ETP Plans VLCC-Capable Crude Export Terminal Near Nederland, TX -- August 8, 2019

Earlier we posted ETP's 2Q19 earnings. Now this: Energy Transfer plans VLCC-capable crude export terminal near Nederland.

For newbies (including myself on this one): Nederland is up-coast from Houston, right on the water, abutting Port Arthur.

If you can imagine a very, very flat triangle with Houston at the apex, and Nederland at the northeast corner, Corpus Christi would be several hundred miles to the southwest, at the third corner.

To wit (only because I'm getting so much grief): 

From the linked article:

• developer sees advantage in supply diversity from Canada, Bakken, Permian 
• joins seven other deepwater ports competing to move next wave of US exports 
• five VLCC-capable projects have filed applications for federal permits
• Other data points:
• the project would connect to the company's 28-million-bbl Nederland, TX, terminal
• Nederland: claims to have the largest above-ground storage in the country
• pipelines from Canada, Cushing, West Texas
• once approved, it would take at least 2 1/2 years to complete
• ETP owns the 570,000 bopd DAPL that moves about 40% of Bakken production
• ETP plans to expand that capacity to 1.1 million b/d by late 2020 (that would be next  year)
• five of seven planned projects have filed federal applications:
• Trafigura's Texas Gulf Terminal and Phillip 66's Bluewater Texas Terminal off Corpus Christi
• Enterprise's Sea Port Oil Terminal off Houston
• Enbridge's Texas COLT and Sentinal Midstream's Texas GulfLink off Freeport (Freeport is due south of Houston, right on the Gulf)

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Wow, Another Great Jobs Report -- Not Even Mentioned Above The Fold -- August 8, 2019

Exports: This is an interesting story out of Reuters: "over-piped" in the Permian. If that is accurate, and the tea leaves seem to suggest that story is accurate, it then seems the next chokepoints are storage at the terminals, overseas demand, and sea-going crude carriers. See this post.

Follow US crude oil and petroleum exports at this EIA site. Weekly crude oil export numbers here.

Jobless data released this morning, link here:

• prior: 215K
• prior revised: 217K
• consensus: 215K

Rig counts, Platts:

Improved efficiencies and rising well completion rates have allowed operators to increase production outlooks in second quarter guidance even as total rig counts have ebbed. New-well oil production per rig in the major basins is forecast at 715 b/d in August, up 10 b/d from 705 b/d in July, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

The greatest efficiency gains are forecast for wells in the Bakken, which is slated to edge up 15 b/d to 1,424 b/d, and in the Permian, which is expected 12 b/d higher at 684 b/d in August. Comment: Platts has active rig count at 57 for the Williston Basin.

EIA dashboards (these are still the "JULY" dashboards; August dashboards have not yet been posted):

• natural gas storage 
• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Active Rigs At 62 In North Dakota -- August 8, 2019

Active rigs: it will be interesting to see the Baker Hughes rig count for North Dakota this week. Last week, Baker Hughes had it at 47 or thereabouts. Today, the NDIC has the active rig count in North Dakota at 62.

Active rigs:

$52.76	8/8/2019	08/08/2018	08/08/2017	08/08/2016	08/08/2015
Active Rigs	62	65	56	34	73

No new permits today.

Nothing today.

ETP (DAPL) Transcript -- 2Q19

Link here.

On DAPL:

If you look at the opportunities and the need to provide capacity up there, nobody compares to DAPL. And the beautiful thing about DAPL is that all we have to do is add pumps to move materially more volumes. We've already secured volumes to move forward on an optimization project. However, as everybody knows we're in the middle of an open season, we're very optimistic how that open season will go. And we will add pumps and other needed facilities to meet the contractual obligations that we'll have at the at the end of the open season, but couldn't be better timing.

Financial:

Our adjusted EBITDA hit another record for the second quarter of 2019, coming in at $2.82 billion. This was up 25% compared to the second quarter of last year. DCF attributable to the partners of ET as adjusted also increased almost 25%. We continue to see very strong performances in all of our major businesses and very high utilization across all of our assets.

The NGL and refined product segments delivered another record quarter as a result of the ramp up of ME2 and record frack volumes that were driven by Frac VI coming online earlier than planned and filling up almost immediately. Pricing differentials between markets have also continued to remain strong for much of 2019, driving outperformance in our optimization businesses.

Distribution coverage for the quarter was two times which resulted in excess cash flow after distributions of $800 million for the quarter. In addition, since the end of the quarter, we successfully brought on Arrowhead III processing plant online ahead of schedule. And the second phase of our Red Bluff Express pipeline is now operationally complete. We're also pleased to say that at the end of July, we loaded our first barge at Nederland with natural gasoline.

As a result of this strong performance and the completion of several key growth initiatives. For 2019, we are revising our adjusted EBITDA guidance higher. We are all lowering our full year CapEx guidance. We expect our 2019 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $10.8 billion to $11 billion, which is up $200 million from our previous guidance range.

Much more at the link.

Nice Jump In Production In A Siverston Field XTO Well -- August 8, 2019

This page will not be updated.


The well:

• 27177, 1,943, XTO, Cherry Creek State 44X-36C, Siverston, t6/14; cum 217K 6/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2019	29	7154	6665	3343	24429	1622	22626
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	10826	11326	3480	37630	7749	29683
BAKKEN	4-2019	5	2489	1421	6010	8509	958	7522
BAKKEN	3-2019	1	0	0	33	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	8	319	692	233	1300	1179	94
BAKKEN	8-2018	19	1415	1039	1198	4846	4346	377
BAKKEN	7-2018	30	1126	1222	839	5006	4871	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	1596	1918	1147	7539	7352	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	1731	1535	1263	7823	7642	0

At a later date, need to check on #27178; #17456.