Civil Disobedience On Social Media -- April 20, 2020

I don't follow the news or social media often enough to know how fast things are changing, or even if they are changing at all, but if there is talk of social disobedience, this screenshot is as good as any to explain to folks why social disobedience might be an "it."

For the archives. I have no dog in this fight. I don't golf. LOL.

In our apartment complex, we now have 3-year-old kids outside wearing surgical masks. With no one else around except their parents.

On another note, the tea leaves suggest MLB season is "lost" this year. 

Trump Was Correct -- Again -- April 20, 2020

Full transcript from PowerLine:

Evidence is mounting, via antibody tests, that far more people in the U.S. have been infected with the Wuhan virus than has previously been known. The Santa Clara study that Dr. Jay Bhattacharya described here is part of that body of evidence, as is a study released today that covered Los Angeles County:

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.

That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.

*** The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.***

This is great news because it equates to a fatality rate in a range between .0014 and .0027.

Standard seasonal flu viruses typically have a fatality rate around .001. So the evidence increasingly suggests that the Wuhan virus is a little more dangerous than seasonal influenza, but of the same order of magnitude. This would appear to have significant public policy implications.

Be sure to scroll through the comments, especially those with statistics. It's quite staggering how the WHO, CDC, and mainstream media presented this pandemic. The Wuhan flu statistics suggest this may not be worse than seasonal flu, and, oh, by the way, we have a vaccine for "seasonal flu."

Was WTI As Low As Minus $40/Bbl Today? April 20, 2020

Did y'all notice this?

WTI closed at a minus $16.20/bbl. But it was actually worse during the day.

That -$16.20/bbl was actually $21.43/bbl better than it's low. Apparently WTI traded as low as -$37.63/bbl.

One wonders if mom and pop mineral owners will be required to pay operators upwards of $40/bbl? LOL.

WTI Closes: A Negative $16.20/Bbl -- Fast And Furious -- Notes From All Over, Mid-Afternoon Edition -- April 20, 2020

Breaking: Focus On Fracking, April 19, 2020, edition has been posted.

The weekly update is usually posted Sunday; internet access issues accounted for the delay. The official date of the post is April 20, 2020, but "technically" it's the April 19, 2020, edition, at least by my calculations. Macht nichts. It will take me awhile to go through it. The writer highlights two items:

• The writer estimates US production cuts at 1 million bpd for the next two months...no special insight, the big round number just makes the math easier.
• OPEC's 9.7 million barrel per day cut was based on October 2018 production...why October 2018? because it was their highest production in 3 years....based on their February production, their cut is closer to 7.2 million barrels per day....they'd have to cut another 9.3 million bpd to balance supply and projected demand...

Oil: fascinating.

Recommendation: keep your gasoline tanks full; don't let them get below 3/4ths or maybe even 7/8ths full. 

PowerLine: link here. The headline -- Saudi Arabian tankers streaming to America. Okay, so what? Where will they unload that oil? Lots of oil storage capacity remains mid-continent US, but I doubt there's much storage along the coast.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse:

WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl. That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand the global trading market.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

-$16.20	4/20/2020	04/20/2019	04/20/2018	04/20/2017	04/20/2016
Active Rigs	31	63	59	49	28

Four new permits, #37526 - #37529, inclusive -- the daily activity report only reports two new permits (#37526, #37527) but "well search" suggests there were four new permits as noted below --

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Dublin
• Comments:
• Crescent Point Energy has permits for four Pankake wells in SESE/SWSE 31-158-99, Dublin oil field;
• the wells will be sited in section 31, but will south into sections 6/7 where is one producing well -- 
• 21043, 554, Bruin, Pankake 157-99-6A-7-1H, Dubline, t12/11;cum 238K 7/19; offline 8/19; remains offline 2/20;

One permit canceled:

• Bruin, #25445, Ann H. Thome 5-25-36H; Strandahl oil field;

Tea Leaves Suggest "We" Are Reaching A Tipping Point -- Monday, April 20, 2020

Crash: oilprice server has crashed. I assume the site was overwhelmed with hits. Truly amazing. Third try: in. Other links at the site won't load. -- 1:24 p.m. CT -- April 20, 2020.

If folks don't see this crash as bigger than the 2008 / 2009 crash, .... I mentioned that some time ago. Spot price for OPEC basket was a minus $7 / bbl last week, so WTI has a lot farther to fall. And if anyone missed the story, Saudi Aramco is buying up assets from major European oil companies. If folks haven't listened to the rants in the movie Network, it might be a good time to re-watch the movie.

Lock down: tea leaves suggest "we" are reaching tipping point on nationwide / statewide lock downs. I'm looking for major news by the end of the week.

WTI: tea leaves suggest time for Trump administration to take action against Russia, Saudi Arabia. One item, link here.

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Cardinals In Sophia's Back Yard

There are a lot of cardinals in this neighborhood. At least three cardinals -- probably a family -- routinely show up at Sophia's house. On the way to the park we saw another male cardinal.