Spooky Scary -- Shale LNG -- US, China -- September 11, 2017 -- Why Coal Will Rise Again

Spooky, scary:

• China is using LNG at "an alarming rate"
• Current LNG glut could turn into a deficit twice the output of leading producer Qater
• LNG capacity will start declining in some areas only four years from now

From Bloomberg:

The global glut plaguing liquefied natural gas markets may start to dwindle in five years, threatening to spur a deficit equivalent to twice the output of leading producer Qatar.

New projects are needed to fill the shortfall, with demand for the super-chilled fuel forecast to double in the 20 years to 2035.

Buyers in Asia are boosting use of the fuel at a “staggering” pace, Jack Fusco, chief executive officer of U.S. exporter Cheniere Energy Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

While plants currently in operation or being built will add to global oversupply, aging facilities and shrinking resources in some areas mean capacity will start declining after 2021.

That’s a boon for companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to Tellurian Inc. and Novatek PJSC looking to invest in new production in the next decade to meet demand.

“The continuous growth of the LNG market will leave a large margin for the implementation of new projects,” Cedigaz said in the report emailed Thursday.

The U.S. shale boom will make the country the biggest LNG producer by the end of the period, according to the Cedigaz report. Output will end in some nations such as Trinidad and Tobago.

“I foresee that the LNG market needs at least a hundred million tons of new liquefaction capacity above what’s under construction today in order to meet demand needs of the market by 2025,” Meg Gentle, chief executive officer at Tellurian, said by phone Thursday. “Demand is growing more than people expected.”

And it's not going to be just China.

There may be a reason China is moving to EVs -- energy requirements are not going to be met by oil or natural gas.

Back to coal. And sooner than we thought.

The Market And APPL -- September 11, 2017

The S&P 500 hit an all-time record today. All indices were up 1% today. September is a bad month for investors, they say.

Futures mean squat, but right now:

The Dow was up 250 points today, and right now is holding onto those gains, but the interesting thing is the further jump in S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

I assume much of the Nasdaq is being led by tech with Apple announcing new iPhone tomorrow. This is the interesting thing about the iPhone. No analyst or "talking head" seems to be concerned with the $1,000 price tag. This price point has been talked about for such a long time, a $1,000 price point tomorrow won't be a shock. Folks are ready for it.

It will be interesting how Tim Cook announces a $1,000+ iPhone -- lots of comparisons to mobile computers, no doubt. If the price comes in under $1,000 watch APPL shares surge. Of course, the former is not going to happen.

But folks are already talking making these comments:

• the iPhone X will be high-end, marketed to high-end Apple buyers; a premium iPhone; Apple is surrounded by millionaires out in Silicon Valley and knows there is a lot of money out there
• the iPhone X at $1,000+ becomes an "item" for the glitterati
• for the rest of us, an $800 iPhone 8, 8-Plus will look like a bargain
• but then this: for the rest of us, if $800 looks like a bargain, another $200 isn't all that much
• and, besides, the phone companies will tether the $1,000 to a three-year plan making the phone even "more" affordable

My Samsung clam shell that I got about ten years ago seems to be on its last legs; new battery but the display seems to "dying." But no, no Apple iPhone for me; another clam shell if they are even available any more.

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 Tesla Nightmare

Mercedes: announces it will offer "electric versions" of all its cars by 2022. 

VW: announces $84 billion in EV investment.

Absolutely fascinating.

Peak oil? What peak oil.

The real winner? Natural gas in the US; coal in most of the rest of the world. GE and any other company that makes transformers.

Random Look-Back At Hess BB-Burk, #17060 -- September 11, 2017

The graphic:

The production profile of #17060 in late 2013, late 2014:

• 17060, 528, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-1, Blue Buttes, t7/08; cum 285K 7/17;

BAKKEN	3-2014	31	3522	3512	188	6494	1507	4987
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	3437	3463	218	5372	0	5372
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	4319	4342	595	6970	0	6970
BAKKEN	12-2013	29	4307	4210	641	6492	0	6492
BAKKEN	11-2013	15	2667	2716	317	3176	2788	388
BAKKEN	10-2013	18	4787	4770	253	7119	7119	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	19	3706	3555	29	4376	4376	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	0	0	21	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	9	463	482	19	733	733	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	15	1077	1076	23	1436	1436	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	1551	1575	130	2573	2573

The dreaded Bakken decline stopped in its tracks and the increased production persisted for several months afterwards.

