Random Update Of A Re-Fracked Older MRO Well In The Sanish Oil Field -- March 12, 2018; Another Wrinkle In The Bakken

MRO appears to continue it's aggressive re-fracking program.

Back on January 17, 2018, this DUC (#33290) was reported as completed:

• 33290, 4,204, MRO, Lena USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t12/17; cum -- (#19144)

At the time I noted #19144 was in the immediate area and was curious what its production profile would look like once it was brought back on line. The well:

• 19144, 952, MRO, TAT USA 34-22H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-03182, t3/11; cum 364K 1/18;

Here is the production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	22	17936	17796	14782	29794	9197	18607
SANISH	12-2017	8	8163	8540	0	10702	698	9119
SANISH	11-2017	2	1407	931	0	1111	0	948
SANISH	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2017	3	120	225	51	194	8	136
SANISH	6-2017	30	2411	2485	536	2778	0	1941
SANISH	5-2017	31	2487	2510	520	2887	15	2014

A production jump like that suggests that the well was re-fracked, and checking FracFocus, it turns out that yes, indeed, it was re-fracked in November, 2018.

I assume other operators are doing the same but I haven't found any consistent examples. But it seems to be a "regular occurrence" that when MRO is fracking "new" wells, MRO often re-fracks older wells in the immediate area at the same time.

But look at this. Look how little water and proppant was used to re-frack this well:

• water : 90.6% of total proppant by weight
• water: 1,759,603 gallons
• sand: 8.9% by weight
• a gallon of water weighs 8.345404 million pounds
• 1.76 million gallons of water weighs 14.7 million pounds
• 90.6% of what = 16.2 million lbs
• 16.2 million lbs total proppant (sand+water+all that other stuff)
• 8.9% of 16.2 = 1.44 million lbs of sand 
• my numbers may be off a bit but 1.44 million lbs of sand is an extremely small amount of sand to be using when fracking wells in 2018. 
• it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the point that is being made
• if I have this correct, this is very, very clever -- what MRO is doing; just one more interesting wrinkle in the Bakken

Random Update Of An Oasis Well That Has Just Been Brought Back On-Line -- March 12, 2018

We can close out another well that I've been waiting for -- to see the production data when it came back on line. Back in December, 2017, I put this well on the list of wells to follow up.

• 18579, 2,006, Oasis, Jorgenson Federal 1-30H, Bear Den, t12/10; cum 500K 1/18; December 26, 2017: #18579, Oasis, 500K; off-line as of 8/17; neighboring well, #33547 just fracked on 8/17;

That well (#18579) is now back on line. Note the jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	6134	6181	3882	8686	8292	84
BAKKEN	12-2017	30	6463	6019	5039	6748	6111	337
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	29	0	29
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	134	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	20	1601	1695	381	2802	2490	12
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	2422	2515	702	4002	3653	49
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	2701	2740	789	4543	4200	33
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	2751	2671	567	4417	4082	35
BAKKEN	3-2017	29	2472	2491	800	4040	3736	14

Really? -- March 12, 2018

Updates

March 14, 2018:  Apparently confirmed -- Kudlow will be named Trump's new economic advisor, replacing Gary Cohn. Dow falls 300 points -- said to be concerns over trade wars due to Trump's tariffs.

Original Post

 

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Eight New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; Six DUCs Completed -- March 12, 2018

Active rigs:

$61.34→	3/12/2018	03/12/2017	03/12/2016	03/12/2015	03/12/2014
Active Rigs	60	45	32	111	193

Eight new permits:

• Operators: EOG (5); Statoil (3)
• Fields: Clarks Creek (McKenzie); Todd (Williams)
• Comments: EOG has permits for a 5-well Clarks Creek pad in SESE 7-151-94; Statoil has permits for a 3-well Jarold pad in NENE 25-155-101

Five permits renewed:

• BR (2): a Cleetwood permit and a Rollacleetwood permit, both in McKenzie County
• Enduro (2): an NSCU permit in Bottineau County; and, an LDCMU permit in Renville County
• Whiting: an Armas permit in Mountrail County

One permit canceled: an Oasis Harbour permit in Williams County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31612, 419, BR, He 3-8-20UTFH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
• 33354, 1,416, Whiting, Jackman 44-10-3H, East Fork, t3/18; cum 71K 5/18; (#20748, #20736)
• 33355, 1,135, Whiting, Jackman 44-10-2TFH, East Fork t3/18; cum 53K 5/18;
• 33357, 1,532, Whiting, Jackman 44-10-1TFH, East Fork, t2/18; cum 54K 5/18;
• 33358, 1,910, Whiting, Jackman 44-10-2H, East Fork, t2/18; cum 90K 5/18;
• 33461, 840, Enerplus, Mesa 152-94-16A-21H, Sanish, t3/18; cum 79K 5/18;

Reason #56 Why I Love To Blog -- March 12, 2018

I have said that I doubt we will ever see a Saudi Aramco IPO. I haven't been able to find (m)any folks in the public arena that agree with me. The IPO launch has already been delayed. It turns out there is an "international oil economist" that argues the same -- that we will  never see a Saudi Aramco IP. From a comment to an oilprice.com article today:

Saudi Arabia’s oil price of $70 is only a starting point. They need a minimum price of $70 or even higher for a successful IPO of Saudi Aramco though I have been the only oil expert in the world suggesting for quite a while that Saudi Arabia is going to withdraw the IPO altogether.

There are three obstacles that make a listing on the NYSE unlikely:

• SEC rules and regulations that Saudi Arabia cannot live with
• the kingdom would have "to open their books" to the public, something a super-secret government would never be able to do
• the kingdom won't get the valuation they want (need) -- $2 trillion for 5% of their assets

Dr Salameh also notes that it doesn't matter how "cheaply" Saudi can lift oil out of the ground, their budget requires significantly more than $70/bbl. For Saudi Arabia, the price of oil is an existential issue.

Whether or not the OPEC-Russia production cut deal falls apart this summer is anybody's guess. But Saudi Arabia already made that mistake once -- the $1 trillion mistake -- from which they are years if not decades away from recovering -- see graphic below.

It's hard for me to believe that Saudi will support any action that drives the price of oil toward $40 again.