Leonard Cohen: Dead At 82 -- November 10, 2016

Pretty sad.

< Tower of Love, Leonard Cohen

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The Political Page

The 2016 presidential election will be studied ad nauseum.

This is something I've heard no one mention. Fatigue. Hillary's.

The polls suggested this was going to be an incredibly close race. Both candidates had already pre-positioned lawyers in every swing state / every battleground state -- that's how tight they thought this race was going to be.

The day before the election, Monday, November 7, 2016: Trump visited ten swing states / battleground states.

Hillary? Visited one. She had one scheduled public event Monday, the day before the election. The one public appearance the day before the election was a "concert."

Again, the reporters and journalists are looking at this with their eyes wide shut. They look for every reason to explain why they lost. Some races were so tight, one wonders if one last visit, the day before the election would have made a difference.

There's only two reasons why she did not visit more than one state the day before the election: fatigue or a medical condition, or a combination of both.

She was no doubt resting on Monday to prepare for whatever Tuesday might bring.

Ten states in one day for a 70-year-old man. One concert for his opponent. On the last day before a very tightly competitive race.

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POFTA -- POOF

Both Canada and Mexico, apparently, have said they are willing to "re-negotiate" NAFTA.

This is two days after Trump was elected. There are still about 70 days before he is sworn in.

When Canada and Mexico are both willing to "re-negotiate" NAFTA it speaks volumes. It tells me the playing field is very, very uneven, and the United States is getting the worst part of the bargain.

I guess the "Pacific Ocean Free Trade Act" (POFTA) is dead. DOA. EIEIO.

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The NFL Page

I thought the NFL ratings story was a bit overblown, maybe some hype. I thought that total number of eyeballs watching NFL had probably increased despite the lower ratings on Sunday, Monday, and Thursday. But now I'm not so sure.

The New York Times has this headline: "As Ratings Plummet, NFL Considers Reducing Ads and Length of Games."

As long as they're doing that, they might as well quietly ask the players to act like they respect the USA. The players don't have to really like the US, but if they would just pretend for 2 minutes, that might help. That issue was not mentioned in the article -- for the NY Times it would not be something they would want to bring up.

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Closing Time

Closing Time, Leonard Cohen

Three New Permits -- November 10, 2016

Active rigs:

	11/10/2016	11/10/2015	11/10/2014	11/10/2013	11/10/2012
Active Rigs	38	66	192	182	191

No wells coming off the confidential list Friday.

Three new permits:

• Operators: BR (2), Sedalia Energy
  Fields: Croff (McKenzie), Pratt (McHenry)
  Comments:

Ten permits renewed:

• Murex (4): four Skari permits (Iner, Laura, Vernon, and Evar P.) in McKenzie County
• Whiting (2): two Faiman permits in Dunn County
• HRC (2): two Fort Berthold permits in McKenzie County
• Denbury (2): two CHSU permits in Bowman County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30301, 810, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-9, Robinson Lake, t11/16;  no production data,
• 30315, 791, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-10, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum -- 
• 32601, 834, Hess, EN-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-11, Westberg, t10/16, no production data,
• 32602, 947, Hess, EN-Rolfsrud-152-96-1720H-10, Westberg, t10/16, cum --

First Time Unemployment Claims Plummet By 11,000; Well More Than Forecast -- November 10, 2016

From Business Insider:

• initial jobless claims fell more than expected
• dropped to 254,000
• the forecast: to 260,000
• previous week: 265,000
• a drop of 11,000
• four-week moving average: 259,750, an uptick of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average

Also, here.

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GDP Now

4Q16: 3.1

From Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.1 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 4.

The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched up from 0.46 percentage points to 0.50 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

How Much Effect Did Hillary's Comments To Ban Fracking Have On The National Outcome -- It Turns Out It Was Huge -- November 10, 2016

I've gone over the math on this post over and over and I think I'm correct. Please, if I'm not, let me know, so I can correct it. 

If you do nothing else tonight, look at the comment at this post:

http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/11/reply-to-reader-regarding-election.html.

I brought the comment up to the top of that post to make it easier to read and to make it "browser-searchable."

A huge thank-you to the reader on the East Coast who sent me the data. It is a real eye-opener.

After reading that note, I am absolutely convinced that Hillary's comments in Detroit about banning fracking may have been the difference in winning  / losing the election. If the Pennsylvania data holds for Ohio that amounts to 38 electoral votes (18 for OH; 20 for PA) that might have been lost due to Hillary's comments on fracking.

Right now, over at CNN:

• Trump: 290 + Michigan (16) = 306
• Hillary: 232

Back out those 38 electoral votes from Trump and give them to Hillary and note what happens. At the CNN link it appears that Michigan is still not being officially called by some. But give those 16 electoral votes to Trump:

• Trump 306 - 38 = 268
• Hillary: 232 +38 = 270

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and electoral vote counting is not as simple as it seems with Maine and Nebraska having "unique" way of awarding electoral votes. But I've done the math several times and that's what I get. If Trump takes Michigan (and it appears he will) but lost Pennsylvania and Ohio, it looks like he would have come up two electoral votes from winning.

Please let me know if I've done the math wrong. If accurate, this is bigger than I realized.

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Note:

I am always humbled when a reader sends me such great information (see linked post above). It obviously took a fair amount of time to figure this out and there was no reason he/she had to send the data. So, I am always humbled.

More so, because I realize that a lot of what I post on the blog is off-subject, and much of my stuff is of little interest to readers who are truly serious about the oil and gas industry, and they continue to come to the site. I am often embarrassed when I get these great notes from readers, wondering what they must think of my off-subject stuff, but hopefully I identify off-subject stuff well enough that folks can ignore it if they want.

I cannot discontinue blogging off-subject stuff. For me, simply posting numbers and data and information about the Bakken would grow tedious, and so much of my "other" stuff helps put the Bakken in perspective.

But again, when I get these notes, and links from so many readers, it tends to keep me on track.

Another Wind Farm Proposed For Williams County -- November 10, 2016

I can't remember if I posted this earlier but when I blogged about the two wind farms that were going up this summer in western North Dakota, I had also been told there would be two more wind farms announced.

Here's one of the two. Data links from The Tioga Tribune:

• same developer as the Lindahl Wind Farm, currently under construction
• Trade Wind Energy, a Kansas-based company; currently has about 20 projects under development throughout the US
• planned for South Meadow township, just west of the Lindahl Wind Farm
• northern border: a few miles south of Wildrose; southeast corner of the new farm will stretch down to the same southern borders of the Lindahl Wind Farm

Another story posted by The Williston Herald, November 21, 2016. 

• initial step is to place six (6) meteorological towers to collect wind data
• it will take up to a year to collect that information