And For Those Who Missed It Earlier Today -- My Favorite Video Of The Day -- Don't Mess With Alberta! -- April 10, 2018

Updates

April 11, 2018: oilprice.com calls it a disaster.

Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Expansion is the largest, and one of the very few, pipeline projects that has a chance of reaching completion. Alberta’s oil sands producers have been desperate for new outlets to take their oil out of the country, and the decade-plus Keystone XL saga is the perfect illustration of the industry’s woes.

Keystone XL is still facing an uncertain future, and with several other major oil pipeline projects already shelved, there has been extra emphasis on the successful outcome of the Trans Mountain Expansion. That is exactly why Canada’s federal government, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has gone to bat for the project.

The pipeline is "crucial to the entire Canadian oil sands industry [and oil from WCS is already selling at a $30-discount to WTI]-

And,

• Kinder Morgan just said it was suspending all work on the pipeline; and, 
• Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau just left for a trip to Peru [I have no idea why]

Yeah, it's a disaster.

Original Post 

Notley to Horgan: read my lips!

Alberta calls out BC after pipeline expansion suspension
Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.

And she has several arrows in her quiver.  Like a wine ban that apparently worked ... except she lifted the ban prematurely.

For those looking for something different than what's coming out of Washington, DC, this is a worthy alternative.

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An Opinion 

- from a reader, from an un-sourced document -

posted: April 11, 2018

Bottom Line: PM Trudeau has a problem.

The news is full of the “Alberta/BC war."

The Vancouver Sun and the local radio station covers the situation inside and out.

The Prime Minister declared,  “the pipeline will go through” and then he left on a trip to Peru.

[A] trial was held in Vancouver for four people who ignored the court order to not go near the Kinder Morgan site.

One of the people is an NDP MP.

Remember that the election was so close that the NDP had to get three Green Party members to join them in order to form the government.

If they put [this individual] in jail, the NDP government cannot pass any bills because if they introduce one and don’t get a majority vote, the government will fall.

So we’re waiting to see what the sentence will be.

One of the four people was Elizabeth May who is an MP in the federal government Green Party member.

The Liberals have a good majority so nobody cares how long she sits in jail.

The population seems split between those who want the pipeline and those who don’t.

Those who don’t [want the pipeline] have willing protesters and contributors.

Those who do [want the pipeline] are yelling for the federal government to take action. 

• The crude oil coming through the pipeline goes straight into ships headed to Asia, mainly China.
• More pipelines, more crude going to China. 
• It has nothing to do with oil or gas supply to BC.  
• It increases the possibility of tanker accidents and oil spills that affect our beaches and fish and sea life, etc. 
• It will bring profit to Alberta and money from taxes to the federal government.  
• A lot of the people wanting it to go ahead think it will supply a lot of jobs.  Right now nobody needs a job. 
• Everyone is already working because the construction is booming.  
• There are signs on every store door “now hiring."
• The only jobs will be while the pipeline is being built.  
• BC’s major industry is tourism. 
• All those involved in tourism are against the pipelines, fearing oil spills will affect the beaches and sport fishing and whale watching, etc.  
• People inland don’t care unless they are interested in the environment and disapprove of the tar sands and understand the volume of carbon output by an additional 4or 5 tankers a day going out of the harbour. 

I don’t know which side will win.  Obviously Justin Trudeau doesn’t know either.  He’s gone to Peru and hopes it will get solved while he’s away.

EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook Vs Others -- April 10, 2018

The EIA says:

The short-term outlook continues to forecast that Brent crude oil spot prices will average $63 per barrel in both 2018 and 2019, while West Texas Intermediate will remain below $60 per barrel, averaging about $4 per barrel less than Brent in both years. 

Mike Filloon suggests we will see $70 $75/bbl WTI by July 4, 2018. Posted earlier.

If the EIA is correct, Saudi Arabia is in deep, deep trouble. They "used" to need $100-oil to meet national budgetary needs. Then they "settled" for $80-oil but were forced to live with $60-oil. Oilprice.com had a headline suggesting Saudi Arabia was "secretly" targeting $80 oil. I did not read the article. But if the EIA is correct, it's not going to be a pretty picture for the kingdom.

Short Term Energy Outlook -- EIA -- April 10, 2018

Summer Fuels Outlook:

• EIA is forecasting retail prices for regular-grade gasoline to average $2.74 during the summer of 2018, which tops last summer’s average by 32 cents. The forecast attributes this increase, in large part, to higher Brent crude oil prices, which are reaching average spot prices not approached since 2014.
• Increased prices throughout 2018 will likely increase annual U.S. household spending on motor gasoline by about $190, approximately 9% higher when compared with 2017. This increase would mark the second consecutive year that consumers experience higher motor fuel-related expenses, following annual declines from 2014 to 2016.
• Despite higher prices, EIA’s forecast expects gasoline consumption to increase in 2018. Americans are set to consume roughly 9.6 million barrels per day throughout the summer of 2018, which would be an increase of about 20,000 barrels per day from last summer’s record average.
• Consumers could see higher electricity bills this summer because temperatures are forecast to be a bit hotter than last summer. The short-term outlook expects residential electricity bills to average $142 per month, which would be up from last summer’s average by 3.4%. However, forecasts of summer expenditures are highly dependent on weather, which is unpredictable. [Hmmmm ... I did not know that. But we do know the exact temperature the earth will be 100 years from now.]
• The short-term outlook continues to see natural gas gaining in its share of electric power generation. With a warmer summer expected in 2018, EIA expects electric generation from June through August to top last year’s levels by more than 2%. Of total electrical generation over the summer, natural gas will account for 36%, 2% higher than last year, while coal’s share will drop by 2% to 30%.

