Active Rigs Steady At 58 As North Dakota Moves Into Autumn -- September 29, 2017

Active rigs:

$51.62→	9/29/2017	09/29/2016	09/29/2015	09/29/2014	09/29/2013
Active Rigs	58	34	69	186	184

RBN Energy: development finally advancing in Argentina's biggest shale play. Bottom line: a long way to go.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

From Boomberg / Moody's Investors Services: for shale drillers and oil sands producers -- consistently above $50 is needed. Data points:

• study consisted of 37 E & P companies in US and Canada
• with a few notable exceptions, few companies with a "healthy leveraged full cycle ration"
• exceptions: Appalachian explorers Antero Resources Corp and Range Resources Corp, as well as Canadian shale gas producer Seven Generations Energy Ltd
• most others had ratios way below a level Moody's considers healthy
• the three best performers focused on liquids-rich gas plays: the Marcellus and the Utica, and the Montney
• cash flow surge in last few years: Antero and Seven Geenrations
• Moody's: producers' leveraged full cycle ration needs to be significantly above 1 for explorers to earn a meaningful return on their investment
• the average for 37 explorers, last year: 0.59
• the ratios of the top three: above 1.5
• Antero's ratio: 2.19 tops the list
• among the lowest ranking were Apache Corp and Devon Energy Corp with ratios below 0.05

Dutch natural gas: from Reuters via Rigzone, data points:

• recent natural gas discovery in Dutch North Sea could be even bigger than originally thought
• now estimated at 2 trillion cubic feet of gas, more than the Netherland's annual gas production

The story only interests me because:

Dutch gas production has been steadily declining, partly due to a lack of new developments and partly to a government-mandated cap on output from the country's largest field at Groningen after it was established that it triggered earth tremors.

Who Wudda Guessed? I Thought Everyone Was Driving EVs -- September 28, 2017

US petroleum demand highest for any August since 2007 -- that would be, like ten years ago. 

From Oil&Gas Journal, data points:

• August, 2017: total US petroleum deliveries up 1.3% from a year ago
• August, 2017: total petroleum demand averaged 20.5 million b/d
• August, 2017: highest August deliveries in 10 years
• compared with July, 2017: decreased 0.6%, month-over-month
• year-to-date: US deliveries moved up 1.3% compared with same period last year
• gasoline demand down 1.5% from August, 2016, at 9.5 million b/d but still the fourth-highest deliveries to date

Much more at the link.

A Good Neighbor -- Great Story -- September 28, 2017

This speaks volumes about Dakota Access LLC and the small-mindedness of some politicians. First the note that was posted earlier:

DAPL-gate: comes to an end. At The Bismarck Tribune, data points:

• no fine
• DAPL does not admit guilt
• DAPL will plant three trees for every alleged tree removed (industry standard is to plant two trees for every alleged tree)
• DAPL developer to provide manual on how to communicate better

Now, this story:

The Governor's office announced they will accept a $15 million donation from Dakota Access LLC. 

The money will go to the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services (DES) to help deal with debt brought on as a result of the Dakota Access Pipeline protests. 

The donation was wired this afternoon to the state-owned Bank of North Dakota and it will be used to pay off loans taken out by DES.

According to a press release sent by the Governor's officer, a bill passed by the state legislature in 2017 included language saying the Governor and DES could "accept reimbursement in the form of land, cash, or other assets from from nonstate sources for state cost incurred relating to unlawful activity associated with the construction” of the Dakota Access Pipeline. 

Another bill passed in 2017, HB 1024, required that any reimbursements received must be used to repay the Bank of North Dakota loans. 

Currently the state has borrowed $43 million from the Bank of North Dakota. $40 million for DES and $3 million for Morton County. 

During a budget interim committee meeting at the State Capitol Thursday, they voted to accept a $10 million grant from the U.S. Department of Justice to reimburse the state for law enforcement support costs. 

More at the link.

Four DUCs Completed; Five New Permits -- September 28, 2017

Active rigs:

$51.60↓	9/28/2017	09/28/2016	09/28/2015	09/28/2014	09/28/2013
Active Rigs	58	32	70	190	184

Five new permits:

• Operators: Hess (3): Petro-Hunt (2)
• Fields: Antelope (McKenzie); Charlson (McKenzie)
• Comments: a lot of action in the Charlson recently

Two permits renewed:

• EOG: two Clearwater permits in Mountrail County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 26922, 2,173, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-5, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum -- ; (21312, 19538)
• 26923, 2,145, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215-6, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum --; (21312, 19538)
• 26924, 2,121, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-7, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum --; (21312, 19538)
• 33046, 433, Veeder 4E MBH-ULW, Blue Butte, t7/17; cum --; (16357)

BBC Remains Conflicted -- The Political Page, Part 2 -- T+251 -- September 28, 2017; China Blinks

The personal attacks on President Trump continue but he's the first president who is finally getting around to doing things that should have been done a long time ago. And he's getting results.

Past presidents were co-conspirators in North Korea's move to ICBM-nuclear weapons. President Trump still has a number of arrows in his quiver before he even has to consider the military option, and already we see significant results.

The BBC is reporting:

China to shut down North Korean companies.

China has told North Korean companies operating in its territory to close down as it implements United Nations sanctions against the reclusive state.

The companies will be shut by early January. Joint Chinese and North Korean ventures will also be forced to close.

China, Pyongyang's only major ally, has already banned textile trade and limited oil exports.

The move is part of an international response to North Korea's sixth and most powerful nuclear test.

We might see little rocket man launch a flurry of ICBMs tomorrow and he may test an H-bomb over the Pacific Ocean this weekend, but the tea leaves certainly suggest little rocket man finds himself in a box. Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama -- never did a thing to stop North Korea. Amazing what a little tough talk can do.

In that short BBC article linked above, the writer did not have enough space to put the word "Trump" into the story, simply calling it an "international response."

Obviously the BBC is very conflicted over all of this. It doesn't fit the narrative.

If North Korea launches a nuclear-tipped ICBM targeting Guam, would one rather have Dirty Harry in charge, or Barney Fife?

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NFL Blinks

The tea leaves suggest that the NFL is going to stand during the National Anthem. The controversy will continue but there's no question the NFL knows their fans really are patriots.

Later: I assume the game is over. I don't recall who is playing; I don't even care who won. I'm most interested in who stood / who didn't. That's what the NFL is doing to its fans: more interested in the pre-game show and no longer caring about the game itself.

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Sanctuary Cities

And this is why I always thought sanctuary cities made so much sense, like shooting fish in a barrel, as they say.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested 101 people for immigration violations in Los Angeles as part of a broader operation targeting sanctuary cities, netting nearly 500 arrests across the U.S.

According to ICE, "Operation Safe City" focused on cities and regions where "ICE deportation officers are denied access to jails and prisons to interview suspected immigration violators or jurisdictions where ICE detainers are not honored."

A total of 498 people from 42 counties and multiple cities were arrested as part of the operation, an ICE press release stated. The operation came to a conclusion on Wednesday.

Of these individuals, 101 were from Los Angles; 28 were from Baltimore; 30 were from Cook County, Illinois; 63 were from Denver; 45 were from New York; 107 were from Philadelphia; 33 were from Portland, Oregon; 27 were from Santa Clara County, California; 14 were from Washington, D.C.; and 50 were from Massachusetts.

Look how much money the federal government saves not having to plan sweeps across the country. They can simply target sanctuary cities. Reminds me of the answer Willie Sutton gave when he was asked why he robbed banks -- "because that's where the money is."