US Flooding -- US Corn -- Update -- July 4, 2019

From the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, update June 6, 2019: will 2019 be a repeat of 1993?

In March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that nearly two-thirds of the continental U.S. faced an elevated flood risk through May 2019.1 Residents in the Upper Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley continue to face the risk of historic, major flooding.

A year ago we had no idea this would happen -- in fact, I think the consensus was high temperatures and drought due to global warming-- but we know the temperature of the earth one hundred years from now.

Fossil Fuel Going Away Any Time Soon? -- The Road To Mexico -- July 3, 2019

From the EIA today (July 3, 2019), via twitter:

Domestic production has dropped significantly since 2014; really quite stunning how steep that curve has become. It looks like the big "shift" occurred in 2014 - 2015 time frame.

Everything suggests to me that "no one" is following the Mexico story. I'm convinced the "road to Mexico" will be the big story within the next five years. I currently follow it as one of the big stories.

Idle Rambling, Independence Day Eve -- The ADP Employment Report Today; The Record S&P -- July 3, 2019

Recession talk. 

A reader pointed me to Advisor Perspectives.

This is a nice analysis of the ADP employment report today.

This is the graph with minimal markings. Spend some time looking at this graph while reading the linked article.

Two comments regarding that linked article.

First, for the past five years, analysts have been talking about a "recession right around the corner." Some analysts suggest we are already in a recession. My interpretation of the graphic above suggests we are a) not in a recession; and, b) a recession is not "right around the corner."

This is based solely on the ADP employment report today and the comparison of this data with the data prior to and during the last recession.

The second observation, "why the market went up today," with the S&P 500 hitting a third consecutive record high:

• the ADP employment report, as good as it was, fell short of expectations
• if the economy is struggling that puts pressure on "the Fed" to cut rates
• investors are looking for any data to suggest that the economy is not doing as well as one might hope
• with the ADP coming in under expectations (quite a bit, in fact) that puts pressure on the Fed to cut rates 
• cutting rates is "bullish" for the stock market -- and that's why the market went up today, the third consecutive day with record highs

Finally, the graphic with some additional markings:

 

And I would comment on the additional markings, but it's late, and I'm heading to bed.

Keeping America Great -- Longest Expansion In US History -- Stock Market At All-Time High -- July 3, 2019

I missed this earlier this week -- how did that happen? Oh, that's right. I'm on vacation, haven't been following the news. I assume ABC, CBS,  NBC, MSNBC, and, CNBC had this covered.

From google:

Link here.

And then this,

Airport Construction On Schedule But Adequate Cement Is An Issue -- July 3, 2019

Link here.

Nip and tuck.

On track to open October 10, 2019, but due to flooding, adequate cement for the new Williston airport is a challenge. Officials have alternate sources of cement but not without a lot of quick thinking/quick acting.

From the linked article:

Officials at the Williston Basin International Airport are breathing a sigh of relief as a temporary solution for the facility’s ongoing cement shortage has been found.

The airport has been dealing with a lack of cement needed to complete projects at the site, most notably the runway and taxiway. Flooding in Missouri, where the supplier is located, has created a cement deficiency not just for Williston’s airport project, but for companies all across the upper Midwest.

Airport Director Anthony Dudas said the runway is a “critical timeline piece” to complete, as the paint markings and runway edge lighting must be completed before the FAA can do the required flight checks on it.

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Dim Sum In London