Tesla "Losing Ground" In Europe; July Registrations Collapse-- ZeroHedge -- August 30, 2020

One may want to go back and look how Tesla made its money last quarter, but that's a story for another day. Today's story: if three's a crowd, a dozen or more is a stampede. And Tesla may be near the back of the pack. I've run out of fingers and toes.

Link here.

JATO's motor vehicle data of the European market reveals Tesla is quickly losing market share as consumers now have a more extensive selection of all-electric vehicle models to choose from. Overall motor vehicle registration in July slumped 4% year-over-year to 1,278,521; meanwhile, electric vehicle registrations boomed. 

On another note, I wonder if JATO used Altyrex technology? 

I mentioned the trifecta the other day: Intuit, CRM, and Altyrex. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Wow, what a digression.

Where was I? Oh, that's right. 

JATO's motor vehicle data of the European market reveals Tesla is quickly losing market share as consumers now have a more extensive selection of all-electric vehicle models to choose from. Overall motor vehicle registration in July slumped 4% year-over-year to 1,278,521; meanwhile, electric vehicle registrations boomed. 

More at the ZeroHedge link.

We'll post more later, but note this:

Half of the vehicles sold in the month had hybrid engines, with demand jumping 89%. 

The hybrid versions of the Ford Puma and Fiat 500 were most sought after by consumers. 

Then plug-in hybrids accounted for 55,800 units, up over 365% over the year, with an increase due mainly to new model releases such as Mercedes A-class, BMW XC40, and BMW 3-Series. 

As for pure electric vehicles, July registrations rose 43% over the last year to 53,200, with consumers now able to choose from 38 different models, as it appears pure electric vehicle models are flooding the market, crowding out Tesla: "Tesla posted a 76% decline to 1050 units following shipping delays to Europe, as a consequence of production challenges in its Fremont, California plant," JATO's report said.

European passenger car sales for 2019 at this link, about 15 million. 

Do the math:

• at a rate of 50,000 EVs/month (based on record month of July, 2020)
• 12 * 50,000 = 600,000
• 600,000 / 15,805,752 = 3.8%
• with increase due mostly to high-end luxury cars: Mercedes A-class; BMW XC40, and BMW 3-series
• disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors

From the linked Zero Hedge story, these two graphics:

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The Big Mistake -- And What Would That Be?

So, what's the "same big mistake?" I've read this article over at Business Insider three times and have three questions:

• who is "everyone"? the consumers, the manufacturers, the media, the environmentalists, the automobile enthusiasts, or someone else? 
• why the focus on passenger sedans when the big "EV" money and opportunities seem elsewhere ("last mile delivery," for example)? 
• what's the "same big mistake"? I think I know but the article wasn't particularly helpful answering that, if that was indeed the "big mistake."

Note: this article was published January 11, 2018, more than two years ago, but I don't think things have changed. 

US Sets Natural Gas Power Production -- August 30, 2020

I think this is third time I've posted this story in some form or another. It's a most incredible story, and it turns out it's even bigger than previously reported. From Watts Up With That.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, these nominally United States set a new record for natural gas-fired electricity generation in July 2020.

Figure 1. Daily US volume of natural gas consumed for electricity generation (billion cubic feet, Bcf). US EIA

On July 27, 2020, US power plants burned 47.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, beating the previous record by nearly 2 Bcf. The US also set a record for electricity generation from natural gas, peaking at “316 gigawatts (GW) in the late afternoon” of July 27.

Figure 2. Daily Lower 48 electricity generation by source. US EIA

 

The lower 48:

• natural gas: 45%
• coal: 24% (twice that of renewable energy)
• nuclear: 17% (could be less in the out years, although Bill Gates trying to salvage his investment)
• renewable energy: 12% (remember: renewable energy in this context includes a lot of hydroelectricity -- dams)

But look at this:

• new natural gas-fired net summer capacity: 8.4 GW
• new onshore wind capacity: 12.6 GW

So, it looks like a whole lotta wind. Hardly. Read the small print (you won't see this at PUC hearings):

The net addition of 8.4 GW of “new natural gas-fired net summer capacity” will actually be capable of generating nearly twice as much electricity as the 12.6 GW of new onshore wind capacity.  

