The Enerplus Tungsten Well In Moccasin Creek -- December 28, 2018

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The Enerplus "heavy metal" pad is tracked here. 

The well:

• 33970, 2,038, Enerplus, Tungsten 147-93-16A-21H, 33 stages; 13.4 million bbls small sand, runs south, Moccasin Creek, t7/18; cum 113K 10/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	28	20804	20759	23754	23926	8070	14704
BAKKEN	9-2018	29	25997	26189	29128	31197	12090	18002
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	47064	47693	50214	54124	4504	49160
BAKKEN	7-2018	11	18750	17534	27852	21563	4504	16599
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	10	0	0	0	0	0

• #33967, Cobalt, also runs south:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	27	24994	25330	20294	20460	19107	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	29	28677	28494	23924	19858	4887	13726
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	49882	50811	42418	33085	2650	30435
BAKKEN	7-2018	12	24156	22630	29666	14960	2650	12310
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	3	0	0	0	0	0

An older permit in the area:

• #20608, PNC

An older well in the same general area as #20608, parallel to #33970, running south, and a bit east of #33970:

• 18790, 1,773, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 16B-21-1H, Moccasin Creek, t10/10; cum 461K 10/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	1728	1757	1438	1382	0	1066
BAKKEN	9-2018	18	1520	1541	1624	1216	0	1068
BAKKEN	8-2018	11	64	0	14175	51	0	51
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	21	1849	2034	1061	1479	0	1012
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	3121	3026	2159	2497	1483	547
BAKKEN	3-2018	13	978	961	731	783	201	479
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	1973	1951	1077	1579	728	484
BAKKEN	1-2018	29	1968	1948	1088	1574	828	393
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1808	1742	888	1447	614	326
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	2261	2240	1091	1809	711	669
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	2250	2303	1336	1800	930	445

The Market, Energy, And Political News, T+53 -- December 28, 2018

Holiday sales: see link --

• last year (2017)
• a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
• this year (2018)
• a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%. 

Holiday travel? records set. Low gasoline prices.

Disconnect: it was my understanding that gold and oil were inflation-hedge investments. Gold is trading at $1,200  -- well off it's recent high of $1,800 and trending lower. And oil? Well, we all know that story. But Fed is increasing rates.

Dems:

• $5 billion: too expensive to complete US border wall
• $10 billion: US sends Mexico to build their southern wall 

US deficit soars.

Bakken economy:

• in North Dakota, only Fargo reported higher taxable sales and purchases than Williston in 3Q18
• Williston reports higher taxable sales and purchases than Bismarck

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US Producers: Delivering a One-Two Punch To OPEC

From Bloomberg. The one-two pucnh?

• one: more oil; way more oil
• two: better oil; way better oil

The U.S. oil industry is delivering a one-two punch to Middle East producers already reeling from a collapse in prices.

A tussle is playing out in the market for so-called light oils, which have a lower sulfur content and are less dense than heavier varieties. When processed, these grades typically yield a higher amount of fuels like gasoline and naphtha. And now, American supplies are weighing on prices for such crudes as well as fuels made from them.

Light oil pumped in U.S. shale fields is increasingly making its way to Asia, undercutting sales by the likes of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, America is exporting a record amount of refined fuel, contributing to a global glut in gasoline and naphtha. That’s hurting some of the biggest members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as they prepare to curb crude output in a bid to stabilize the market.

Middle East producers -- still the dominant suppliers to Asia -- are being forced to tackle American crude competition by lowering their oil pricing to defend their market share. The refiners, meanwhile, are contending with booming U.S. fuel shipments dragging down their returns from making processed products.

************************************

Miscellaneous

Out-produce:

• It's being reported that by 2025 the US will produce more than production from Russia and Saudi Arabia combined.

Canadian oil sands, 2019: down, but not out.

Nothing But Good News -- December 28, 2018

Holiday sales: see link --

• last year (2017)
• a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
• this year (2018)
• a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%. 

Holiday travel? records set. Low gasoline prices.

Disconnect: it was my understanding that gold and oil were inflation-hedge investments. Gold is trading at $1,200  -- well off it's recent high of $1,800 and trending lower. And oil? Well, we all know that story.

