Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Tuesday, August 26, 2014; Statoil Cutting Back; Congresswoman Calling For Boycotting Burger King

Statoil cutting back. Reuters via Rigzone is reporting:
Norwegian energy firm Statoil will only slightly raise its U.S. shale oil and gas output in the near term due to spending curbs, well below a potential for a 50 percent surge, the firm said on Monday.
Statoil, which produces around a tenth of its oil and gas from its U.S. shale operations in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Marcellus formations, has even cut back investments in the area, as shale projects are competing for capital within the company, said Torstein Hole, Statoil's chief for U.S. onshore activities.
Statoil abandoned its 2020 production target earlier this year and cut its capital spending budget, arguing that it needs to save cash and return more to shareholders after a decade of ramping up spending.
The firm increased shale production to around 210,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the middle of 2014 from close to nothing in 2010, but output levelled off in the second quarter.
This continues the story line I introduced a few days ago after arriving in the Bakken.

Active rigs:


8/26/201408/26/201308/26/201208/26/201108/26/2010
Active Rigs195185189200138

RBN Energy: more problems for Bakken producers -- simply not enough storage capacity for the tsunami of oil reaching the coasts.
Looking out over the next year and a half to 2016, Houston crude storage capacity looks to be lower than necessary to meet operational needs. With continuing increases in pipeline crude streams headed into the area in the next six months, we could see supply disruptions with consequences for price volatility. Probable victims of these disruptions would be producers looking to find a home at Houston refineries for their production. The solution is to build more storage but the market is not yet sending alarm signals to that effect.  Today we conclude our series on Houston storage capacity.
Saudi Aramco will invest $40 billion annually for the next decade. Reuters via Rigzone is reporting:
Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil producer, plans to invest $40 billion a year over the next decade to keep oil production capacity steady and double gas production.
State-owned Aramco sees more capital going into offshore projects and expects rising costs across the oil sector to underpin oil prices.
Oil prices fell to a 14-month low of $101.07 last week as global demand growth weakens, even as production ramp ups in several places create a glut of oil.
"To meet forecast demand growth and offset (global output)decline, our industry will need to add close to 40 million barrels per day of new capacity in the next two decades."
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Boycott Burger King

I heard on the news this morning, driving into downtown Williston, that a Congresswoman was calling for a boycott of Burger King.

By the way, the drive into downtown Williston was uneventful. At 7:00 a.m. there was no traffic on this side of town, the east site, the University side. At the first stop sign/intersection, I was the only vehicle. At the first (and only) traffic light intersection that I had to cross, again, no other vehicles. The sun is shining, no rain, but very, very cool. There was some talk in the coffee shop of an "early winter." Well, the words "early winter" were not used; rather, it was more like "winter is already here." They must be new to Williston. This, too, will pass, and the autumn will be absolutely gorgeous and then "Indian summer" is generally incredible. Is "Indian summer" an "okay" phrase?

I also heard part of eulogy for Michael Brown who was said to have been doing the Lord's work when he died. I also read that the White House sent more mourners to Brown's funeral than it sent to Thatcher's funeral. But that's very, very misleading and very, very unfair. It's not the numbers that count but the value of each piece -- think chess -- six pawns vs one knight, and two bishops.

The Wall Street Journal
News and Comment; Mostly Comment; Not Fair; Not Balanced

Earlier the administration was going to arm the rebels in Syria; now they are laying the groundworkr for airstrikes on the same rebels. Was Putin correct?

The Islamic State is going to seriously alter the demographics and once-mixed communities by dividing territory along ethnic and religious lines. Ferguson?

Buyers not clamoring for new homes

14-year Army veteran commits suicide on militarized Army base in Virginia yesterday.

Oh, this is good. While the Obama administration looks to de-militarize police forces around the country, "more Texas schools allow armed employees." Somehow visions of kitchen workers pakcing heat is not comforting. Brings more meaning to "eat your vegetables, or make my day."

Libya is back in the news.