Combined cycle natural gas-fired power plants can deliver >85% capacity factor.  

Wind generally struggles to maintain 30%.

• 0.85 x 8.4 GW x 24 hr/d x 365 d/yr = 62,546 GHh/y
• 0.3 x 12.6 GW x 24 hr/d x 365 d/yr = 33,113 GHh/y

And, natural gas works at night and when the winds don’t blow (or blow too hard).

Oh, one more thing. And this is huge -- this is before the EV revolution. A reader recently suggested his electricity consumption will increase ~ 20% once he switches from his ICE to his Tesla.

Advice for young men and women:

• 1800's: "go west, young man"
• 1950: "plastics"
• 2000: "software"
• 2020: "natural gas pipelines"

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Speaking of Tesla -- see next post.

Free Verse -- Sunday Morning Coming Down, Part 2 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- August 30, 2020

It's going to be one of those days, I can tell. I didn't take my meds. LOL. Where we go on the blog today is anyone's guess.

Can you believe this article was in Forbes. I said a couple of weeks ago that I needed to re-subscribe to Forbes. Memo to self. Subscribe. 

Turtles are key to tracing birds' "redness gene" back to the dinosaurs. Link here. Of all the animals out there, the one animal that continues to perplex biologists with regard to "where did they come from" and "how to classify them" are the turtles. This article may provide another connecting dot. From the linked article:

The gene responsible for red coloration and color vision in birds is also functional in turtles -- having arisen in a shared ancestor where it was probably used for color vision and possibly also for red coloration more than 250 million years ago

I recently wrote a piece about two elegant research papers that described how birds became red. Those papers, which were published side-by-side in the journal Current Biology, revealed that a gene-encoded enzyme, CYP2J19, converts yellow pigments obtained from the diet into red pigments, which red birds then use to color their feathers, bills and bare skin.

But manufacturing pigments for visual displays probably wasn't the original, ancestral, function for the "redness gene" because even birds that lack red coloring have a functional CYP2J19 "redness gene." In fact, it appears that CYP2J19 plays an important role in color vision. Specifically, CYP2J19 creates the red carotenoid pigments that are found in oil droplets within particular cone cells. These retinal cone cell pigments act as spectral filters to enhance color vision.

More:

Turtles are unique amongst reptiles because they have pigmented cone oil droplet, and their red oil droplet pigments also appear to be ketocarotenoids -- just as in birds. Like birds, turtles have excellent tetrachromatic color vision. Some turtle species, such as the painted turtles, Chrysemys picta, that are found throughout much of North America, have brilliant red pigments on their bodies, and this coloration appears to be acted on by sexual selection.

Where are turtles getting their red carotenoid pigments? Did the ability to manufacture ketocarotenoid pigments arise independently in birds and turtles? Or, as Dr. Mundy and his colleagues suspected, do birds and turtles share a genetic basis for ketocarotenoid synthesis? But if ketocarotenoid synthesis does have a shared genetic foundation in birds and turtles, which was the original function of CYP2J19; color vision or coloration?

Much more at the link. Archived.  

Sophia and I spend a lot of time watching and feeding the turtles at "Turtle Creek," Parr Park, Grapevine, TX. Per "bank-foot," this creek has more turtles than any other creek in the world. At least that's what I tell Sophia.

By the way, next project with Sophia: the night sky. There's a great app at the App Store for identifying night sky objects. Goal: identify a group of stars we can call "Barbie." Her own constellation. 

Oh, back to the original question: where did turtles come from; where do they fit in? From the linked article:

To answer this question, it was essential to look way back in time, back to that time when birds' and turtles' last common ancestor roamed the Earth. Thanks to newly-developed molecular and computer technologies, it was only recently found that turtles and archosaurs form a distinct clade (Archelosauria), independent from lizards, snakes and tuatara (lepidosaurs). Link here to wiki.

