Monday, January 20, 2014

A Couple Of Data Points Coming Out Of China

CNOOC estimates oil output growth below target for third year:
Top Chinese offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC Ltd is aiming for an up to 4.3 percent output increase this year, excluding contributions from acquisition Nexen, well below its average annual growth target for 2011-2015 for a third year.
CNOOC has vowed it will still meet the annual growth target of 6-10 percent for the five years through 2015, increasing its capital spending budget by as much as a third from last year to almost $20 billion and aiming to get 20 projects into construction this year while launching up to 10 more.
The 2014 growth rate target missed the expectations of some research houses, including Barclays, which had been looking for a 6 percent increase for this year. CNOOC, once an investor darling for its high-growth profile, has been struggling to boost its output over the past few years as domestic fields age.
Meanwhile, Chinese demand for oil has decreased, according to Reuters via Rigzone:
China's oil consumption in 2013 posted the slowest rise in more than two decades, data showed on Monday, as softer economic growth sliced into demand for transportation and industrial fuels such as diesel.
While a slowdown in oil consumption by the world's second-largest user was expected, the sluggish rise could pressure global oil prices at a time OPEC member Iran's nuclear deal with world powers is raising the possibility of the Middle Eastern nation being allowed to pump and export more oil.
China's energy appetite has driven global oil demand growth for the past decade as usage slows in industrialized nations. Its slowing demand last year capped prices that would have otherwise soared on the plunge in exports from Iran, prolonged outages in Libya and disruptions in Sudan.
China's implied oil demand rose 1.6 percent in 2013, or 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the year, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary government data. Reuters started calculating implied oil demand from 2005.
But data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that apparent oil demand has not grown as slowly since at least 1992, although its calculation methods may differ.

This Is What The Folks At Starbucks Will Be Talking About Tomorrow

The op-ed in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal:
  • insurers already warning on losses
  • government ups the ante on bail-out (no Congressional approval)
Predicted.

For Investors Only: Earnings This Week

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you might have read here. 

    Monday, March 3:

    Tuesday, March 4:
      Wednesday, March 5:
          Thursday, Feb 27:
          • NOG, 27 cents, after market close
          • KOG, 18 cents, after market closes
          • LINE, 27 cents, before market opens
          • SD, 0, after market closes
          • SRE, 98 cents; 9:00 ET
          • WEN, 8 cents, no time supplied
            Friday, Feb 28:
            • Isis, -19 cents, before market opens
            ********************************

            MHR: beats by 7 cents; expected loss of 21 cents; loss of 14 cents; great report

            EOG: beats by 6 cents; announces stock split. 

            DNR misses by 4 cents. 

            Wal-Mart misses "badly."

            ARII has a good quarter; manufactures more oil tank cars; leases more; lease rate higher.

            Fourth quarter diluted EPS from continuing operations were $0.52 on a non-GAAP basis compared with $0.47 for the fourth quarter of 2012. Shares surge 8%.

            Oasis with an incredible quarter; an incredible year.

            Edward Lifesciences beats by 9 cents.

            MDU: 48 cents vs forecast 41 cents; versus 40 cents 4Q12; huge year for MDU

            Anadarko (91 cents): wide 4Q13 loss of $770 million.

            CVX misses by 3 cents, $2.57.

            COP beats by 8 cents.

            OXY beats by 4 cents; $1.72; an after-tax gain from sale of assets.

            XOM misses by one penny; $1.91/share. Revenues fall 3.3%.

            Noble Corp increases dividend by 50%.

            PSX beats by 30 cents.

            Hess profit surges on asset sales, but production sags. Beats by 85 cents.

            Dow Chemical beats by 22 cents.

            Marathon Petroleum beats by 95 cents; misses on revs.

            Boeing beats by 31 cents. Boeing core profit up 29%. The market is down triple digits (about 110 points) and the pundits blame today's earnings. Hogwash. The pullback has nothing to do with earnings. The Fed is poised to taper another $10 billion. And durable goods dropped 4.3%. 

            Valero beats by 31 cents; revenues fell 0.8% y/y.

            T beats by 3 cents; revenues up almost 2%; raises guidance; transcript; this is not a "bad" report; it might be as good as it gets for ATT.

            Ford beats by 3 cents; reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY14 guidance.