IEA: Europe needs Russian natural gas. Okay. I thought we already knew that.

Congo reports first Ebola cases since 2008. I remember when such news caused alarm in the US. Not so much these days.

This makes no sense: slow going for natural-gas powered trucks. Amid the strongest market for commercial trucks in eight years (yes, thank you, Mr Bakken), US sales of natural-gas powered haulers are just inching ahead, slowed by premium prices, limited infrastructure, and more efficient diesels.

Court overturns Hawaii ban on GMO crops.

This will show them who's the boss: federal investigators expel both UPS company reps and pilot-union reps from a UPS cargo plane investigation.

Not getting any better for Statoil: sanctions on Russia will slow down approvals for some of Statoil's Rosneft joint ventures.

Fairchild cutting 15% of the workforce.

S&P closes at another record; futures are up again today. Shorts are getting crushed. Weren't there some stories recently on Soros betting big on a 10%, or even a 20%, pullback. May yet happen, but not this week.

Apple iPhone might save Best Buy.

 The Los Angeles Times

Headline story:  LAUSD suspends iPad program after bidding is called into question. Actually the whole idea of iPads in LA schools was crazy.

Liberian doctor who got experimental drug dies of Ebola.

Emmys 2014: "Breaking Bad," "Modern Family" dominate. "Fargo" got more than one Emmy, I believe. The most "worthy' segment, as it always is, year in, year out: "In Memoriam."
The 2014 Emmys honored the late Robin Williams Monday night, Aug. 25, with a touching tribute at the end of the in memoriam segment of the broadcast. Billy Crystal, Williams' longtime friend, spoke about the late actor. "The brilliance was astounding," Crystal said of Williams, who he performed with numerous times.
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Al Sharpton's Networks On The Ropes

The Wrap is reporting:
An individual with knowledge of the network's plans tell TheWrap a large portion are expected at the two cable channels
Some 550 buyouts are to be offered at Time Warner's Turner network this week, including a large number of those at CNN and HLN, which will lead to layoffs if they are not taken voluntarily, according to an individual with knowledge of the network's plans.
The buyouts will come across the Turner division, with a couple of hundred expected at CNN and HLN, the individual said.
One of the comments to this story, that I posted last night, posting again:
Here’s the problem with MSNBC and CNN: predictability. You already know what they’re going to say on any issue. So why watch?
I once knew a piano player in a fancy restaurant I used to go to who could play only one song really well: Moon River. You’d get it fast and slow and reggae and cha-cha and gospel and jazz and blues, but it was still Moon-effing-River. Now if you liked Moon River, you were golden. If you didn’t, go some place else. That’s MSNBC – a “one-note Johnny.”
On the other hand, Fox is unpredictable. Of course they might have a conservative slant, but they bring in far more libs to speak their piece than MSNBC does conservatives. And I like Megyn Kelly a lot. The woman has a mouth on her. You never know what she’ll say next. Ailes allows her to go off-script. You never see that at MSNBC or CNN. Stick to the copy!

New York Times Fails To Mention The 800-Pound Gorilla -- August 26, 2014

This story was on the local news last night, here in the Bakken, and now a reader sends me a link to the same story in The New York Times. It's a terrible, terrible story about all that North Dakota grain that is going to be dumped and lost because there is not enough rail to move the grain; too much oil has to be moved.

This is a great example of where the federal government and private enterprise could have worked together to prevent this problem in the first place. Remember: there are two ways to move oil economically out of the Bakken: pipeline and rail. Even now, the folks in Minnesota are creating all kinds of obstacles for Enbridge to get on with additional pipeline capacity.

Locally, I read stories of farmers tired of more and more pipeline being laid, and oil companies wanting to lay yet more pipeline.

But go to the linked story at The New York Times. Do a search for "800-pound gorilla." It's not there.