Archelosauria is a clade grouping turtles and archosaurs (birds and crocodilians) and their fossil relatives. Multiple sequence alignments of DNA and protein sequences and phylogenetic inferences showed that chelonians are the sister group to birds and crocodilians. Morever, there are about 1000 ultra-conserved elements in their genome that are unique to turtles and archosaurs, but which are not found in lepidosaurs (tuatara, lizards and snakes). Other genome-wide analysis also supports this grouping.

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My Wife and I on YouTube

You only have to watch the first minute of this video.

These Arms, Dwight Yoakam

Sunday Morning Coming Down -- August 30, 2020

Wow! What a great weekend, and it's not even over yet. Huge rainstorm in the DFW area last night; got lots of reading done -- particularly regarding color vision; saw the Daytona Coke 400; the third round of the BMW, the penultimate run-up to the Fedex PGA championship; a little TCM (including North By Northwest]; several new YouTube discoveries, and best of all, Sina. 

We'll do the links later. 

So, here we go. 

Hurricane Laura: the 20-foot-unsurvivable surge ... never mind. Turns out that didn't happen because the hurricane hit shore forty miles to the east of where the "last" models predicted. Had the hurricane hit 40 miles to the west ... well, we really don't know, do we.

Hurricane Laura: the winds. Still subject to great debate. I did note that the wind did not appear to live up to the Weather Channel's billing. I'm shocked! Shocked!

Tesla: losing ground in Europe even EV sales surge. This is quite a story. Many, many story lines. May re-post as a stand-alone. Will certainly update recent posts on EVs.

Canadian oil being shipped through the Panama Canal. Destination: Canada. Can't make this stuff up.

Dissing the US markets: sovereign wealth funds loading up on global equities, but not US equities -- the buzz: too pricey and uncertainty of US presidential elections.

Fracking: by the way, Joe Biden says he will not ban fracking.

Re-posting: that story on record-setting natural gas power generation. There's actually more to the story. It's even better than it looked. 

Politics: mainstream media not carrying this story -- "Michael Moore suggests Trump .... drum roll ... might win. First page of google search does not reveal any ABC, NBC, CBS, NPR, NYT, WaPo, or WSJ links. Story being carried by foreign press; The Hill, and Fox News. This story is not being reported because of the message but rather because the messenger has become irrelevant. But that doesn't mean he's not accurate.

Prediction: AAPL shares will plunge in price Monday. I anticipate AAPL will trade at $110/share, well below the $500/share close on Friday. Oh, that's right -- that 4 - 1 split. Okay. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

************************************I Did Not Know This
One of my favorite songs, not necessarily one of my favorite country western singers. But wow, I never guessed who wrote this song -- or at least, who co-wrote it -- John Prine -- died earlier this year, March, 2020, due to coronavirus. Huge underlying medical problems, of course, but still a huge, huge, huge loss. Amazing how a young man made good most unexpectedly, again, through sheer talent -- song writing, singing, and story-telling. 

I Just Want To Dance With You, George Strait, song by John Prine

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Week -- August 30, 2020

The wells:

• 37328, conf, WPX,  Nokota 24-13-12HQ, Squaw Creek,
• 36213, conf, XTO, Allie 31X-24HXE, Alkali Creek,
• 37133, conf,  WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HA, Squaw Creek,
• 33864, conf, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-156-96-2536H-5, Beaver Lodge,
• 37134, conf, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HB, Squaw Creek,
• 37135, conf, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HX, Squaw Creek,
• 35999, conf,  Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-8, Antelope,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2020	15327	28153
5-2020	24368	14591
4-2020	22716	20808
3-2020	20591	18454

• 33865, conf, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-156-96-2536H-4, Beaver Lodge, 
• 36002, conf, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-5, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2020	14038	24908
5-2020	19635	10787
4-2020	17593	16277
3-2020	21538	21026

• 35288, conf, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 31-27HU, Pembroke,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2020	14726	28010
5-2020	11299	22631
4-2020	30565	59459
3-2020	44161	82612

• 35928, conf,  CLR, Jamestown Federal 11-17H, Banks,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	22	7570	7658	11027	38985	38299	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	13180	13334	16960	46814	45902	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	9767	9495	16596	22561	22395	166
BAKKEN	2-2020	1	199	0	405	130	0	130

• 33947, drl/NC, MRO, Prior USA42-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay,