Thursday, September 8, 2016

Nothing About The Bakken -- Heading To Bed -- See Y'all In The A.M. -- September 8, 2016

From Humans in New York:
“The military is mostly filled with people who genuinely desire to do the right thing.
More Marines receive the Medal of Honor for jumping on grenades than any other action.
It’s a culture where officers eat last and everyone shares their water.
These people grew up as boy scouts and girl scouts. The whole reason they volunteered was because they wanted to do the right thing. But the right thing is never clear in war.
If you shoot too early, an innocent person gets killed. If you shoot too late, you lose a buddy. So a lot of our injuries are moral ones. Most of us come home feeling like we did something wrong. Or we didn’t give enough. Or that our friends gave too much.
My best friend in the Marines was a guy named Ronnie Winchester. He was the nicest guy you can imagine. My 22nd birthday was during our officer training course. None of us had slept. We were all starving. We were only getting one ration per day. But Ronnie wanted to give me a memorable birthday. So he put a candle in his brownie and gave it to me. That’s how nice of a guy he was.
Ronnie ended up getting killed in Iraq. And if a guy like Ronnie got killed, you can’t help but wonder why you deserve to be alive. Ronnie was 25 years old when he died. He is always going to be 25 years old. I have a wife and kids now. I get to grow old. But Ronnie Winchester is always going to be 25.” 
I think some folks forget that everyone serving in uniform in Afghanistan is a volunteer. A volunteer. 

And then there's Kaepernick et al.

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From Shrew To You
A Note For The Granddaughters
Scientific American
June, 2016
pages 32 -33

From wiki, we begin:
The therapsids included the cynodonts, the group that gave rise to mammals in the Late Triassic around 225 million years ago.
Of the non-mammalian therapsids, only cynodonts and dicynodonts survived the Triassic–Jurassic extinction event.
The last of the non-mammalian therapsids, the tritylodontid cynodonts, became extinct in the Early Cretaceous, approximately 100 million years ago.  
Late Triassic

Unknown cynodont to mammaliaforms. Cynodonts were not mammals.

The unknown ancestor gave rise to:
  • Morganucodonts -- died out
  • Another unknown ancestor that split into Kuehneotheriids (died out) and another unknown ancestor that gave rise to:
Hamamiyidans (died out) and another unknown ancestor that split into an unknown ancestor that later gave rise to Castoracuda, Agilodocodon, and Docofossor, which all died out; and, the unknown first mammal.

The unknown first mammal split into two groups: monotremes which still exist today, and a second group with an unknown ancestor that split into two groups, Fruitafossor, which died out early, and another unknown ancestor that split into two groups with many splittings to include:
  • Volaticotherium: died out early
  • Repenomamus: died out 
  • Gondwanatherians: died out
  • Multitubercltates: died out
  • Symmetrodonts: died out
  • and, the Therians, arising in mid-Jurassic - Late Jurassic.
The Therians immediately broke into two groups in early Late Jurassic: Metatherians and Eutherians.

The Metatherians ultimately gave rise to marsupials which still exist; and, Placentals (via Torrejoina). 

Now, a bit of narrative from the article.

The Late Triassic period was a heady time in evolution.

A few tens of millions of years earlier, nearly all life was extinguished in a volcano-triggered mass extinction that marked the end of the Permian period and ushered in the Triassic period. After most of the giant amphibians and reptiles that ruled the Permian died out, manyof today's ost important animal groups rose up in the postapocalyptic vacuum. Turtles, lizards, frogs, crocodiles, dinosaurs (which eventually became birds) and the mammaliaform forerunners of mammals all got their start during this time of radical change.

The Triassic-Jurassic defined based on another mass extinction due Pangaea breaking apart; again, volcanoes played a major role in that mass extinction. Many dinosaurs survived and they remained the dominant group in the Jurassic, but 30 million years into the Jurassic, the mammal lineage underwent another, far larger burst of evolution. [One has to ask the question, "why?"]

Castorocauda: earliest knownn swimming mammal. [Interestingly, according to the diagram, the Castorocauda is not a mammal; typo?]

Likewise, in the diagram Docofossor not labeled as a mammal but in the narrative, it is called a  mole-like mammal.

Agilodocodon, also according to the diagram, not a mammal, was an agile tree climber, much like a squirrel.

Volaticoterium, perhaps the strangest of all would have looked like a flying squirrel.

Fruitafossor, a mammal, was an ant-eating digger.

During the Middle Jurassic, the number of mammalian species skyrocketed. Two large groups diverged: the monotremes and the therians (the broader group that comprises the marsupials and the placentals).

Then, in the Cretaceous, the unexpected happened, an event that would reset the course of mammal history: a totally new type of plant evolved -- angiosperms.

One More Reason To Listen To Willie Nelson All Night -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 8, 2016

After this note, or because of this note, I think I'm gonna sit back and listen to Willie Nelson all night, get drunk on legal alcohol or get high on illegal drugs (off the coast, three miles out):
In light of recent incidents and concerns raised by Samsung about its Galaxy Note 7 devices, the Federal Aviation Administration strongly advises passengers not to turn on or charge these devices on board aircraft and not to stow them in any checked baggage.
"... strongly advises..."

Okay, that solves the problem. 

[These are the devices that spontaneously burst into flames.] And people complain about Apple removing the 3.5 mm headphone "jack." LOL.

I think President Obama "strongly advised" ISIS to throw down their arms and return to their caves, and one sees how good well that turned out.