Similar "wells of interest" are tracked here. 

Whiting Reports A Nice Well; Hess With Five New Permits -- September 11, 2017

Active rigs:

$48.12↑	9/11/2017	09/11/2016	09/11/2015	09/11/2014	09/11/2013
Active Rigs	56	37	69	198	180

Five new permits:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
• Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well Burk pad in Blue Buttes oil field, SESE-18-151-95; see below

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend and today:

• 32374, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-34D-27-3H, Little Knife, no production data,
• 32773, 1,998, Whiting, State 34-36-1TFH, Tyrone, Three Forks, 46 stages; 7.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 88K 7/17;

Finally, it's official:

• 27235, dry, Strata-X, Rohweder 1-11; Emmons County

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 32773, 1,998, Whiting, State 34-36-1TFH, Tyrone, Three Forks, 46 stages; 7.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 88K 7/17;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	21046	21063	42912	21830	18761	2976
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	12069	12303	27045	10622	8877	1655
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	17426	17192	40271	14342	14199	50
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	19429	19831	47857	16712	16141	482
BAKKEN	3-2017	21	17956	17317	60333	16598	15031	1506

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Nothing About The Bakken -- Hurricanes and Investigations -- September 11, 2017

From Wiki:

Tropical Storm Doria was the costliest tropical cyclone in the 1971 Atlantic hurricane season.

The fifth tropical storm of the season, Doria developed from a tropical wave on August 20 to the east of the Lesser Antilles, and after five days without development it attained tropical storm status to the east of Florida. Doria turned to the north, and reached peak winds of 65 mph as it was making landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina. It turned to the northeast, and moved through the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a tropical storm before becoming an extratropical storm over Maine on August 29.

In North Carolina, Doria produced moderate rainfall, resulting in localized flooding and damage. The storm spawned a tornado near Norfolk, Virginia, damaging twelve houses and downing hundreds of trees.

Tropical Storm Doria dropped heavy precipitation in New Jersey, peaking at 10.29 inches in Little Falls. The rainfall led to record-breaking river levels and flooding in several houses, resulting in damage to dozens of houses across the state. Moderate damage and rainfall continued along its path into New England and southeastern Canada. In all, Tropical Storm Doria caused seven deaths and $147.6 million (1971 USD, $873 million 2017 USD).

It's a long, long story and I won't go into now but I came close to sustaining a financial disaster (but I didn't) due to tropical storm Doria. I was working in New Jersey when the storm hit. I say all that because the European model suggests Hurricane Jose is on the same trajectory.

By the way, I mentioned Tropical Storm Doria once before on the blog.

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Why Mueller Won't Be A Martyr

As long as I'm reminiscing, I need to link this article on the Mueller investigation. Something said earlier today on talk radio reminded me of the story. I don't recall if I have linked this story before.

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Hold On: US Supreme Court On Trump's Travel Ban 

From Bloomberg:

A U.S. Supreme Court justice on Monday issued a short-term order restoring President Donald Trump’s ban on thousands of refugees seeking entry to the country.

The order issued by Justice Anthony Kennedy puts a lower court ruling on hold until the high court decides whether to grant the administration’s request for a longer-term order. Kennedy ordered those opposing the administration to file court papers by noon Tuesday.

A federal appeals court ruled last week that the administration must temporarily admit refugees if a resettlement agency had promised that it would provide basic services for them. That decision was set to take effect Tuesday, and as many as 24,000 refugees have received such assurances, the administration said in papers filed with the high court.

My wife tells me this did not make the evening news and yet the story broke earlier this afternoon. Speaks volumes about "fair and balanced."