Happy Independence Day Week! -- July 2, 2018

Blogging: I'm not sure I'm in the mood to blog much today. Too much other stuff to do. Reading, mostly. Relaxing. I asked my executive producer if I could cut back on blogging today. He must still be reading the memo; I haven't heard back. 

Wow, wow, wow! My biggest disappointment this weekend -- missing the Chicagoland NASCAR race yesterday. Even if you don't like NASCAR, watch the last 3 minutes of this race from yesterday: https://www.foxsports.com/nascar/video/1268093507798.

Best thing all weekend: three hours in the pool on Saturday with Sophia; and then four hours in the pool on Sunday with Sophia. 101 degrees yesterday.

Reminder: if you have time for only article on the Bakken this week, this is the one to read. Re-posting. This is the third time I've linked it. Lots of data hidden in that article. Remember this name Renee Jean. 

Saudi's June production at / near all-time high. Link here. Take it with a grain of salt. We'll know more in six months. Saudi always increases production in the summer due to their own increased domestic demand.

Four supertankers stranded: BP has four supertankers with 8 million bbls of crude oil waiting off the coast of China with no buyers. Previously linked. Better story here. 

Strike: another potential curtailment in crude oil production. Union set to strike North Sea production next month. Total. My hunch: they have a month to sort this out.

Activist agenda? No way, Jose. Now that Trump is going to get his second Supreme Court nomination, US senators don't want an activist judge. LOL. Kagan. Sotomayor. RBG. Give me a break.

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Back to the Bakken

One well came off the confidential list over the weekend:

• 33552, 1,063, Liberty Resources, Albertson 158-93-27-34-2TFH, Enget Lake, on jet pump, 26 stages; 9.1million lbs, all large white, t1/18; cum 93K 5/18;

On Friday: only one well reported out, and that was another DUC. 

Active rigs:

$73.71→	7/2/2018	07/02/2017	07/02/2016	07/02/2015	07/02/2014
Active Rigs	67	58	30	75	190

RBN Energy: Mont Belvieu fractionation capacity and assets: ONEOK and GCF, Part 4.

Happy Birthday To You, Happy Birthday To You, .... July 1, 2018

So I don't forget, an early birthday wish, to Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8 -- celebrating its 57th birthday next  month:

• 2949, 260, Denbury Onshore, Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8, Cedar Creek, unitized, t8/61; cum 474K 4/18; producing for 57 years; 

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Connecting So Many Dots

Devon, from wiki:

Devon is known for its mariners, such as Sir Francis Drake, Sir Humphrey Gilbert, Sir Richard Grenville, Sir Walter Raleigh, and Sir Francis Chichester.

Henry Every, described as the most notorious pirate of the late 17th century, was probably born in the village of Newton Ferrers.

John Oxenham (1536–1580) was a lieutenant of Drake but considered a pirate by the Spanish.

Thomas Morton (1576–1647?) was an avid Elizabethan outdoorsman probably born in Devon who became an attorney for The Council For New England, and built the New England fur-trading-plantation called Ma-Re Mount or Merrymount around a West Country-style Maypole, much to the displeasure of Pilgrim and Puritan colonists. Morton wrote a 1637 book New English Canaan about his experiences, partly in verse, and may have thereby become America's first poet to write in English.

Another famous mariner and Devonian was Robert Falcon Scott, the leader of the unfortunate Terra Nova Expedition to reach the geographical South Pole.

The poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge, the crime writer Agatha Christie and the poet Ted Hughes lived in Devon (his funeral and cremation were held there).

The painter and founder of the Royal Academy, Sir Joshua Reynolds, was born in Devon. Chris Dawson, the billionaire owner of retailer The Range was born in Devon, where his business retains its head office in Plymouth.

I've just finished reading The Island That Disappeared, the biography of Providence, an island off the coast of Nicaragua. From that book I finally understand the evolution of piracy, privateering, the Opium Wars (two, China, 19th century), Hong Kong.

I'm not going to live long enough to read all the books that need to be read. Insert "sad face" emoji here.

EpiPens -- July 1, 2018

I certainly don't get it.

At the sidebar at the right, an app tracks the top ten (10) trending posts.

A couple days ago a post on EpiPens, posted November 2, 2016, rose to the top of the list. It has stayed at the top of the list for several days. I have no idea why.

Whenever I have a question I cannot answer, I a) follow the money; or, b) google it.

So I googled it. I had no idea, but this probably explains it (and it's a pretty good post, in addition).

And, interestingly enough, there's an easy fix for the lack of EpiPens for less than $10.

The DAPL: One Year Later -- The Williston Herald -- July 1, 2018

This is an incredibly good article. I will archive it and come back to it later.

The article is from The Williston Herald.

I have been talking about DUCs for quite some time. There is a data point in this article that supports my thesis that operators have found that DUCs are a very useful way for ND shale operators to manage their assets.

See if you can spot the data point. But don't write me. It's a rhetorical point. One hint: the data point is a temporary phenomenon.

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The Lobster Page

Updates

January 13, 2021: Australia is awash in lobster.

Original Post

This is a pretty cool story. Forget all the stuff about the tariffs. Look at the other stuff regarding lobster.

I started "following" the lobster story about ten years ago when we were spending a lot of time in Boston for several years. The lobster industry had been dying but researchers discovered the cause -- related to "fishing practices," and nothing to do with the environment. Once changes were made, the US lobster industry came back very strongly. Any doubts? Have you had any trouble finding lobster in your local supermarket? Down here in Texas, about as far away from Maine as one can get, there seems to be a glut of lobster in our supermarkets.

Anyway, from The WSJ:

Maine harvests more lobster than any other U.S. state or Canadian province. Last year it landed nearly 111 million pounds—its fourth-largest annual haul—which it sold for $450 million. The lobster industry accounts for 2% of Maine’s economy. 

And China represents a hungry new market. The post-molt lobsters Maine harvests from July through November have softer shells than Canadian lobsters, so they’re lower quality. But they also sell for several dollars less a pound. In the price-sensitive Chinese market, that has given the U.S. industry a competitive advantage over its Canadian counterparts. In 2017 the U.S. exported more than $137 million in lobsters to China, up from $52 million in 2015. 

Rock Lobster, The B-52's
To be fair, others argue that global warming has been the reason for the resurgence in Maine lobster to the detriment of Connecticut and New York. From NOAA.com:

The lobster industry in New York and southern New England has nearly collapsed. From 1996 to 2014, New York’s registered lobster landings dropped 97.7%—from 9.4 million pounds in 1996 (the state’s most profitable year) to 215,980 pounds in 2014 (the latest data available). The story is much the same in Connecticut, where landings fell 96.6% from the most profitable year, and in Rhode Island, which saw a 70.3% drop from its most profitable year.

“Former lobstermen in Connecticut, many of whom were formerly fishermen, had to switch to clam and oyster farming. A few are also farming seaweed as a second crop,” Margaret van Patten, Connecticut Sea Grant communications director, said in an email. “They have to be really flexible in adapting to available species.”

This doesn’t mean the actual lobster population is disappearing. In fact, populations are relatively steady; it’s the location that’s changed. While southern New England lobstermen have found increasingly empty traps since the mid-90s, Maine’s lobster fishery has boomed. From 1994 to 2014, Maine’s landings surged 219% to more than 124 million pounds. 

But it gets back to a question I've asked often, do the benefits outweigh the risks of global warming, assuming it even exists?

The Secret Life of Lobsters: How Fishermen and Scientists Are Unraveling The Mysteries Of Our Favorite Crustacean, Trevor Corson, paperback, 2005

The Last Lobster, Boom or Bust for Maine's Greatest Fishery? Christopher White, 2018 (not recommended unless one wants to read a lot about global warming)

Maine lobstermen have happened upon a bonanza along their rugged, picturesque coast. For the past five years, the lobster population along the coast of Maine has boomed, resulting in a lobster harvest six times the size of the record catch from the 1980s―an event unheard of in fisheries. In a detective story, scientists and fishermen explore various theories for the glut. Leading contenders are a sudden lack of predators and a recent wedge of warming waters, which may disrupt the reproductive cycle, a consequence of climate change.