Touch Me, Willie Nelson

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72-Hour Forecasts? Problematic
100-Year Computer Weather Modeling: Infallible

The same scientists -- the NOAA folks -- who tell us that the average global temperature will increase by 2.4 degrees 100 years from now completely blew the 72-hour forecast on Hurricane Hermione.

Link here.
Last week, on Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center predicted that by 2 p.m. Saturday, the storm would be within 50 nautical miles of the North Carolina coast. In fact, it ended up about 90 nautical miles east of the coast — well within normal error for a day in advance.
But by Sunday, something changed. In that same Friday forecast, the center’s meteorologists had predicted that by 2 p.m. Sunday, the storm would be about 100 miles east of the Maryland coast.
Yet in fact, it traveled 168 nautical miles east and a little south of the forecasted location — well above the average two-day error of 80.
Some folks are not even convinced it was a hurricane to begin with.

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Body Doubles and Stand-Ins
The Girl In Alfred Hitchcock's Shower
A Murder That Became A Real-life Mystery
A Mystery That Became An Obsession
Roberg Graysmith
c. 2010

Miserably painful to read.

Janet Leigh's body double: Marli Renfro, stage name, not murdered.
Janet Leigh's stand in: Myra Davis, murdered, 1988.

The Best Number In The Universe -- And It Strikes The Bakken -- September 8, 2016

Okay, possums, as Dame Edna would say, this is the most important post of the year. Okay, not the most important, but certainly the most interesting for number theorists.

What is the best number in the universe?

Since you asked: 73.

Why? 73 is the 21st prime number. Its mirror, 37, is the 12th and its mirror, 21, is the product of multiplying 7 and 3... and in binary 73 is a palindrome, 1001001, which backwards is 1001001.

For more on such inanity, visit wiki: http://bigbangtheory.wikia.com/wiki/73:
  • Sheldon: "The best number is 73. Why? 73 is the 21st prime number. Its mirror, 37, is the 12th and its mirror, 21, is the product of multiplying 7 and 3... and in binary 73 is a palindrome, 1001001, which backwards is 1001001."
  • Leonard: "73 is the Chuck Norris of numbers!"
  • Sheldon: "Chuck Norris wishes... all Chuck Norris backwards gets you is Sirron Kcuhc!"'
And what does this have to do with the Bakken, you ask?

Everything.

You will not see this often.

But here it is. Not photo-shopped. Genuine. Really.


Sheldon's Favorite Number, Big Bang Theory

Saudi Arabia Production Coming Down After Seasonal Push -- September 8, 2016

Before we get to my notes, take a look at Mark Perry's "Thursday afternoon links." Some interesting stuff. I particularly like the map showing the eighteen (18) urban areas that together account for 50% of US GDP. Texas has two urban areas: Houston, and DFW. The map will be updated later, but if I read it correctly, the two areas in California are in the Bay Area (Silicon Valley) and in Orange County (Disneyland) and south to San Diego County. Los Angeles County does not figure in the 50%. The Minneapolis/St Paul area does. Take a look. Tell me if I'm wrong. If correct, that speaks volumes about LA County, considering: LAX, Port of Los Angeles, and Port of Long Beach, just for starters.

Other notable urban areas that contribute to the "50%": Denver; Phoenix-Tucson; Seattle and down to Portland, I believe; and, Atlanta, I believe.

But, broad brush, California looks fairly bleak. Considering.

By the way, this is the kind of demographic / graphics The Atlantic used to have in abundance until it changed it format, and its editorial policies. 

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 An Energetic Non-Story

This, of course, is a non-story, but apparently energy reporters are looking for anything on a slow news day.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its oil production dropped by 40,000 barrels a day in August to 10.63 million barrels as the group debates a deal to curb output to shore up prices.
The figures were submitted to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according a person with knowledge of the data.
The country’s output declined from an all-time high of 10.67 million barrels a day in July.
OPEC and Russia are putting cooperation back on the table, after two years of a Saudi-led strategy by the producer group to pump flat out to protect market share against the surge in U.S. shale oil. Their last attempt to do this -- a proposal to freeze output in April -- collapsed after Saudi Arabia refused to proceed without all OPEC states, including regional rival Iran, participating.
And so it goes.

Meanwhile, US gasoline demand as reported by the EIA:


Note how the "delta" between this year and last year has widened this past week.

Oasis To Report Another Nice Andersmadson Well Friday; Four New Permits -- September 8, 2016

Active rigs:


9/8/201609/08/201509/08/201409/08/201309/08/2012
Active Rigs3773196184191

Two wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 30811, 1,119, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 14-25 12T, Camp, producing, the Andersmadson wells are tracked here; 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs; t3/16; cum 78K 7/16;
  • 30831, SI/NC, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36B, Bear Creek, no production data,
Four new permits:
  • Operators: Petro harvester, Whiting
  • Fields: Portal (Burke), Banks (McKenize)
  • Comments:
The five wells that came off confidential list today were all Hess wells, all "permits canceled"; four BL-Blanchard wells in Williams County and one HA-State well in McKenzie (previously reported)

Eleven permits renewed:
  • Slawson (4): two Vixen Federal permits; one Armada Federal permit; and, one Phoenix permit, all in Mountrail County
  • Slawson (3): two Moleback permits and one Atlantis Federal permit, all in Mountrail County
  • Whiting (4): Two Koppinger permits; one Cymbaluk Federal permit; and, one Obrigewitch, permit, all in Stark County
One producing well completed:
  • 30425, 836, Hess, HA-Sanford-152-96-1819H-10, Westberg, t8/16; cum --
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30811, see above, Oasis, Andersmadson 5201 14-25 12T, Camp:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20161169012218
6-20161413912806
5-20161529911775
4-20161466112756
3-20162205423017