Apple Vs Everything Else -- February 5, 2019

On February 2, 2019, I posted the following:

Echo Dot/Alexa: incredible. I don't have "Kindle" yet but I'm tempted. Because of Echo Dot/Alexa, I now have Amazon Music -- another revenue stream for Jeff Bezos. I have had Amazon Prime (another revenue stream) which includes movies and television series (for "free") that will last me a lifetime. Everyone talks about the Apple "ecosystem." Amazon is beating Apple -- and this comes from Apple fanboy #3. If I had one thought on why this is occurring: Jeff Bezos releases products even before they get to the "beta" stage (some hyperbole here, but I'm trying to make a point) whereas Apple won't release anything until it's been vetted well beyond the "sell-by-date." Apple seems terrified of bad press. Best example: even Facebook/Mark Zuckerberg is "beating" Apple/Tim Cook. Everyone knows Facebook knows the privacy / social medial security worries are bogus.  Leonard Cohen wrote about the Apple/Facebook feud years ago. 

Now tonight, over at Macrumors: 

CIRP estimates that the U.S. installed base of smart speakers reached 66 million units last quarter, suggesting that HomePod sales in the country have totaled around 3.96 million units since the speaker became available to order in January 2018. Apple does not disclose exact HomePod sales figures.

By comparison, the Amazon Echo and Google Home accounted for a commanding 70 percent and 24 percent of the installed base respectively as of last quarter, with both products proving to be popular holiday gifts. 

Look at that percentage for Amazon: 70%. And Amazon does almost no advertising. Amazon is where Apple used to be. With regard to Echo Dot/Alexa, "it just works." No fuss, no muss. $25 and no further fees unless one wants a bit more and then it's just $8.99/month. $25. HomePod? $349.

Yes, I know that the Echo Dot and HomePod are not directly comparable, but on the other hand ....

But Amazon Echo and HomePod are directly comparable. Amazon's new Echo: $99. 

Amazon Echo: 70%

Google Home: 24%

What does that leave Apple? Less than 6%.

I don't think there's any way to recover in the near future. Maybe ever.

HomePod, EchoDot ... all under Tim Cook's watch. Completely missed it. 

Wow, That Didn't Last Long -- Angela Ahrends Departing Apple After Five Years -- February 5, 2019 -- Happy Lunar New Year

Link here.

She probably wants to spend more time with her family.

Deirdre O'Brien, Apple's current "Vice President of People," is set to take Ahrendts' place. O'Brien will be taking on new responsibilities for Apple's retail and online stores in her expanded role as Senior Vice President of Retail and People, reporting directly to Apple CEO Tim Cook.

During her tenure, Apple shares have seen a devastating drop in value, or so it seems. Perhaps that's just been this past six months.

And as usual, it will be the 207 comments (so far) that will be most interesting.

I do  have to admit the new store layouts are awful. As much as folks joked about the "Genius Bar," at least one knew where to go when one needed help. Not so any more.

API Weekly Crude Oil Draw -- February 5, 2019

From this link. A build of 2.514 million bbls. Note the "fake precision," again. 2,514,000 bbls. Around 450 million bbls in storage. Last week the API reported a build of 2.098 million bbls. More at oilprice.

4,000 / 450,000,000 = 0.000009 or 0.0009%.

4,000 bbls.

A DOT-111 tank car carries upwards of 35,000 gallons (830 bbls).

4,000 / 830 = 5 rail tank cars. Warren Buffett has that many BNSF oil tankers unaccounted for somewhere west of Omaha.

We'll see what the EIA data is tomorrow. Generally, EIA and API data do not agree all that closely.

This Is The REAL Russian Collusion -- While US Congress Dithers -- February 5, 2019

Updates 

February 6, 2019: OPEC: production has dropped to lowest level since March, 2015 -- Platts survey. Data points:

• total OPEC production dropped nearly one million bopd from December to January
• lowest since March, 2015
• December: 30.86 million bopd
• January: 29.89 million bopd
• Saudi Arabia:
• January, 2019: 10.21 million bopd
• pledged ceiling: 10.311 million bopd
• lowest since May, 2018
• crude oil exports: 7.2 million bopd; down 500,000 bopd

Original Post

Link here to The Wall Street Journal:

Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies are backing a formal partnership with a 10-nation group led by Russia to try to manage the global oil market, according to OPEC officials, in an alliance that would transform the cartel.

There were other stories earlier this week in very respected media outlets that Saudi Arabia and other Mideast princes were literally in the fight of their lives for their very survival. Back in 2014, or thereabouts, a lot of folks said shale would not make up the difference in loss of off-shore CAPEX/production, but, in fact, many off-shore projects were in the works and were expected to come on line by 2020. So, Russia and Saudi Arabia are facing a double whammy by this time next year: the Permian is going to reach its stride; and, all those off-shore projects are going to start coming on line.

Look at the Saudi cash reserves as of October, 2018, at this link.

Now, the most recent data, one year; five year (most relevant, and most stunning); and historical "max."

One year:

Five year:

Maximum:

Most interesting for me will be the 74 comments (so far) at the linked WSJ article. Gist of the comments:

• no one is worried
• no one understands why Saudis would do this

Meanwhile,  amount of oil the US imports from Saudi Arabia:

Update On Kashagan -- February 5, 2019

At the bottom of the blog there is a tag for Kashagan.

Today, Eurasianet / oilprice have a very nice update on this oil play. I don't think there was necessarily anything new, but simply an update.

Some data points:

• sulfurous oil: CPC Blend, a Kazakhstan-specific product
• one of several crudes coming from the area
• Tengiz, second-largest oilfield in Kazakhstan, northwester Atyrau region
• Karachaganak, farther north
• Filanovsky field, operated by Russia's LUKoil
• name derives from the pipeline built in 2001; 1,500 km pipeline
• the Caspian Pipeline Consortium:
• Transneft (Russia): 31%
• Kazakhstan state govt: 19%
• rest of consortium (US, Russia, Italy, UK): 50%
• Black Sea terminal: Novorossiysk, southern Russia
• problem: CPC Blen is a light grade of crude with one particularly nasty feature -- contains foul-smelling and corrosive mercaptans
• mercaptans: rotten egg odor; very, very strong, very, very rotten egg
• high levels of hydrogen sulfide
• also, incredibly corrosive to the pipeline that carries it
• partly because of these mercaptans, bringing Kashagan oil to market was catastrophically late
• was supposed to have come on line in 2013
• didn't come on line until 2016
• finally came on line at cost of almost $6 billion
• current capacity: 1.45 billion bopd
• Asia buying more of this oil each year
• may benefit from Iranian sanctions