Weather Alert -- North Dakota -- November 26, 2014

Crystal, North Dakota, Radio Station

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Second Autumn Event, 2014 Global Warming   Albany, NY, breaks 1888 snowfall record with 6'7" inches falling on Wednesday - Only Approximately 15 people reported protesting in Ferguson, MO, as snow falls on area 
More than 48,000 New York customers without power due to snow storm, utilities company reports 
Northeast: 730 flights canceled; 4,300 delayed 
Approximately 300,000 customers reported without power in New England due to snow storm, utilities companies say

Fusion's Flurry Of Fury -- Schumer, ObamaCare -- November 26, 2014

Flurry of Fury Over ObamaCare

I do not yet know the context, but this is quite incredible. There is one big "message" here.

I'll come back to it later. [Update: initial thoughts here.]


Senator Schumer Admits ObamaCare Was a Mistake
Fusion reports: flurry of intraparty fury after Schumer's remarks.

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Wednesday Night At The Movies

Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris and then The Great Gatsby. Going to be a great night. 

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Active rigs:

	11/26/2014	11/26/2013	11/26/2012	11/26/2011	11/26/2010
Active Rigs	183	193	185	202	163

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Thirteen (13) new permits --

• Operators: Oasis (5), Emerald Oil (4), XTO (4)
• Fields: Missouri Ridge (Williams), Boxcar Butte (McKenzie), Dollar Joe (Williams),
  Comments:

Two (2) producing wells completed:

• 27538, 1,164, Whiting, Knife River State Federal 13-32TFH, Sanish, t10/14; cum --
• 27907, n/d, CLR, Vachal 10-27H3,  Alkali Creek, c10/14; no IP;

Natural Gas Fill Rate Falls And It's A Doozy -- November 26, 2014

I was surprised by this. It looks like the natural gas fill rate will be released at 12:00 noon today. This post might have the best background for newbies. The tag at the bottom of the post, "NG_Fill_Rate" will take you to previous posts on this subject in chronological order.

Wow, wow, wow -- today's number (a dynamic link): - 162. 

The narrative:

This represents a net decline of 162 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 346 Bcf less than last year at this time and 400 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,832 Bcf.

In the East Region, stocks were 183 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 89 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 166 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,257 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 55 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 52 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 18 Bcf. At 3,432 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.  

Even the producing region saw a net withdrawal. 

Most incredibly, look at the graph at the link, the gap between today's data point and the 5-year historical average has widened.

The "historical decline rate" for the past month (October 14 - November 21) was always pretty flat. This year, that same period, a distinctive downturn. Global warming.

Natural gas is currently up 6 cents, to $4.46, trending higher. The first monthly report for winter is still five weeks away.

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The Road To Germany

A reader sent me this link:

State utility regulators today approved a 500-mile transmission line designed to ferry thousands of megawatts of power from wind farms in Iowa and other Plains states into the Chicago market.

The unanimous endorsement by the Illinois Commerce Commission, over the opposition of Commonwealth Edison, was a major regulatory hurdle for the developers of the $2 billion Rock Island Clean Line.

I've become "agnostic" with regard to wind, but the fact that Commonwealth Edison opposed this suggests the utility is concerned about the "road to Germany" in which utilities are at great risk with the business model being proposed by the Illinois Commerce Commission, but it's their call, and the "road to Germany" is well-known.

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Some Parting Thoughts

Remember: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Some data points and stories that pretty much tell  us some exciting things about the energy picture in North America. 

• the RBN Energy story posted earlier today about how huge the Canadian oil sands really is
• the CNBC video from yesterday telling us how much energy India and China will need through 2035
• that same CNBC video that suggests the Bakken is "bigger" than the Arctic (the Arctic matters not for the moment; Nero has written off the Arctic, pretty much giving the Arctic to Russia, Denmark, Canada, and a few others)
• the record high UNP recorded yesterday; its dividend history; and its forecast
• how inexpensive gasoline is today, and how incredible the supplies of oil will be for the rest of my life, and possibly for the rest of my daughters' lives; the Peak Oil graph will move to the right for another 30 years
• the incredible opportunities young investors have today compared to when Warren Buffett was starting out
• LNG exports begin in earnest next year
• crude oil pipelines are full; imagine how much more is needed (based on all the CBR that needs to be turned into pipeline)

Random Update On Scanlan And Pankowski -- November 26, 2014

The graphics:

 The wells:

• 33404, 2,053, Whiting, Thomas 43-4H, Truax, t1/18; cum 203K 7/19; cum 257K 11/22;
  
• 33405, 1,229, Whiting, Thomas 43-4TFH, Truax, t1/18; cum 171K 7/19; cum 2239K 11/22;
  
• 33406, 2,502, Whiting, Thomas 43-2H, Truax, t1/18; cum 162K 7/19; cum 319K 11/22;
  
• 33407, 1,633, Whiting, Thomas 43-2TFH, Truax, t1/18; cum 199K 7/19; cum 267K 11/22;
  

• 33409, 1,102, Whiting, Scanlan 42-9TFH, Truax, t12/17; cum 176K 7/19; cum 240K 11/11;
  
