EU Spokesperson Caught In Bold-Faced (Bald-Faced) Lie? -- July 29, 2017

Updates

July 30, 2017: I was somewhat concerned that I was incorrect in the original post; it's hard to believe that a EU spokesperson would be so cavalier with facts when they are so easily checked these days. But see first comment; much appreciated. The reader also provides this link:

https://s1.postimg.org/faz3droun/Captura_de_pantalla_1326.png

It's important to note that the graph at the link is the EU total (all 28 countries which would include Great Britain; Great Britain skews the data to some extent because it is unique in trying to displace coal with natural gas where the EU in general has not made the same commitment (at leas to the same extent).

Original Post
 

Where is Snopes when we need the fact-checking service? In this Reuters article:

Nicole Bockstaller, a spokeswoman at the EU Commission's Energy and Climate Action department, said that the EU's coal imports have generally been on a downward trend since 2006, albeit with seasonable variations like high demand during cold snaps in the winter.  

The rest of the article did not seem to support that statement, so where was the fact-checking?

Here is the fact-check over at TorvaldKlaveness (for some reason, the writer only includes the first eight months of each year, through August):

Not only is the trend clearly upward since 2006, but look at this:

Total imports into the EU (excluding the U.K.) totaled 188Mt in 2015, the second highest import on record, only beaten by the 196Mt imported in 2008. However, imports in the first 8 months of 2016 have started on a much weaker note, down about 10% from the same period in 2015.

"... down about 10% from 2015..." LOL. Comparing 2016 with a record-setting year. Why didn't the writer compared 2016 to 2004? Or to 2006? Or to 1010?

I guess there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

The writer excluded the UK in the graph perhaps because that country was an outlier -- not because coal was displaced by wind/solar, but rather because coal was displaced by natural gas (see the linked article at Torvald Klaveness).

Based on the data coming in for 2017, it appears that 2016 was an outlier for the EU also; the amount of coal being imported by Europe has already surged the first six months of this year.

But as a reader pointed out, the EU does not count burning wood as contributing to CO2 emissions because wood, they suggest, is a renewable resource.

And some folks think President Trump is mentally challenged. 

From Reuters, Did Anyone See This Coming? Making America Great Again -- July 29, 2017

This article has so many story lines. I'm glad that Reuters was able to pick up on perhaps the most important one:

U.S. coal exports have jumped more than 60 percent this year due to soaring demand from Europe and Asia, according to a Reuters review of government data, allowing President Donald Trump's administration to claim that efforts to revive the battered industry are working.

The increased shipments came as the European Union and other U.S. allies heaped criticism on the Trump administration for its rejection of the Paris Climate Accord, a deal agreed by nearly 200 countries to cut carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels like coal.

The previously unpublished figures provided to Reuters by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed exports of the fuel from January through May totaled 36.79 million tons, up 60.3 percent from 22.94 million tons in the same period in 2016. While reflecting a bounce from 2016, the shipments remained well-below volumes recorded in equivalent periods the previous five years. 

Wow, talk about EU hypocrisy. 

Additional data points:

• United Kingdom (aka Great Britain, includes England): 175% increase in US coal shipments 
• France: doubled its US coal shipments

France? What happened: the country had suffered a series of nuclear power plant outages that required it and regional neighbors to rely more heavily on coal.

Overall exports from US:

• to Europe: 16 million tons in first five months of 2017 vs 10.5 million in same period last year (the increase in the amount imported by Germany is striking; other unlinked sources)
• to Asia: 12.3 million tons vs 6.2 million tons in y-o-y comparison

The article includes this:

Trump had campaigned on a promise to "cancel" the Paris deal and sweep away Obama-era environmental regulations to help coal miners, whose output last year sank to the lowest level since 1978. The industry has been battered for years by surging supplies of cheaper natural gas, brought on by better drilling technologies, and increased use of natural gas to fuel power plants.

His administration has since sought to kill scores of pending regulations he said threatened industries like coal mining, and reversed a ban on new coal leasing on federal lands.

President Trump has been in office barely six months, T+190 to be exact (six months plus 10 days).

Again, this is a Reuters article; not a press release from the White House.

The Pronghorn Member, Bakken Formation (MIssissippian-Devonian)

In the geology portion of file reports, the geologist will occasionally mention the various lithofacies of the Pronghorn Member of the Bakken Formation. This is a bit of background. A huge "thank you" to Don for sending me the link.

The Pronghorn, from GEO News, July 20, 2017. Ichnology Applied to the Pronghorn Member, Bakken Formation (Mississippian-Devonian). This link will open a PDF on your desktop: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/documents/newsletter/2017Summer/Ichnology%20Applied%20to%20the%20Pronghorn%20Member%20Bakken%20Formation.pdf

I did not note the ichnology; if interested, go to the source, linked above.

