Thursday, February 26, 2015

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Biggest Draw To Date This Winter? -- February 26, 2015

Natural gas fill rate (dynamic link): -219. One of the biggest draws, if not the biggest draw, this winter. Stocks were 576 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 30 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,968 Bcf.

Also, note earlier posting regarding this.

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Emergency Responders Respond To Possible Ebola In Virginia

Link here.

At least it's hard to catch. 
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Quote of the Day

"There is no such thing as consensus in science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. It it's science, it isn't consensus." -- Michael Crichton (from Rocket Girl, George D. Morgan, c. 2013, p. 199)

"The discussion is over; it's closed." -- Warmists

Industry Cutting Back On Renewable Energy; Coal Production Increases In North Dakota -- February 26, 2015; 3/3 Wells To DRL Status

Wells coming off the confidential list today have been posted. Link here; all three went to DRL status. Although it's only an estimate, the question arises whether North Dakota will set a new record of number of wells waiting to be fracked when the March, April, and/or May, 2015, Director's Cuts are posted. During most of the boom the number of wells waiting to be fracked was in the 250 - 450 range. Most recently, two months running, the number is closer to 750. During the winter (January, February, March) and during spring thaw (March, April, May) fracking is also negatively impacted. The Director's Cut that comes out in mid-March will be the first report for 2015 data, starting with January, 2015.

Biofuel production cut. The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Archer Daniels Midland, one of the world’s top biofuels producers, has slowed North American biodiesel output, the latest sign the industry is battling uncertainty over U.S. renewable fuel policy while the oil rout curbs demand.
The Chicago-based agri business has “temporarily” shifted production at its Velva oilseeds processing facility from biodiesel to other products and cut production at its other North American facilities, ADM spokeswoman Jackie Anderson said in an emailed statement.
With 140 million gallons of annual capacity at its wholly-owned Velva site and two joint ventures in Missouri, ADM is a sizeable player in the 2-billion gallon U.S. industry.
The ADM spokeswoman declined to give the timing and size of the cutbacks. The Northern Canola Growers Association said the switch in North Dakota took place a few months ago.
Meanwhile, North Dakota coal production increases. The Dickinson Press is reporting:
While North Dakota leaders question the future of the oil industry, another natural resource is increasing in production.
The state’s four lignite mines sold approximately 28.7 million tons of coal last year, up from 27.7 million tons in 2013. The mines near Beulah, Center and Underwood increased or maintained their 2013 production levels.
Less than two years left in this presidency. Funny how things turn out.

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The Ukraine

I believe I read somewhere in the last 24 hours that the Ukrainian government forces ("the good guys") are starting to remove their military equipment from the Eastern Ukraine. In the old days, this was called a "strategic retreat."

Meanwhile, the AP is reporting that Russia ("the bad guys") could cut off natural gas supply to the Ukraine by the end of the week. Not to worry: the French will take up / make the slack. The move by Russia is not political; it's 100% financial; the Ukraine is not paying for the natural gas they get from Russia. I'm sure the Germans will be happy to pay for that natural gas.

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Good Timing

Tweeting now:
US wraps up Ebola military mission in Liberia - @AFP 
Yesterday's tweet:
Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone report 99 new confirmed Ebola cases in week ending Feb. 22, per World Health Organization - @Reuters
At least it's hard to catch.

Unemployment Claims Surge 31,000; Now, Back Over 300,000 -- February 26, 2015; "Surged Unexpectedly" -- Bloomberg; "Far Outside" The Forecast -- Econoday

Updates

Later, 8:28 a.m. CT: Bloomberg notes that "the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by the most since December 2013 last week from a week earlier, a sign of uneven progress in the labor market."
 
Original Post

First time unemployment claims surge 31,000 to 313,000. Just heard that on the radio. Can't wait to read the spin. I'll bet a week's pay that Reuters says this is evidence that job market remains healthy.

Yes, here it is, from the AP:

  • Applications for US unemployment benefits jump to 313,000; level still points to solid hiring.
Well, that's good news for the 313,000 that just got pink slips.

Bloomberg not quite so enthused with the report:
Initial jobless claims surged unexpectedly in the February 21 week, up 31,000 to a 313,000 level that is far outside the Econoday consensus (279,000 to 300,000).

The 4-week average is up 11,500 to 294,500 but is still more than 10,000 below a month ago in a comparison that, despite the latest week's surge, still points to improvement for the labor market.

Data on continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, are mixed. Continuing claims for the February 21 week fell 21,000 to 2.401 million but the 4-week average rose 2,000 to 2.399 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

The impact of the disappointment for initial claims is likely to be mitigated by a couple of factors: the February 21 week was a week shortened by Presidents' Day, a factor that makes for outsized adjustments to the data, and the prior week, the February 14 week, not the latest week, was the sample week for the monthly employment report. 

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Follow-Up On That $181 Million Nuverra Lawsuit -- February 25, 2015

I had forgotten all about this one. 

The original story was posted here. At that time, despite the $181 million lawsuit, "...based on the pre-award analysis of the case, Heckmann Water Resources exposure in this matter was not expected to exceed its available insurance limits of $16 million."