• 33410, 1,947, Whiting, Scanlan 42-9-2TFH, Truax, t12/17; cum 176K 7/19; cum 185K 11/22;
  
• 33411, 1,980, Whiting, Scanlan 42-9-3TFH, Truax, t12/17; cum 139K 7/19; cum 194K 11/22;
  

• 25602, 2,631, Whiting, P Scanlan 153-98-16-9-5-5H, Truax, t3/14; cum 323K 7/19; cum 338K 11/22;
  
• 25601, 1,461, Whiting, P Scanlan 153-98-16-9-11-16H3, Truax, t4/14; cum 97K 7/19; cum 140K 11/22;
  
• 25600, 2,665, Whiting, P Scanlan 153-98-16-9-5-12H, Truax, t3/14; cum 308K 7/19; cum 353K 11/22;
  
• 27122, 2,372, Whiting, P Scanlan 153-98-16-9-11-16H, Truax, t4/14; cum 242K 7/19; cum 365K 11/22;
  

• 18770, 819, Whiting, Scanlan 3-5H, Truax, t9/10; cum 367K 7/19; cum 397K 11/22;
  

• 33294, 1,600, Whiting, Scanlan 11-5-2TFH, Truax, t1/18; cum 165K 7/19; cum 256K 11/22;
  
• 33295, 1,595, Whiting, Scanlan 11-5TFH, Truax, t1/18; cum 229K 7/19; cum 25K 11/22;
  
• 33296, 2.095, Whiting, Scanlan 11-5-2H, Truax, t12/17; cum 194K 7/19; cum 253K 11/22;
  
• 33297, 1,591, Whiting, Scanlan 11-5H, Truax, t12/17; cum 243K 7/19; cum 325K 11/22;
  

• 20856, 1,349, Whiting, King 3-8H, Truax, t1/12; cum 354K 7/19; see full production data here; cum 407K 11/22;
  
• 33455, 2,454, Whiting, King 11-8H, Truax, t12/17; cum 207K 7/19; cum 274K 11/22;
  
• 33456, 1,252, Whiting, King 11-8-2H, Truax, t12/17; cum 195K 7/19; cum 248K 11/22;
  
• 33457, 1,525, Whiting, King 11-8TFHU, Truax, t12/17; cum 190K 7/19; cum 269K 11/22;
  

• 28717, 3,638, Whiting, P Johnson153-98-1-6-7-16HA, Truax, t8/15; cum 465K 7/19; cum 557K 211/22;
  
• 28715, 3,899, Whiting, P Johnson153-98-1-6-7-16H, Truax, t9/15; cum 428K 7/19; cum 511K 11/22;
  

• 31086, 2,249, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13H, Truax, t9/15; cum 369K 7/19; cum 425K 11/22;
  
• 31087, 2,399, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13H3, Truax, t9/15; cum 205K 7/19; cum 240K 11/22;
  
• 31088, 2,248, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-13HA, Truax, t9/15; cum 3145K 7/19; cum 366K 11/22;
  
• 31089, 2,374, Whiting, P Pankowski 153-98-4-6-7-14H3, Truax, t10/15; cum 244K 7/19; cum 291K 11/22;
  

• 20857, 358, Whiting, Pankowski 4-6H, t2/12; cum 259K 7/19; with periodic small jumps in production, month-over-month; cum 273K 11/22;
  

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Original Post

NOTE: starting with cumulative totals in October, 2014, an asterisk should be placed, stating that producers could be choking back production starting in October, 2014, in the Bakken for any number of reasons:

• backlog in rail (BNSF said they were going to cut back on takeaway to make room for grain)
• global slump in oil prices
• tsunami of oil arriving at destinations
• North Dakota flaring rules go into effect 

18770, 819, Whiting/KOG, Scanlan 3-5H, Truax, t9/10; cum 285K 12/17; updated here;

20857, 358, Whiting/KOG, Pankowsi 4-6H, Truax, t2/12; cum 240K 112/17;

25599, dry, Whiting/KOG, P Scanlan 153-98-16-9-11-16H, c11/13; cement casing failure on surface spud;
25600, 2,665, Whiting/KOG, P Scanland 153-98-16-9-5-12H, t3/14; cum 238K 112/17;
25601, 1,461, Whiting/KOG, P Scanlan 153-98-16-9-11-16H3, t4/14; cum 83K 112/17;
25602, 2,631, Whiting/KOG, P Scanland 153-98-16-9-5-5H, t3/14; cum 281K 112/17;

This is what this area currently looks like:

One can tell from the map, that there is a lot more room for a lot more Scanlan wells.

I "wish" NDIC would make a distinction between "truly dry wildcats" and wells that were not completed due to operational issues, not that the well was "truly dry."

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A Note For The Granddaughters

I remember when I was the manager for our high school football team. I was responsible for tracking rushing and passing statistics (among a whole of other things). I was never told how to do things, "just do it." (Nike.) So, when it came to passing, I tracked the yardage of the pass itself, and then the yardage gained after the pass. My coach thought I was nuts. He just wanted the "passing yardage," and he didn't want it broken down into two elements. I see now, the NFL and the television broadcasters break it down the same way.