Thursday, November 12, 2015

I'll Finish This Post Over The Weekend, But See If You See What I'm Seeing -- November 12, 2015

29054, fracked 6/6//15 - 7/29/15;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2015292131921208411707016477141
BAKKEN8-20151067076532155456544240


17613, 690, fracked/tested 7/10/2009 (6 years ago):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2015303471354725551627130716
BAKKEN8-20154152049976390
BAKKEN7-20150000000
BAKKEN6-20152980485927911088210
BAKKEN5-2015318648791379045900
BAKKEN4-201530857970107594550
BAKKEN3-201531913908173820346160


24667, 1,779, fracked/tested 7/15/2004 (last year):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2015283112309221315521182
BAKKEN8-20152542529131904534815
BAKKEN7-2015182541293822
BAKKEN6-201530335732663742424194218
BAKKEN5-201513188919601694570438214
BAKKEN4-20153077827777020488200050
BAKKEN3-2015319220923563620303157854019


Reason #4 Why I Love To Blog-- November 12, 2015

Updates

November 16, 2015: a reader responded to my thoughts on CBR to the west coast, below:

I'll bet $10 against your penny that except for other than minor expansions at existing ports nothing will be built in the next 10 years. This is a report from Paso Robles, CA, central coast California:
In the town south here, Templeton, CA, the train goes right along side the school. No one ever thought that was bad place for the school...until they heard about CBR. It is absolutely positively the hottest discussion topic here in Paso..."we can't allow THAT."
There's a small refinery about 30 miles southwest of here that exports all of it's product to the far east...."we don't get ANY benefit from it."
A few miles farther south is the deeply liberal college town San Luis Obispo home of Cal-Poly, the tracks goes right through the heart of the city.
This is the land of fruit and nuts, and Oregon and Washington are fruit-and-nut wanna-be's. With the newly-elected liberal government in Canada crude oil exports from British Columbia are out of the question.
My understanding is that most of the crude into California is via tankers, mostly from Alaska...which will soon be a thing of the past. We'll just have to ship it in from Mexico and South America...probably add $1.00 a gallon, so we pay $2.00 more per gallon than the rest of USA...not a problem.
Morro Bay is 25 miles west of here - where a huge, maybe 500 MW gas-fired, power station sits idle...as it has for many years. Meanwhile, this past week, plans were announced to build a wind farm 50 miles offshore from Morro Bay.
(Trump thinks people in Iowa are stupid...wait until he checks out California).
Original Post
 
On November 7, 2015, once the Keystone XL was officially dead, I posted this:
Commentators are looking east when they should be looking west. The tea leaves tell me that California is in a world of pain when it comes to oil. The Bakken contributes a small amount, but a significant amount of oil, to California, but with the loss of the Keystone, and the likely loss (and definite delay) of the Sandpiper and the Dakota Access, this is an incredible opportunity for Enbridge CBR and Warren Buffett CBR to start looking at increased shipments to the Far West. Again, all things being equal, California is going to need more Bakken oil.
At the time I wrote it, I was aware that CBR destined for California would go through the Pacific Northwest.

A reader sent me this story this evening, in which Puget Sound Business Journal is reporting just that:
A new report from research group Oil Change International, commissioned by Seattle-based nonprofit think tank the Sightline Institute, found that in Keystone's absence, the oil industry will now likely turn to massive oil-by-rail terminals proposed across the Pacific Northwest as a second-best alternative for transporting the commodity.
Much more at the link, but the point is made.

******************************
A Day Late, And A Dollar Short

I guess it was "Back To The Future" day a few days ago; I missed it -- "a day late, and a dollar short." But I went out and bought the entire trilogy in a metal case at Target a week ago, and finally got around to watching it this week. I watched it over the course of three evenings, and finally finished it tonight. I had forgotten how really good it was. (I'm not sure if I will watch the two sequels; I generally don't care for sequels). I am quite impressed how well the movie holds up over the years. I haven't watched the extras yet; it will be interesting to watch some of the extras.