The story's lede:
FARGO, N.D. — The furious pace of energy exploration in North Dakota is creating a crisis for farmers whose grain shipments have been held up by a vast new movement of oil by rail, leading to millions of dollars in agricultural losses and slower production for breakfast cereal giants like General Mills.
The backlog is only going to get worse, farmers said, as they prepared this week for what is expected to be a record crop of wheat and soybeans.
“If we can’t get this stuff out soon, a lot of it is simply going to go on the ground and rot,” said Bill Hejl, who grows soybeans, wheat and sugar beets in the town of Casselton, about 20 miles west of here.
Although the energy boom in North Dakota has led to a 2.8 percent unemployment rate, the lowest in the nation, the downside has been harder times for farmers who have long been mainstays of the state’s economy. Agriculture was North Dakota’s No. 1 industry for decades, representing a quarter of its economic base, but recent statistics show that oil and gas have become the biggest contributors to the state’s gross domestic product.

Monday, August 25, 2014

OXY USA To Report A Nice Well Tuesday -- August 25, 2014; Ron Burgundy Comes In With An IP Of 293 BBls

See first comment: reader noticed that Halcon has new permits in Williams County. This goes back to earlier discussion when Halcon said they were going to focus on Fort Berthold wells.

Eighteen (18) producing wells were completed:
  • 25912, 1,162, Zavanna, Bills 5-8 3TFH, Crazy Man, t8/14; cum --
  • 26081, 2,304, BR, Big Bend 11-2MBH, Camel Butte, t7/14; cum --
  • 26082, 1,512, BR, Big Bend 11-2TFH, Camel Butte, t8/14; cum --
  • 26093, 2,170, XTO, Loomer 24X-34A, Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum --
  • 26125, 822, XTO, Loomer 24X-34E, Tobacco Garden, t8/14; cum -- 
  • 26126, 1,590, XTO, Rita 24X-34E, Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum --
  • 26127, 1,809, XTO, Rita 24X-34A, Tobacco Garden, t7/14; cum --
  • 26247, 468, SM Energy, Orlynne 2-3H, West Ambrose, t4/14; cum 24K 6/14;
  • 26869, 570, XTO, Cindy Blikre 41X-2D, Lindahl, t8/14; cum --
  • 26870, 888, XTO, Cindy Blikre 41X-2H, Lindahl, t8/14; cum --
  • 26871, 670, XTO, Cindy Blikre 41X-2C, Lindahl, t8/14; cum --
  • 26872, 542, XTO, Cindy Blikre 41X-2G, Lindahl, t7/14; cum --
  • 26910, 630, Triangle, Hagen 149-100-9-4-7H, Ellsworth, t7/14; cum --
  • 26911, 590, Triangle, Hagen 149-100-9-4-8H, Ellsworth, t7/14; cum --
  • 27037, 445, EOG, Parshall 40-1509H, Parshall, ICO spacing, t8/14; cum --
  • 27137, 1,872, BR, Denali 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner 4 sections, t7/14; cum --
  • 27334, 293, Emerald, Ron Burgundy 3-23-14H, Temple, t6/14; cum --
Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 26678, 667, OXY USA, Mildred Sadowsky 3-11-14H-142-97, Willmen, t2/14; cum 24K 6/14;
  • 26993, 1,119, CLR, Wallace 1-6H, Oliver, t7/14; cum --
  • 27186, 54, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H-1, Green Lake, t5/14; cum 4K 6/14;
  • 27560, conf, MRO, Friederich 34-24H, Chimney Butte, no production data,  
Green Lake: this looks like the first reported Bakken well in this 12-section field in Divide County, well north of Williston. 

Five (5) new permits --
Operators: HRC (3), Oasis, Solutions Energy
Fields: Tyrone (Williams), Black Slough (Burke), Lone Tree (Ward)
Comments: this is the first permit for Solutions Energy; Lone Tree field is in northwestern Ward County; there are about a dozen old Madison wells there; most are no longer producing; it appears the EUR for these Madison wells averages about150,000 bbls

Active rigs:


8/25/201408/25/201308/25/201208/25/201108/25/2010
Active Rigs194184189195138

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend have been posted; see sidebar at the right.

