API crude oil inventory: surprise, surprise, another surprise, LOL.
forecast: a build of under 2 million bbls (1.848 million bbls to be exact, along with that false precision)
actual: 6.407 million bbls
Saudi Arabia: if the photos are real, and the news is real, and Saudi Arabia really has booked several VLCC to carry a gazillion bbls of oil to the United States, it's going to be quite a party here in the US.
First of all, can you imagine all those tankers off-loading on the west coast. The west coast can't possible sop up all that oil. We will have floating tankers out on the Pacific for weeks on end. The price of gasoline should plummet in California. Could we see $1.50-gasoline in San Francisco? LOL. And when does this happen? Right as the driving season begins and hopefully it will continue right through the summer into November, so all those folks can drive to the polls and vote for continued cheap gasoline. This could be a real hoot. But you know, even if we don't see $1.50-gasoline in California, I can't imagine the current $35-WTI clawing its way back to even $45 very soon. This will be fascinating to watch. Maybe $45-WTI is all we can hope for.
********************************* Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$34.48
3/10/2020
03/10/2019
03/10/2018
03/10/2017
03/10/2016
Active Rigs
55
67
59
44
33
Two new permits, #37439 - #37440, inclusive:
Operator: Oasis
Field: Sand Creek (McKenzie)
Comments:
Oasis has permits for two Wold wells
one Wold well will be in SWSE 34-153-97;
the other Wold well will be in Lot 3 section 6-152-97
Weather: it's going to hit 80° later this afternoon. It already feels that warm.
Grilling: a long story. To protect the innocent, I can't divulge the details. But yesterday while shopping at one of the more upscale grocers in the area, I was given a 1.5-pound roast for free. No gimmicks; no coupons; simply a gift paid forward. So today I'm going to grill a roast. This is the first time I've grilled a roast. We'll see how it goes.
Stimulus: looks like the president and the GOP are talking about a $300 billion "safety net" package of some sort focused on blue collar workers as they might be affected by coronavirus. It was somewhat hilarious when I listened to the US Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer. He was clearly against helping the blue collar workers. He was talking like a Republican. He says American CEOs want the coronavirus contained; not a "safety net" for their workers. Pretty amazing.
Never let a crisis go to waste: one almost has to laugh. First they said Trump did not act fast enough or spend enough. It was the US Congress that delayed getting him an "emergency" spending bill for him to sign, and then when they did, way more than he asked for. So, now, he's asking for $300 billion in tax relief to deal with the "fallout" from coronavirus, and the Dems are saying he's spending too much. Well-played.
Babies: in the space of one 7-day week, three new babies in the family. First, our younger daughter and son-in-law are the proud parents of two twins, Judah and Levi, born as scheduled, Tuesday last, at 11:30 a.m. Yesterday, one of my sisters sent the photo of her first grandchild -- a granddaughter born earlier yesterday in Tucson, Arizona. Pretty amazing.
***********************************
Grilling
Because we live in an apartment complex which does not allow grilling on the patios, I have a heavy-duty shopping bag filled with all the grilling "stuff" I need and keep it in the trunk of my car, along with charcoal.
My grilling bag with everything in it that I need:
Prepare and marinate about three hours before grilling:
four parts (I didn't measure, maybe 1/4 cup) vegetable oil
one part balsamic vinegar (do not overdo the balsamic vinegar; err on side of less is best, but don't omit)
one part soy sauce
one-half part Worcestershire sauce
[I would have added a tsp of smoke, but I couldn't find any in the refrigerator]
some garlic powder (if no cloves)
1 tsp pepper
1 tsp salt (I used to not use salt but salt is important for reasons than just flavor)
[another recipe suggested brown sugar so after an hour of marinading, I added a quarter-cut of brown sugar; be careful with the brown sugar; less is probably best; o/w too sweet]
The roast with a wonderful marinade before grilling:
Grilling on indirect heat (of course, the Weber is covered while cooking; cover removed only for the photo). Note that the aluminum foil is left open just a bit at the top:
Post script: wow, it turned out well. I know I'm in the minority on this, but I agree with those who say all one needs is a Weber grill. It is amazing. I've never used a meat thermometer before but this afternoon, grilling a thick roast it was definitely needed. Wow, it turned out moist. It was incredible. I can't believe how effortless it is to grill. Every time I learn something new. Maybe more later. I have to check the NDIC daily report.