Christopher White's The Last Lobster follows three lobster captains―Frank, Jason, and Julie (one the few female skippers in Maine)―as they haul and set thousands of traps. Unexpectedly, boom may turn to bust, as the captains must fight a warming ocean, volatile prices, and rough weather to keep their livelihood afloat. The three captains work longer hours, trying to make up in volume what they lack in price. As a result, there are 3 million lobster traps on the bottom of the Gulf of Maine, while Frank, Jason, and others call for a reduction of traps. This may boost prices.

The Maine lobstering towns are among the first American communities to confront global warming, and the survival of the Maine Coast depends upon their efforts.

Just Saying -- July 1, 2018

Updates

July 3, 2018: flashback, March 15, 2012, Obama considered releasing oil from the SPR, and at that time, WTI/Brent prices were a whole lot higher, and threatening to go higher.

July 3, 2018: idle doodling. Back of the envelope.

SPR: pretty steady at around 700 million bbls, link.

SPR emergency releases:

• 2005, Hurricane Katrina: 30 million bbls, sweet/sour half and half
• 1991 Operation Desert Storm: 33.75 million bbls 
• at a million bopd, the SPR could add half what President Trump wants for a year; gives the shale industry and Canada plenty of time to increase pipeline capacity
• the data point I don't know: how much can they actually release from the SPR on a daily basis

US exports: 1.5 million bopd, link.

So, SPR + exports: would easily make up the difference.

Iran: exports about 2.6 million bopd, supposedly

OPEC+: says it will increase production by about 600,000 bopd

Had President Obama not killed the Keystone XL it would now be delivering upwards of 830,000 bopd and it would be the "right" kind of oil for US refineries along the west coast.

US supply of crude oil: about 24 days

Global supply of crude oil: about 65 days

July 2, 2018: from nasdaq.com:

Original Post

Congress lifted the ban on crude oil exports in December, 2015, after a 40-year ban.

If President Trump is so concerned about the price of gasoline, and now "begging" Saudi Arabia to increase production (as most previous US presidents have done in modern history -- some bowing, some not), wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to simply put a temporary ban on US oil exports?

Meanwhile, he could:

• expedite the sale of oil from the SPR
• use the bully pulpit or an executive order to get "Line 3" built and/or Keystone XL built (after all, even Canada's Trudeau found a way to move the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project along)
• encourage Permian build out:
• cut tariffs on steel and pipe imports
• urge Congress to give the oil industry tax incentives to build more pipelines more quickly

Just saying.

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Did New Jersey Avoid A Partial State Shudown?

Yup. Apparently. The state legislature is scheduled to vote on the budget Sunday morning (today).

The fix? They caved. Increased taxes all around, including the "millionaire's tax." One exception, a sales-tax increase.

Under the agreement, New Jersey’s top income-tax rate will increase to 10.75% on filers earning $5 million and above, up from 8.97%. The tax is expected to raise an additional $280 million a year in revenue, Mr. Murphy said.

The governor and lawmakers also agreed to a four-year surcharge on businesses earning more than $1 million. These companies would see their income-tax rate increase to 11.5% from 9% for the next two years, before lowering to 10.5% in the two years after that, Mr. Murphy said. The surcharge is expected to raise $425 million for the fiscal year that begins Sunday.

The deal doesn’t include a sales-tax increase, which Mr. Murphy had said was necessary—along with a millionaire’s tax—to establish “sustainable, recurring” revenue streams for the state budget. On Saturday, Mr. Murphy said the sales-tax increase was no longer needed due to a June decision by the Supreme Court allowing states to tax online sales, along with the recent repatriation of money from overseas.

Add all this to the new federal tax on the wealthy in high cost blue states and New Jersey is getting to be a really, really expensive state in which to live. Look at that business tax. Amazing.

$37.4 billion budget.

A 4.2% increase year-over-year.

0.042 x $37.4 billion = $1.6 billion

Millionaire's tax: $280 million / $1.6 billion = 17.5%

Business tax: $425 million / $1.6 billion = 26.5%

They are counting on the online sales tax to make up the difference? Okay.

114 comments at the article so far. Let's see what the trend is: about what one would expect. Comment with which I agree most: a lot of wealthy NJ residents are going to finally put off relocating to Florida after all these years. I disagree with those who suggest they will move to Texas; not likely.

New Jersey: one multi-billionaire does his part to help New Jersey get back to income equality. He left. May 7, 2016.