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Funny How Time Slips Away

While looking for a "new" Emmylou Harris song, I happened across this "old" one. I would not have recognized the song had I not taken a cross-country trip from north Texas to the Bakken some months ago. On the trip home, passing through my favorite cross-country city, Oklahoma City, I happened to catch a Lou Reed retrospective, which I touched on some time ago.

So, here's Emmylou Harris:

Pale Blue Eyes, Emmy Lou Harris and Sheryl Crow


... and here's Lou Reed ... who wrote the song ...

Pale Blue Eyes, Lou Reed

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I've run out of nickels to keep the internet line open tonight, so in a few minutes, I will be going off the air. If I remember, I will come back to this comment someone posted elsewhere:
Here’s the problem with MSNBC and CNN: predictability. You already know what they’re going to say on any issue. So why watch?
I once knew a piano player in a fancy restaurant I used to go to who could play only one song really well: Moon River. You’d get it fast and slow and reggae and cha-cha and gospel and jazz and blues, but it was still Moon-effing-River. Now if you liked Moon River, you were golden. If you didn’t, go some place else. That’s MSNBC – a “one-note Johnny.”
On the other hand, Fox is unpredictable. Of course they might have a conservative slant, but they bring in far more libs to speak their piece than MSNBC does conservatives. And I like Megyn Kelly a lot. The woman has a mouth on her. You never know what she’ll say next. Ailes allows her to go off-script. You never see that at MSNBC or CNN. Stick to the copy!
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By The Way

I am happy to report there were no demonstrations or looting in downtown Williston today. I attribute that to the fact, based on analyses from mainstream media "news" outlets, that there were no militarized police visible during the day in downtown Williston.  Lots of construction workers, but no militarized police. I haven't had the chance to check on Watford City; I'll watch the news tonight.

You know, now that I mention it, when stationed in Turkey, there were militarized policemen everywhere .. and no looting or demonstrations. No rubber bullets either. Real ammo.

Power Plant Costs -- For The Archives -- August 25, 2014; Cost Of Renewable Energy -- Staggering

From an earlier post, March 20, 2014:
  • Solar: $3 million / MW
  • Wind: $2.5 million / MW
  • Natural gas: $865,000 / MW
Updates

September 3, 2014: Compare these numbers for the Emmons County (North Dakota) natural gas power plant proposal.

Original Post

A reader sent me a link to a story of Exelon buying a natural gas power plant in Boston; Houston Biz Journal is reporting:
Houston-based Calpine Corp. is buying a natural-gas fired power plant in Massachusetts from Chicago-based Exelon Corp. for $530 million to boost its presence in that area.
The deal — which translates to $655 per kilowatt — is expected to close in the fourth quarter and will increase Calpine’s footprint in the New England competitive wholesale power market.
The plant, Fore River Generating Station, was built in 2003 and is 12 miles southeast of Boston.  
According to wiki: the plant has a rated capacity of 726 megawatts. Exelon says the same thing: 726 megawatts.

$530,000,000 / 726 = $730,000 / MW. Looks like Calpine got a pretty good deal.

Now, let's see if the solar cost is still accurate. In another story sent, the link sent by the same reader, is reporting that Verizon is adding more solar power:
Verizon announced today that it will invest nearly $40 million to expand the on-site green energy program that it launched in 2013. This year, Verizon will install 10.2 megawatts of new solar power systems at eight Verizon network facilities in five states – California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. This investment nearly doubles the amount of renewable power generated by solar energy systems installed at six Verizon facilities last year.
To date, Verizon has invested nearly $140 million in on-site green energy. With the 2014 solar investment announced today, Verizon is on target to deploy upward of 25 megawatts of green energy upon completion of the new solar projects.
$40,000,000 / 10.2 megawatts = $3.9 million / MW. Of course, there may be other offsets that are not being reported, but almost $4 million / MW of solar power (when the sun is shining) seems a tad expensive (compared to $750,000 / MW of natural gas), but is in line with earlier figures. As long as Verizon subscribers don't mind paying for this, seems fair. Whatever makes folks feel good. China just brought another huge coal-plant on line today. And they will do so again, tomorrow. And the next day.
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Other Miscellaneous Energy News