Marathon Oil pre-market after announcing an immediate capital spending reduction of at least $500M from its previously planned 2020 capital spending budget of $2.4B.
The revised capex of $1.9B or less represents a ~30% reduction from 2019 levels.
Marathon says it will suspend further resource
play exploration drilling and leasing activity, suspend all operated
drilling and completion activity in Oklahoma, and "meaningfully reduce"
operated drilling and completion activity in the Northern Delaware.
The company says it maintains a strong financial
foundation, ending 2019 with ~$3.9B of liquidity and no near-term debt
maturities.
OXY: cuts dividend from 79 cents to 11 cents. Major CAPEX cut. OXY left the Bakken years ago; if a pure Permian play (from my point of view). From Street Insider:
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
announced today that its Board of Directors approved a reduction in the
company’s quarterly dividend to $0.11 per share from $0.79 per share,
effective July 2020.
The company also announced it will reduce 2020
capital spending to between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion from $5.2
billion to $5.4 billion and will implement additional operating and
corporate cost reductions. [A 30% cut in CAPEX.]
Einstein's War: How Relativity Triumphed Amid The Vicious Nationalism of World War I, Matthew Stanley, c. 2019. The author is probably a flaming liberal -- and I say that in a good way -- but the book looks good.
The author:
degrees in history, astronomy, physics, and religion
professor of history at NYU's Gallatin School Individualized Study
has published two academic books
has written for Physics Today, Physics World, and the Los Angeles Review of Books (I did not know people read books any more in Los Angeles)
he has appeared in documentaries on the History Channel, BBC, and NPR
He looks like someone with whom I would enjoy spending a weekend in a cabin in Vermont, maybe near Bernie, discussing astronomy.
Regional issue: I don't want to get to far in front of my headlights but if we start to see data that Italy has a handle on this, one starts to get the feeling that even for the United States, it's becoming a "regional" and a state problem with less and less a national problem. Governors are stepping up and making the hard decisions. The Princess Diamond, in hindsight, may have given the experts at the CDC a chance to really, really better understand this virus. [Later, the Italian numbers reported today may be incorrect; apparently the Lombardy region not accurately counted. This makes sense; I had expected a higher number. I was wrong, thinking that things were better than they really were, and I got ahead of my headlights.]
7:38 p.m. March 10, 2020: the Italian numbers reported today may be incorrect; apparently the Lombardy region not accurately counted.
This makes sense; I had expected a higher number. I was wrong, thinking
that things were better than they really were, and I got ahead of my
headlights. If accurate, the Italian numbers tomorrow, March 11, 2020, will be off the chart.
9:24 a.m. March 10, 2020: wow, this thing (coronoavirus) is
already over. I stopped by Schwab this morning to deposit some cash, and
then do some buying. While waiting I was forced to watch/listen to CNBC
but talk about an upbeat feeling. Regardless of the ankle biters, the
big story is that this is over. China is actually talking about getting
back to normal and banning flights from the US. LOL. Right now,
from the Chinese perspective, the US is doing worse than China with
regard to the number of new cases. On top of that, the number of new
cases will skyrocket as more testing kits become available. By country:
Italy: still waiting for today's numbers. Even if Italy has
things under control now, it will take two weeks for the numbers to show
that.
Cruise ships: a reader wrote me this morning to let me know that CBS
had a segment on seven (?) cruise ships off the coast of Florida and
folks were boarding. Speaks volumes. Look at the numbers from the best
case study we have so far, the Diamond Princess:
3,711 passengers and staff
700 test positive
6 deaths; not one death in anyone less than 70 years of age;
it
would be interesting to know how many deaths one sees on an average
cruise ship of 4,000 people, or if the numbers too low for one ship,
over the course of a year; from The [London] Telegraph:
Not
surprisingly, cruise lines are loath to talk about people dying on
their ships, but it happens. There are an estimated 200 passenger deaths
a year – actually remarkably few given the 21.7 million people
worldwide that cruise each year.
Italy: the numbers are out for the day. Best report we've had in several days. See note above.