Eighteen (18) New Permits -- November 12, 2015

Active rigs:


11/12/201511/12/201411/12/201311/12/201211/12/2011
Active Rigs64188181191201

Eighteen (18) new permits --
  • Operators: Oasis (12), CLR (5), Statoil
    • 32238, loc, Statoil, Mark 4-9F XE 1H, Williston
    • 32239, loc, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 41-33 14BX, Siverston,
    • 32240, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 2TX, Siverston,
    • 32241, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 3B, Siverston,
    • 32242, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 4T, Siverston,
    • 32243, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 5B, Siverston,
    • 32244, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 6T, Siverston,
    • 32245, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 31-4 7B, Siverston,
    • 32246, loc, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 8T, Siverston,
    • 32247, loc, Oasis, Forland 5098 31-4 9B, Siverston,
    • 32248, loc, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 10T, Siverston,
    • 32249, loc, CLR, Jack 9-9H, Murphy Creek,
    • 32250, loc, CLR, Jack 8-9H, Murphy Creek,
    • 32251, loc, CLR, Jack 7-9H1, Murphy Creek,
    • 32252, loc, CLR, Jack 6-9H, Murphy Creek,
    • 32253, loc, CLR, Jack 5-9H1, Murphy Creek,
    • 32254, loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 11T, Siverston,
    • 32255,  loc, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 12B, Siverston,  
  • Fields: Siverston, Murphy Creek, Williston
  • Comments:
Renewals: there was a correction to the 11/10/15 daily activity report. the following renewals should have been reported:
  • Whiting, 3, all 3 permits for McDonald wells in Billings County
  • CLR, 8, the 8 permits were for Hartford/Dover wells in Williams County
  • Murex, 4, the four permits were for Skari wells in McKenzie County
  • Petro-Hunt had one renewal, a Sabrosky well in Dunn County
  • Triangle Petroleum had one renewal, a Novak well in McKenzie County
Three more renewals today:
  • American Eagle had two permits renewed, an Armstrong well and a Border Ranch well in Divide County
  • Petro-Hunt had one renewal, a Kostelnak well in Dunn County

Legos Won't Have Enough Bricks For Everyone This Year -- November 12, 2015

Updates

September 7, 2016: in The Washington Post, why Lego wanted people to stop buying its toys. They simply could not keep up.
 
Original Post
 
This was from a post about eighteen (18) months ago:
There were two LEGO stories in the WSJ yesterday and today. The first story: Lego will boost capacity at Mexican factory. Quick: what is the world's #2 toy maker by revenue? Lego. Behind Mattel. #2 toy maker and they only make one product: little plastic bricks. I think I've blogged about Lego's incredibly successful turnaround several times over the years. The second Lego story was posted on-line yesterday, not sure if it was in Friday's paper or today's paper: Lego's evolution will be digitized.
My younger daughter and I spent hours working on Lego projects when we were living overseas. We had one small room turned over completely to Lego projects in our small apartment. Now twenty or thirty years later, she is still enjoying Lego and I enjoy remembering the stories.

In today's WSJ there is a story suggesting that Lego cannot keep up with demand.
Lego A/S has spent years overhauling its supply chain to keep up with surging demand for its colorful plastic bricks, but a likely product shortfall in Europe for the coming holiday season shows it still has more work to do. The toy giant’s plant here is running at full capacity, churning out 72 million bricks a day, and one in the Hungarian city of Nyíregyháza is blasting away as well. 
Nevertheless, Lego said last month it expects it will be unable to deliver new orders coming from European toy stores in the run-up to the holidays. It said the U.S., which is served by a plant in Monterrey, Mexico, should be fully supplied. 
The European shortfall is emblematic of the challenges Lego faces as it vies with U.S. rival Mattel Inc. for the position of the world’s largest toy maker, selling to about 85 million children across 144 countries. The Danish company in September said first-half revenue jumped 23% to 14.12 billion kroner ($2.03 billion), buoyed by product lines like the Lego Ninjago and Lego Elves sets.
CNN says right out that Lego won't have enough bricks for everyone.