API, weekly crude oil inventory -- an unexpected build -- EIA data to report later today (Friday -- two-day delay due to holiday); API data:

• forecast: a draw of 2.9 million bbls
• actual API data: a build of 6.9 million bbls

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, December 28, 2018 --

• 33970, 2,038, Enerplus, Tungsten 147-93-16A-21H, 33 stages; 13.4 million bls small sand, Moccasin Creek, t7/18; cum 113K 10/18;
• 33692, 955, Oasis, Lite Federal 5393 41-11 13BX, 50 stages; 9.8 million lbs, small/medium/large/ceramic, Sanish, t7/18; cum 105K 10/18;
• 32276, drl, Slawson, Gobbler Federal 4-26-35MLH, Big Bend, no production data,

Active rigs:

$45.48	12/28/2018	12/28/2017	12/28/2016	12/28/2015	12/28/2014
Active Rigs	67	50	38	61	173

RBN Energy: part 5, Niobrara production gains spur build-out of NGL pipelines.

Production of natural gas liquids in the Rockies has increased by half since the end of 2012, with the bulk of the output — and those gains — coming from the greater Niobrara play in Colorado and Wyoming. As a result, a number of NGL pipelines out of the Rockies are now running full or close to it, and midstream companies are planning a mix of new pipelines, pipeline expansions and pipeline conversions with the aim of easing takeaway constraints by the latter half of 2019. But, with crude oil prices tanking and crude-focused producers reevaluating their drilling and completion plans, could the Niobrara be headed for an NGL takeaway over-build? In today’s blog, we continue our series with a look at existing and planned NGL pipes out of the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) and Powder River basins.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+52 -- December 27, 2018

Maria Energy, current position, Mediterranean Sea, east of Malta, south of Sardinia; site says destination arrival is scheduled for December 30, 2018, but destination still not confirmed. Tracking here. Original story here. Destination: TBC (to be confirmed).

Bias: sometime ago I suggested to a reader that that stock market volatility is very, very suspicious. I think I may have even mentioned that on the blog. I understand that there can be wild gyrations on the stock market, bu they usually seem to be somewhat explainable. In this case, nothing explains the wild gyrations. But I digress. This is what I find very strange. How do we go from talking about 4% to 6% GDP growth to talk of a recession in less than six months. Perhaps this is why. See this link. 

EPA preparing to shut down; due to "partial government shutdown." Link here. 

Marathon Petroleum donates $35,000 to Mandan, ND, public schools. From The Bismarck Tribune. Donation to support a welding and agriculture mechanics program at Mandan High School.

Disconnect: it was my understanding that gold and oil were inflation-hedge investments. Gold is trading at $1,200  -- well off it's recent high of $1,800 and trending lower. And oil? Well, well all know that story.

LNG import records set by China: link here. Data points:

• cold weather and China's gasification efforts pushed LNG imports to a record high
• NE Asia: China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea
• 20.5 million tons since the start of December
• previous record set last January, 2018: 19.5 millions tons
• China: 6.5 million tons, up 6% from November
• China: November, 2018, vs November, 2017, y-o-y increase of almost 50%
• China: first 11 months of this year: LNG increased by 44% year-over-year
• China: on course to easily beat the full-year LNG import record of 38 million tons (2017)

Record US production: daily US LNG production hits record high of 5.28 Bcf in Christmas week -- from twitter. See this from SeekingAlpha.

• the approaching 2019 will be the most significant year ever for the U.S. liquefied natural gas export business 
• global gas demand will continue to soar, perhaps surpassing oil to become the world's main fuel within 10 years
• Next year really is: "the beginning of the boom."

  The U.S. is poised to triple export capacity to around 10 Bcf/d by the end of next year, and we could be on our way to be the world's largest exporter before 2025. And in a "second wave" of activity, federal regulators will decide the fate of an additional 13 pending projects by the end of 2019.

  For an industry that just started in February 2016, U.S. LNG has quickly been extending to all corners of the globe. Yet, neighbor and friend Mexico has received 20% of all U.S. LNG exports, with South Korea second at 19%. At some point though, Mexico's primary position will slide because the country wants to produce more of its own gas and build more pipelines to gain greater access to cheaper U.S. piped gas. For example, piped U.S. supply to Mexico has averaged $3.18 per MMBtu so far this year, compared to $4.59 for U.S. LNG to Mexico.

Holiday sales: see link above

• last year (2017)
• a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
• this year (2018)
• a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%.

Five New Permits; Two DUCs -- And A Partridge In A Pear Tree

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 34487, SI/NC, XTO, Nelson Federal 21x-5FXG2, Antelope-Sanish, no production data,
• 34152, SI/NC, Hess, SC-TR Slette-LE-153-98-1819H-1, Truax, no production data,  
• 34399, drl, WPX, Lion 18-19HB, Mandaree, no production data.

Active rigs:

$45.66	12/27/2018	12/27/2017	12/27/2016	12/27/2015	12/27/2014
Active Rigs	67	51	41	62	173

Five new permits:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Pembroke (McKenzie)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for a five-well Sondrol/Rauser pad in 29-149-98

And that was all.