Hubbert's Theory Re-Visited In The Bakken, Part 2 -- September 4, 2019

I'm pretty much no longer tagging "halo," "production jumps," "parent-daughter uplift." The point has been proven in the Bakken. 

Wow, look at this one.

The well:

• I posted the data below and forgot to record the well, so who knows which well it is. It doesn't matter, does it? Oh, here it is: 
• 19503, 275, CLR, Simmental 2-21H, Elm Tree, t12/10; cum 320K 7/19; another very old well that should be in terminal decline by now;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	18099	18407	12471	27833	0	27436
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	21289	21587	15054	32623	713	31505
BAKKEN	5-2019	15	9243	8490	6833	15591	438	14990
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	247	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	25	1794	1903	865	3017	2618	75
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	2386	2110	1431	3319	2835	90
BAKKEN	10-2018	16	927	1226	743	1708	1479	45

 
And then this one. Mom and Dad mineral owners really don't care why this happens, so I will be looking at wells with increased production in greater depth less often than I used to do. I really don't care why Bakken wells show increased production at this point. For any number of reasons.

The well:

• 16792, 689, BR, Kermit 1-32H, Pershing, t5/08; cum 245K 7/19;

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	28	6696	6795	3090	9634	709	8855
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	11764	12180	3381	16672	40	16558
BAKKEN	5-2019	30	11194	10925	4679	15918	81	15763
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	10322	10474	6242	15166	3394	11698
BAKKEN	3-2019	30	6783	6917	3168	10314	3040	7200
BAKKEN	2-2019	23	4419	4238	1630	5020	4963	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	29	3857	3963	1487	1988	1916	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	5841	5983	2376	2515	2443	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	27	9431	9508	4396	3667	3600	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	9548	8968	5736	3296	3219	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	17	5060	5262	4608	2019	1977	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	2	136	0	2	28	27	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	26	789	674	127	458	393	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	1098	1403	154	716	588	54
BAKKEN	3-2018	23	912	704	332	709	652	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	10	171	0	4	446	421	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	727	966	103	1657	1583	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	793	704	126	1582	1414	91
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	688	685	163	1464	1338	52
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	606	658	110	1746	1669	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	935	912	130	1853	1776	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	755	685	153	1800	1726	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	850	1148	111	1954	1877	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	819	569	173	1912	1838	0

Hubbert's Theory Re-Visited In The Bakken, Part 1 -- September 4, 2019

According to Hubbert's theory, production should continue to decline in this well, but not only is it holding its own, production is actually up slightly. Note that this is a very, very old well by "Bakken" standards. Production is increasing.

The well:

• 18435, 2,376, off line since 10/18; t3/11; cum 308K 7/19; active as of 4/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2019	31	4241	4338	4408	2702	2693	0
SANISH	6-2019	30	4215	4159	5369	2984	2977	0
SANISH	5-2019	14	1400	1312	2633	927	924	0
SANISH	4-2019	2	227	210	477	214	213	0
SANISH	3-2019	0	0	45	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2018	1	6	12	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2018	6	393	739	90	767	761	0
SANISH	9-2018	25	1769	1864	494	3537	3526	0

Another example.

The well:

• 34058, 541, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 160K 7/19;

Total production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	26219	26205	10327	44035	26427	16199
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	28955	28856	8542	45230	33515	10373
BAKKEN	5-2019	12	10715	10611	3030	16489	13619	2240
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	109	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	1	136	145	95	272	241	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	13464	13449	5157	18619	4139	13905
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	16973	16983	5671	17743	2551	14704
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	20180	20185	6629	17394	3389	13540
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	25746	25910	10193	17416	6118	10762
BAKKEN	9-2018	25	16663	16381	7222	7879	5542	1539
BAKKEN	8-2018	14	662	662	6988	1930	1233	0

Another example.

The well:

• 18138, 1,161, CLR, Simmental 1-21H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 341K 7/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2019	12	1221	1208	356	1683	0	1438
BAKKEN	6-2019	27	4501	4768	2906	6641	285	5837
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	8467	8683	4722	13084	1172	11305
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	9165	8974	8211	12871	1957	10299
BAKKEN	3-2019	15	4646	4291	8249	6215	2521	3410
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	259	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1382	1381	413	3050	2340	93
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	1394	1285	374	2921	2199	107
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	1448	1433	425	3126	2418	93

Platts' "Periodic Table" Of Oil -- September 4, 2019

I'll look at this later. It was posted just four hours ago:


Link is here.

See comments below. A reader provides another link to show similar data, an interactive chart at wiki.

This Speaks Volumes About The Bakken -- September 3, 2019

A lot of DUCs. 

I posted this earlier today:

Eight wells came off the confidential list over the weekend: seven were DUCs.

I'm not going to post my thoughts on this but I think those who have followed the Bakken for the past ten years can probably come to the same conclusions to which I have come.

***********************************

Notes to the Granddaughters

Earlier today I had to take the 2007 Chrysler minivan to Firestone for a "check engine light." I dropped it off at seven a.m. and then walked to Starbucks about a block away.

About 90 minutes later, Firestone called to tell me they diagnosed the problem, and for $478.60 cents I could have the car back later that day. They said it would be ready about 2:00 p.m.

I finished my work by 9:30 a.m. at Starbucks and having nothing else to do decided to walk home.

It's just a bit over three miles from Starbucks to home. I normally ride my bicycle but I had been too lazy earlier to put the bike rack on the car when I brought the car into Firestone.

So, not many options, and the only good option was a three-mile walk on a frontage road. One walks about three miles per hour so I figured it would take one hour. And it did. Exactly 55 minutes to be exact.

And I found a quarter.

May and I went out for lunch. At 12:30 p.m. Firestone called to say the car was ready to be picked up. May had our other car, a 2011 Honda, so we stopped by Albertson's, bought a bunch of cookies for the Firestone folks, and went and paid for the car.

The "check engine light" is gone.

Space Holder For The Date-Time Bragging Rights -- September 4, 2019

Updates

Later, 2:57 p.m. CT: WTI up 4.41%; up $2.38/bbls; trading at $56.32.

Later, 10:52 a.m. CT: WTI now up 4.15%; up $2.24/bbl; trading at $56.18. Hard to believe it has anything to do with Hurricane Dorian. No stories yet over at oilprice.

Later, 9:30 a.m. CT: WTI now up 3.43% today; up $.185/bbl; trading at $55.79.  Oilprice still with no story why WTI is surging.

Original Post

Big energy story from yesterday. Just happened to catch it. Haven't seen it yet anywhere on the net (without googling). I'm going to wait an hour or so, and then if the story doesn't pop up I'll google it.

Even oilprice doesn't have the story yet.

If the story is bogus, I will delete this post. 

Date-time stamp: 9:05 a.m., September 4, 2019.

Some say the story is the reason that WTI spiked today, up 3.2% today, and gasoline jumped 25 cents/gallon in north Texas overnight. I don't buy that -- that WTI spiked because of "this" news, but we'll see.