Here is the follow-up in a Nuverra press release, dated July 16, 2014:
Nuverra has agreed to fund $5.5 million of the total settlement amount to fully resolve the matter. The settlements were fully approved by the District Court of Dimmit County on July 15, 2014. Terms of the settlements, including the total settlement amounts and the portion paid by the Company’s insurer, are confidential. These settlement agreements include all plaintiffs and the Company’s insurer and release Nuverra and all of its subsidiaries from all past and future claims or liabilities related to this matter.
The Company will take a charge related to the settlement in the second quarter ended June 30, 2014, which will include the $5.5 million one-time cash payment and related legal fees and defense costs. 
Surprise, surprise -- came in well under the "available insurance limits."

I wonder how the jury came up with the initial $181 million, rather than, let's say, $179 million or $183.5 million. Ya gotta love these Texas juries.

Eight (8) New Permits -- February 25, 2015

Dividends of note:
  • Home Depot increases dividend from 47 cents to 59 cents
  • Comcast increases dividend from 22.5 cents to 25 cent
Reporting tomorrow:
  • Northern Oil & Gas, forecast 19 cents; big beat, 95 cents; press release here; shares up;
  • SandRidge Energy (SD), forecast 0; big beat; 8 cents; press release here;
  • Sempra Energy (SRE), forecast $1.09; nice beat; beats by 14 cents at $1.23; Zacks here;
  • WPX Energy (WPX), forecast a loss of 15 cents; huge beat; earns 3 cents/share; Zacks here;
  • Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI), forecast 27 cents; miss, 24 cents; press release here;
  • CLNE, forecast 67 cents; after market close:
  • Herbalife, forecast $1.22, AP story here; huge beat, $1.42/share;
  • Southwestern Energy (SWN), forecast 50 cents; beat, 52 cents; press release;
From Kemp, Rigzone, via Bakken.com:
North Dakota’s oil producers have pulled back to the core areas of the Bakken formation to cut costs and maximize output amid the slump in prices.
The number of active rigs in the state has fallen to just 121, from 190 a year ago, according to an active rig list published by the state’s Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) on Wednesday.
The rig count is now below the threshold of “at least 130″ DMR Director Lynn Helms identified last month as needed to sustain output at the current level of just over 1.2 million barrels per day.
But more important than the raw number is their distribution across the state, with drilling now increasingly concentrated in only the most promising areas.
Of the 121 rigs active on Wednesday, 115 are drilling in just four counties at the heart of the Bakken – Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail and Williams.

Active rigs:


2/25/201502/25/201402/25/201302/25/201202/25/2011
Active Rigs121190181204169

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Eight (8) new permits --
  • Operators: BTA (3), Whiting (2), SM Energy (2), Oasis
  • Fields: Beaver Creek (Golden Valley), Sanish (Mountrail), Poe (McKenzie), Baker (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
One permit canceled: another Zavanna Usher permit in McKenzie County.

Seven (7) producing wells completed:
  • 29018, 2,129, Whiting, Mrachek 21-26-4H, Nameless, t2/15; cum --
  • 29198, 2,248, Whiting, Mrachek 21-26-5H, Nameless, t2/15; cum --
  • 27605, 1,272, BR, Bullrush 34-10TFH-A, Elidah, t2/15; cum --
  • 28287, 2,285, BR, Shenandoah 24-36MBH, Keene, t1/15; cum --
  • 29490, 2,285, Whiting, Fladeland 31-12TFH, Sanish, t1/15; cum --
  • 28365, 1,320, BR, CCU Pullman 6-8-7TFH, Corral Creek, t1/15; cum --
  • 28074, 1,643, BR, Shenandoah 14-36MBH, Keene, t1/15; cum --
Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:
  • 26954, drl, CLR, Ryden 2-24AH1, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 27038, drl, SHD, Canon 12-36H, Clarks Creek, no production data,
  • 28848, drl, MRO, Sydney 14-9TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
RBN Energy: holding by production, part 1.
Will hold-by-production (HBP) drilling by producers acting to preserve their leases for the longer term end up sending U.S. oil and gas production volumes higher when energy fundamentals and prices suggest production should slow down? This has happened before, with one of the highest profile instances in the Haynesville Shale between 2009-13, leading to even lower natural gas prices. Could it happen again in the Marcellus this year?  Today we continue our look at HBP lease provisions with a focus on the Marcellus.
In Part 1 we looked at the HBP provision that is a standard component of oil and gas land lease agreements between producers and mineral rights owners in the U.S. Producers can pay bonuses of thousands of dollars per acre for rights to conduct exploration and production activities on parcels of private land. However lease agreements typically dictate that drilling rights expire after an initial term, (that varies by negotiation but is typically 3-5 years) unless the lease operator produces minimum commercial quantities of oil or gas from the acreage to hold the lease by production. Once HBP’d the lease begins a second term that lasts as long as minimum production continues.
We discussed how HBP clauses sometimes lead to “forced drilling” by producers to preserve drilling rights beyond the primary term. In the Haynesville, LA dry gas play there was a leasing frenzy in 2008-09 as producers rushed in to sign up landowners – typically with a 3-year initial term. Just as they began developing the shale in earnest, gas prices tumbled below breakeven levels ($4/MMBtu at the time in the Haynesville). But despite the poor economics, producers continued drilling because of the need to secure their leases by production. After the 3-year terms expired around 2011-12, new drilling and production declined. For reference, Figure 1 is the graph from Part I that shows the Haynesville lease timeline, production volumes, gas prices, and breakeven.