Oil Markets:

• The short-term outlook continues to forecast that Brent crude oil spot prices will average $63 per barrel in both 2018 and 2019, while West Texas Intermediate will remain below $60 per barrel, averaging about $4 per barrel less than Brent in both years.
• EIA continues to forecast record crude oil production in the United States for both 2018 and 2019, largely as a result of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in tight rock formations, especially in the Permian region. 
• April’s short-term outlook expects U.S. production to average 10.7 million barrels per day in 2018, which would be a new record and represent an increase of nearly 15% from 2017 to 2018.

Natural Gas:

• U.S. dry natural gas production also remains on pace for record levels in both 2018 and 2019, according to the forecast. This year’s production is poised to increase by 7.5 billion cubic feet per day over 2017 levels to an average just above 81 billion cubic feet per day.
• The April short-term outlook maintains the forecast for U.S. natural gas net exports increasing to historic levels in both 2018 and 2019. 
• U.S. natural gas trade was almost balanced between exports and imports in 2017, but, in this forecast, EIA expects that the United States will see net natural gas exports climb above 4 billion cubic feet per day by 2019 as LNG terminals continue to come online. 

Coal:

• EIA’s April short-term outlook forecasts a 5% decline in coal production in 2018, following last year’s production increase. 
• Coal’s reduced share of electricity generation is largely behind the decline, but lower demand for U.S. coal exports is also a contributing factor. 

Renewables:

• EIA continues to forecast that electricity generation from wind will grow in 2018 and 2019. Assuming that precipitation and snowpack levels are consistent with forecasts, wind will—for the first time—overtake hydropower generation in 2019. 
• As greater capacity comes online, wind has the potential to become the nation’s largest renewable source.

Back To Man-Camps In Boomtown, USA? -- And East Coast Folks Said The Boom Was Over -- April 10, 2018

This link sent to me by a reader; quite a story.  Completely unexpected. My headline is a bit of hyperbole; the housing shortage this time around is a lot different than the kind of housing shortage Williston had in the early years of the boom. 

From nationalmortgagenews.com: Williston housing shortage could have regional repercussions, by Jessica Holdman, The Bismarck Tribune, April 10, 2018 --

Williston Realtors sold more homes in the first quarter of the year than in any other previously — even outselling 2012 and 2014 boom levels.

Homes that changed hands in the quarter numbered 110 — about 30 a month — said Williston's Development Services Director Mark Schneider.

The North Dakota city is in the midst of a single-family housing shortage that promises only to get worse as oil and gas activity picks up for the season. And while Williston area homebuilders are encouraged by city response to local affordable housing needs, officials are still unsure how incoming workers might be housed through the summer.

Apartments and hotels are at 90% to 95% occupancy already, Schneider said. Williston Area Builders Association President Mike Dolbec, of Windsong Custom Homes, expects those units will be full within a couple months.

Twenty-five single-family homes are listed for sale in the $250,000 to $330,000 range and 24 in the $330,000 to $400,000 range, according to the Multiple Listing Service.
It takes three to four months to build a new home but the current inventory could be gone in two months.

A "task force" has formed to look for solutions. More from the article:

He said this is particularly important with high lot prices — about $65,000 on average in the city and about $70,000 for larger county lots — and higher costs for materials, such as the 40 percent increase for lumber over the past year.

North Dakota Job Service's Williston office has 2,000 job openings advertised. Each week of this school year, the Williston School District saw, on average, 19 new students. And a 2016 North Dakota State University study predicts 60 percent population growth in Williams County by 2029.

That's about 1,600 new people per year, meaning more than 500 homes needed annually if the prediction holds, according to Schneider. The city has 732 buildable lots, complete with sewer and water available, but that won't hold them through even next building season.

Of the homes in the $250,000 to $330,000 range, a price range Gorder said is most attainable for the majority of the young families who are looking, 15 are more than 50 years old and four have been on the market more than 50 days. Only eight are less than 50 years old. In the $330,000 to $400,000 range, six are older than 50 years, one has been on the market more than 100 days, six are still being constructed and 11 are less than 50 years old.

The End of the Line, The Traveling Wilburys

Nothing About The Bakken -- Just Having Fun -- April 10, 2018

EPS, history, Yahoo!Finance:

Tesla: debt, CNN. 

Tesla: then and now, Goldman Sachs estimates --

• Tesla: 170 million outstanding shares
• a loss of $7.65 / share = 1,300 million or $1.3 billion
• that's for the year
• we'll get the first quarter's results next week

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Global warming: it took President Trump about a year to turn things around --