History:

• formally proposed by Julie A LeFever and others in 2011
• defined as the strata underlying the Lower Member and overlying the Three Forks Formation
• had previously been included in the Three Forks and referred to as the "Sanish sand"
• significant unconformity at the top of the Three Forks section
• lithologies within the Pronghorn section are mappable and consistent with those observed within the Middle Member

Location:

• located throughout the Williston Basin
• divides easily into proximal and distal bed
• proximal bed primarily in the southwestern portion of the basin
• distal portion is more centrally located
• proximal beds are associated with production

The geology:

• Three Forks Formation
• an alternating sequence of apple green and tan dolomudstones and claystones
• Pronghorn Member
• Bakken Formation
• can be divided into five (5) lithofacies, in ascending order from A-E
• focus of this paper: middle section B of this member

A. Basal Sandstone

• lowermost sandstone lithofacies
• fine- to very fine-grained quartz sandstone
• difficult to identify with certainty on wireline logs

B. Dolomitic Mudstones with Storm Beds

• upper portion of the interval: dolomitic mudstone with thicker storm beds of very fine- to fine-grained quartz
• the upper portion of the interval becomes significant when examining production
• although the porosities are similar throughout the interval, the upper portion of the lithofacies appears to have better permeability than the underlying portion

C. Lime Mudstone

• thin, medium brown-grey mudstone to siltstone

D. Limestone

• a medium grey, nodular-bedded limestone
• represents an open marine environment
• again, difficult to identify on wireline logs

E. Silt

• the uppermost lithofacies has been previously referred to as the "Bakken silt" and is possibly the distal equivalent to the proximal lithofacies -- the sandstone, storm beds, lime mudstone, and limestone
• organic values (TOCs) are significantly less than the overlying Lower Member of the Bakken formation

Lower Member of the Bakken

• a dark brown to black organic-rich shale
• the Lower Member was deposited in a restricted marine setting allowing for the stratification of the water column and the development of anoxic bottom waters

Relationship of Facies to Production

• minor changes in the depositional environment of the "B" beds appear to have an effect on production; although porosity over the section is consistent, the permeability decreases from the upper section to the lower section
• the silt interval of the Pronghorn should negatively affect production
• however, the silt portion performs better as a reservoir because of the higher percentage of oil saturation to total fluids and therefore produces less water

The Political Page, T+190 -- July 29, 2017

Bullet train, California: California Supreme Court rules for opponents -- The Washington Post. The "bullet train" must comply with California's strict environmental regulations. Ruling 6 -1. Huge setback for Jerry Brown, et al. The ruling came in a lawsuit involving plans to introduce freight trains on a Northern California rail line but the ruling will most assuredly affect the "bullet train." Jerry Brown had insisted that the "bullet train" would not have to comply with the state's strict environmental laws but could follow the federal government's less strict rules. And so it goes. The "bullet train" saga is tracked here.

Range battle:

• Chevrolet Bolt: 238 miles
• Tesla Model 3: first released version, 220 miles; more expensive version, 310 miles; 20 - 30 minutes to recharge even with fast chargers;
• Toyota: announces, expects to be selling by 2022; supposedly would be able to re-charge in minutes; switch in strategy? had touted hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles and plug-in hybrids; now wants to add EVs to lineup; will begin mass-producing EVs in China as early as 2019; range not mentioned in short article

McDonald's
Warren Buffet visits the restaurant every day for breakfast and never spends more than $3.17. From a documentary at the link (date unknown): "Every morning he tells his wife: "Either $2.61, $2.95, or $3.17." And she puts that amount in "the little cup" next to Buffett in his car." Most likely a 1973 AMC Gremlin.  I am told that his first wife is now deceased; remarried. Buffett's age: 86. McDonald's for breakfast; Coke for lunch and dinner; Dairy Queen for dessert. Hopefully he stays away from white bread and processed cheese which some say are bad for one's health. As for McDonald's and me: I never spend more than $2.17 for breakfast: coffee and one hash brown. I never ask for the senior discount on coffee but occasionally a McDonald's employee remembers, bringing the $1.00 cup of coffee down to 50 cents.

Geico Rock Award
Another 2017 nominee. This time Nicholas Casey over at The New York Times, with this headline: As Venezuela prepares to vote, some fear an end to democracy. If I did the math correctly, a yearly subscription for print and electronic New York Times is $325 (without discounts; first year half-price deals) for these kinds of stories.

******************************

Cleaning The Roomba

Week 30: July 23, 2017 -- July 29, 2017

Wow, what a week.

My favorite post this week had nothing to do with the Bakken: "Meeting of the Waters."

US gasoline demand is starting to hit new records.

Nothing to do with the oil industry but perhaps the news that pleased me the most: "Snopes on the ropes."

Operations
Active rigs up to 61, eleven more than many thought likely at this point
Random look at an old Gudmunson well
42 Emerald Oil wells transferred to Petro-Hunt
Random look at a re-frack
Update on BR's Red Rivers wells in Corral Creek
Random look at Statoil's Roscoe well
Jump in production, BR's CCU Boxcar well

Fracking
CalFrac's earnings conference call
EOG's fracking solutions

Pipeline
Cenex, from Sidney, MT, to Minot, ND

Natural gas
Putting a new natural gas processing plant into perspective -- it will be the largest in ND
Natural gas from the Bakken, hitting all-time records 

Bakken 101
Tyler and Pronghorn

Bakken 2.0
Jump in production, a Koala well
Rising EURs

Bakken economy
Legacy Fund update 

Miscellaneous
Connecting the Bakken with nation's largest port and export to Asia