it is amazing they lasted this long. The only one on that list that surprised me was Walgreens. But if Walgreens fails, the chain will be bought by someone else and 90% of their existing stores will remain but with a different name. 

But Sears? I thought it was dead twenty years ago. K Mart? Are you kidding me? K Mart closing is a sign of the demise of western culture? LOL. Now, if Walmart were to announce its closure the writer might be on to something.

Here's the bottom line. "Western culture" -- whatever that was -- economy, technology, politics, energy -- was headed in a certain direction and the difference between 2020 and 2035 would have been notable. The "response" to the pandemic and the pandemic itself simply "telescoped" those fifteen years into five years, from 2020 - 2035 to 2020 - 2025. 

With technology, why are folks still working in high-rise offices? The pandemic proved quickly that working from home is incredibly more efficient and rewarding. Telemarketers do it all the time. Farmers and ranchers have been working from homes since the demise of the hunter-gatherer economy.

Travel? How much of the travel industry was driven by business men and women flying to conferences when Zoom meetings and Webex would have been so much more efficient. Number one complaint from business men and women: all the flying they have to do. A full day of travel on Monday for an inefficient three-day meeting followed by a full day of travel back home on Friday. Blue collar workers are expected to work full five-day, maybe six-day, weeks. White collar men and women: they were expected to work Tuesday through Thursday, travel on Mondays and Fridays. 

Sports events? One-hundred thousand people in a stadium? We've been doing that since the days of Caesar Augustus. Perhaps with technology we could watch these games on television? And, if we didn't like how the game was going, we could use AI and change the ending for our own personal enjoyment. For example, Dallas Cowboys fans would have AI installed that showed no interceptions by Garrett Gilbert and the Cowboys defeating the number one team, the Pittsburgh Stealers, this past weekend. What's not to like?

Politics? We now have the husband of the Speaker of the US House owning the computers that count the votes, or so I'm told, and the mainstream media declaring the winner based on faxes received from the Hillary War Room. Did I mention that the Hillary War Room is a metonym? This was going to happen by 2035 based on tea leaves, but the pandemic simply telescoped this to happen in one election cycle. Wow.

Remote learning? Incredibly efficient. Huge cost savings. Harvard has been doing this for decades. Professionals have been doing this for decades. I wonder if the number of MBAs obtained through distance learning exceeds those who paid gazillions of dollars in dormitory rent to live on campus when they could just have easily done it from home. In their pajamas. Something called "executive MBAs" were awarded through on-line learning. The only travel, maybe: a graduation ceremony.

Those twenty-one chain stores will fail but trucking companies and logistics companies will replace them. The most common truck sighted on my trip from Dallas to Tucson and back? FedEx. Then Amazon. 

This meme that Papyrus failed due to the pandemic is ludicrous. When was the last time you visited a Papyrus store? Probably not since the Pharaoh's daughter found Moses. How many folks even knew a store called Papyrus existed outside of Cairo? We had a Papyrus store just down the road and we often visited a Papyrus store at the malls in California -- over-priced, and everything at those stores could be bought online. 

Anyway, enough of this. You get the gist. I need a cup of coffee. From a Keurig coffee maker ordered from Amazon. And at 67 cents per K-cup al lot less expensive than a $3.00 cup of black, sugar-free coffee from Starbucks.

10-Year Treasury: Trending Toward 1% -- November 10, 2020

Link here

I'm not following this but it is in my social media stream and I'm getting a lot of tweets and re-tweets on the ten-year Treasury (lousy grammar but I'm in a hurry). Whatever.

ENB: Re-Posting This Little Nugget -- November 10, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

From Fitzsimmons over at SeekingAlpha:

Heading into winter season, ENB's underappreciated Union Gas utility - the largest gas utility in North America by volume - will shine.

More from the post:

The Q3 EPS report was solid. Financial highlights included (all figures in C$):

  • GAAP earnings of $990 million, or $0.49/share, up two cents per share over the $0.47/share in Q3 of 2019.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $2,997 million, compared with $3,108 million in 2019.
  • Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $2,302 million, compared with $2,735 million in Q3 of 2019.
  • Distributable Cash Flow of $2,088 million was relatively flat compared with $2,105 million in Q3 of 2019.
  • DCF of $1.03/share compares favorably to a quarterly dividend of $0.81/share for a coverage ratio of 1.27x.
  • Full-year 2020 financial guidance range is reaffirmed for $4.50-$4.80 DCF/share. At the $4.65/share midpoint, that implies a 1.44x coverage on the current $3.24/share annual dividend obligation.

After suffering a ~400,000 bpd reduction in mainline volumes early in the year due to pandemic demand destruction, Al Monaco, President and CEO of Enbridge, said:

"In liquids, Mainline heavy capacity is now fully utilized and full year volumes are tracking to the guidance range that we provided in May for the remainder of 2020, and we're on track to deliver $300 million of cost reductions in 2020."

As a result, the Liquids Pipelines Segment EBITDA of $2.09 billion was up 27% over Q3 of 2019 ($1.65 billion). That was a positive development considering overall results were down due primarily to an outage on the Texas Eastern mainline due to an explosion in May in Kentucky

Monaco gave an update on the repair work on the Texas Eastern pipeline:

"In Gas Transmission, the vast majority of work has been completed on Texas Eastern to ensure safe and reliable natural gas delivery and the system has returned to its normal operating capacity for eastbound service in time for the winter heating season. Construction on the T-South Expansion, Spruce Ridge and our modernization program continue to progress well."

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BLM Basketball

A reader noted that "breaking news" reports that BLM basketball will resume December 22, 2020, on the eve of Festivus. Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/nba-comes-back-on-dec-22-a-72-game-season. The social media comments are better than the story.

My reply:

I've been watching this story on ESPN for the past two weeks. Players did not want to start before Christmas.

Delaying start until after Christmas would result in $600 million loss of revenue for the BLM.

The owners prevailed.

And you are correct. No one is going to be watching BLM basketball over the Christmas holidays, but the networks will sell a lot of advertising.

I could have added the tie-in with Kwanzaa but thought that would be politically incorrect. By the way, Kwanzaa begins on Boxing Day here in the fifty-seven states on December 26, 2020, and ends not a day too soon on January 1, 2021. I have nothing against Kwanzaa; it just seems the festival would do much better in, let's say, October. Or September. Or March. But December is already pretty busy, and squeezing in another festive event during that period just seems ... well ... let's just say, someone should have looked at the calendar. 

It was bad enough when they added Festivus. 

By the way, as noted above, Festivus (for the rest of us) falls on December 23 this year (2020), as it does every year. From the internets:

While the Latin word festivus means "excellent, jovial, lively", and derives from festus, meaning "joyous; holiday, feast day", Festivus in this sense was coined by the elder O'Keefe. ... It is now celebrated on December 23, as depicted in the Seinfeld episode written by the younger O'Keefe.