One of several large ships made of Lego bricks that our younger daughter has put together over the years. This particular one I gave her about two years ago and she recently completed it after moving into a house big enough for her Lego sets.


I've posted several times on Lego. It's a very, very interesting turn-around story. I always thought it was Star Wars that accounted for its stunning turn-around, but a Lego employee once told me it was a different move. I forget which one, and I may have the story completely wrong.

If not enough bricks, I guess some kids will have to settle for briquettes. 

Update On The MDU-Calument Diesel Topping Refinery West of Dickinson, ND -- November 12, 2015

Argus Media has an update on the MDU-Calumet refinery west of Dickinson:
Struggling Bakken crude producers have at least one refiner sharing their pain.
Dakota Prairie, a 20,000 b/d refining joint venture of MDU Resources and Calumet Specialty Products Partners that began operating in April, posted a $19.1mn loss in the third quarter.
At full rates, Dakota Prairie produces 7,000 b/d of diesel, 6,500 b/d of naphtha shipped to Canada for diluent and 6,000 b/d of atmospheric bottoms shipped to a Calumet refinery in Montana for processing through a hydrocracker. MDU Resources anticipated gross earnings of $60mn to $80mn at the facility, and considered a second refinery at similar scale as an April startup approached last year.
MDU Resources still expects the refinery to become profitable. Dakota Prairie has begun making a winter-grade diesel that MDU Resources expects could earn a 10¢/USG to 20¢/USG premium to other diesel. Contractor expenses will drop off next year as the facility gains more operating experience and needs fewer start up personnel.
Much, much more at the link.



Meanwhile, MDU appears to be having more success with its wind energy partner. RENews is reporting that its dicing and slicing project code-named Thunder Spirit is producing electricity:
Allete has announced that the first of 43 Nordex N100 turbines at the 107MW Thunder Spirit wind farm in North Dakota, USA has started to generate electricity.
The first turbine went online on October 21, rapidly followed by four more at the renewable energy farm which is being built about 100 miles southwest of Bismarck.
It is expected to be completed by December and the energy produced will be sold to Montana Dakota Utilities.
I don't know what happened to the rest of the turbines. Back in 2013, it was reported there would be 75 turbines (vs the 43 reported above) at a cost of $300 million. On August 11, 2015, it was reported that there would be only 43 turbines, 107.5 MW, but the cost not provided. $300 million / 107.5 MW  = $2.8 million / MW, but perhaps with 43 turbines, the price has come down.

From Outrun Change:
Some other info on the Thunder Spirit slice-and-dice farm near Hettinger, North Dakota:
  • Allete Clean Energy – the shell company that owns the wind farm, in turn a subsidiary of Allete.
  • 43 – number of turbines
  • 10,000 acres – footprint of wind farm
  • 2.7 – turbines per square mile
  • 2.5 MW – rated capacity of each turbine
  • 426,000 mWh – expected output per year for 43 turbines
  • 9,907 mWh – Expected annual output per turbine (calculated as 426,000 mWh divided by 43)
  • 10.86 hours – expected time each day that each turbine will be operating at capacity (calculated as 9907 mWh each turbine divided by 2.5 MW theoretical capacity divided by 365)
  • 45% – percent of theoretical capacity that is expected to actually be delivered. From what I have read, this would be an extraordinarily efficient wind farm. I expect the actual capacity to be below 45%.
The expected utilization is that the wind farm will deliver 45% of the theoretical capacity.
A google search results in numerous articles with differing number of turbines, different costs, etc, etc. The Bismark Tribune reported it was a $350 million project for 150 MW back in 2013 when it was just getting approved, or about $2.3 million / MW. Whatever the actual number, it seems to be running about what onshore wind farms are going for in the US.

At the end of the day, about 100 MW, about $2.5 million / MW, and smack dab in the center of one of North America's busiest flyways.