This will help with the tsunami of oil, natural gas, condensate tsunami hitting the gulf coast. Houston Biz Journal is reporting:
Houston-based LyondellBasell Industries will build a new chemical plant in southeastern Texas that may cost more than $1 billion.
The rapidly growing chemical company plans to produce 900 million pounds of propylene oxide, or PO, and 2 billion pounds of tertiary butyl alcohol, or TBA, and its derivatives annually at the plant.
The specifics do not interest me; the reason for posting the story -- further evidence of the widening gap between US and EU energy industry.

Look at the size of that investment: another $1 billion. 

Clearing Out The E-Mail, August 25, 2014

Two items readers have sent me.

First, oil activity along the North Dakota - Saskatchewan state/province line, as reported by the Prairie Post:
With $48.4 million in revenue raised at Saskatchewan’s August sale of petroleum and natural gas rights, the 2014 calendar year total for land sales is now $158 million, already surpassing land sale revenue totals for both the 2012 and 2013 calendar years with two sales remaining.
The average price per hectare received for the sale was $1,916/hectare, the third highest on record. The April 2008 sale holds the title for highest average price per hectare for a single sale at $2,725/hectare, followed closely by the February 2008 sale at $2,495/hectare.
The Bakken and Shauanvon light-oil plays in southern Saskatchewan are both prone to spectacular single-parcel results that we experienced once again in this sale,” Economy Minister Bill Boyd said.
“However, we’re equally pleased about land acquisitions in the heavy oil-prone areas of the province that are consistent in sale-after-sale, year-after-year. “By any measure, the volume of heavy oil in the province, estimated at 20 billion barrels of heavy oil in place, is impressive, but recovering this oil is a complex and capital-intensive process.
The August sale saw the Weyburn-Estevan area receive the most bids with sales of $43 million. The Lloydminster area was next at $2.1 million, followed by the Swift Current area at $1.8 million and the Kindersley-Kerrobert area at $1.5 million. The highest price paid for a single parcel was $17.1 million. Standard Land Company Inc. acquired the 2,201-hectare exploration licence east of Estevan. The highest price on a per-hectare basis was $10,136. Plunkett Resources Ltd. bid $634,520 for a 62.6-hectare lease southeast of Estevan.
One hectare = about 2.5 acres. I guess that $10,000/hectare works out to about $4,000/acre.

The second item was a pdf: the changing face of world oil markets, Department of Economics, UC-San Diego, July 20, 2014. Five areas of discussion:
  • world oil demand is now driven by emerging economies -- key point -- "China alone accounted for 57% of the global increase in consuption since 2005
  • growth in production since 2005 has come from lower-quality hydrocarbons -- key point -- "oil" is gtting harder and harder to find; all that "boe" is often irrelevant if it's not "oil"
  • stagnating world production of crude oil meant significantly higher prices -- key point -- "if one looks only at field production of crude oil, the picture becomes quite stark. Field production increased worldwide by only 2.3 million bopd between 2005 and 2013. That compares with a predicted increase of 8.7 million bopd from extrapolating the pre-2005 trends in consumption growth for developed and emerging economies, and that's without even taking account of the dramatic acceleration in demand from the emerging economies. ... The actual increase in field production of crude oil was only 3.1%, consistent with a shortfall of 12 million bopd."
  • geoopolitical disturbances held back growth in oil production -- really? Libya, Syria, Iran, Nigeria
  • geological limitations exacerbate world oil production -- key point -- "the overall picture is that the Middle East countries have been devoting ever increasing resources to upstream development and yet have very little additional oil production to show for it." I've talked about that often and fits my world-view.