            Apple reported virtually flat earnings [but not a loss] as intensified competition for mobile devices offset growing iPhone and iPad sales.
            The Cupertino, Calif., technology giant is coming off its first decline in annual profit in more than a decade amid growing competition in the smartphone and tablet markets.
            Apple also is facing questions about whether it can repeat its innovative success with a new product category—as it did with the iPhone in 2007 and iPad in 2010.
            For the first quarter, Apple reported earnings of $13.1 billion, or $14.50 a share, on sales of $57.6 billion. A year ago, Apple reported first-quarter earnings of $13.08 billion, or $13.81 a share, on sales of $54.51 billion.
            Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of $14.07 a share on sales of $57.46 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Apple in October had projected revenue between $55 billion and $58 billion. For its flagship products, Apple said it sold 51 million iPhones in the first quarter, up from 47.8 million units in the year-ago period, while iPad sales increased to 26 million units from 22.9 million units.
            The increase in iPhone and iPad sales comes as the company rolled out two new versions of its iPhone, the first time it launched more than one new model of its smartphone at the same time. It also refreshed its iPad lineup within a thinner, lighter model and a smaller version with a sharper display. Analysts, in general, were expecting sales of about 55 million iPhones and about 25 million iPads.
            Plum Creek Lumber misses by a nickle; the company announced fourth quarter earnings of $40 million, or $0.24 per share, on revenues of $331 million. Earnings for the fourth quarter of 2012 were $79 million, or $0.49 per share, on revenues of $354 million.

            Caterpillar surges 7% premarket on Q4 beat; earnings of $1.54 per share, $0.26 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.28; revenues fell 10.4% year/year to $14.4 bln vs the $13.61 bln consensus.  better than feared FY14 guidance & new $10 bln stock buyback: CAT is surging in premkt after beating Q4 ests; co also guided FY14 'better than feared' and announced a new $10 bln stock repurchase program.

            Microsoft beats by $0.10, beats on revs: Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.68; revenues rose 14.3% year/year to $24.52 bln vs the $23.67 bln consensus.

            Starbucks beats by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; guides Q3 (Jun) EPS below consensus; guides FY14 EPS in-line: Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.71 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.69; revenues rose 11.8% year/year to $4.24 bln vs the $4.29 bln consensus. Transcript here.

            McDonald's beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.40 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.39; revenues rose 2.0% year/year to $7.09 bln vs the $7.11 bln consensus. 

            Union Pacific beats by $0.06, beats on revs : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.55 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $2.49; revenues rose 7.2% year/year to $5.63 bln vs the $5.57 bln consensus.

            Netflix beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus:Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.79 per share, $0.15 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.64; revenues rose 24.3% year/year to $1.18 bln vs the $1.17 bln consensus. 

            Xilinx, Inc. beats by $0.07; announced third quarter fiscal 2014 sales of $587 million, down 2% from the prior quarter and up 15% from the same quarter of the prior fiscal year.  Third quarter fiscal 2014 net income was $176 million or $0.61 per diluted share; including the reversal of a litigation reserve with a net impact of $19 million, or $0.06 per diluted share.

            Halliburton beats by $0.04, beats on revs: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.93 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.89; revenues rose 4.8% year/year to $7.64 bln vs the $7.56 bln consensus; adjusted operating income was up 2% sequentially, driven by record revenue in our Middle East/Asia and Europe/Africa/CIS regions.

            Baker Hughes beats by $0.01, beats on revs: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.61; revenues rose 10.0% year/year to $5.86 bln vs the $5.66 bln consensus. Q4 results excludes after-tax severance charges of $29 mln ($0.06 per diluted share), but includes after-tax losses of $79 mln ($0.18 per diluted share) in Iraq. 

            Delta Air Lines beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.64; revenues rose 5.6% year/year to $9.09 bln vs the $9.07 bln consensus.

            Verizon beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.66 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.62; revenues rose 3.4% year/year to $31.07 bln vs the $31.04 bln consensus.

            Target CEO pulled the plug on credit-card anti-theft technology over a decade ago. One more reason to cancel my Target credit card.

            Verizon buying an Intel internet TV service is very interesting.  Huge earnings report for Verizon.

            Global Warming 2013 - 2014; This Could Be The Biggest Winter Storm Since January, 2011; Sweden Sets "Cold" Record; Mainstream Media Reports On US Propane Shortage

            Finally, it's being reported by the mainstream media: the US propane shortage, as reported by USA Today Regular readers of the blog have known about the impending (and now existing) propane shortage since early 2012. From USA Today:
            As meteorologists on Monday added up to 10 inches of snow to their frigid forecasts for the Northeast and Midwest this week, the regions are struggling with a lack of the essential resources residents need to keep warm.

            Sand used to keep roads safe during snowstorms and ice buildup is running low in some states, as are the budgets to buy the sand and deploy trucks and plows. Propane stocks in many states have also hit disconcerting lows since the winter started with meager allowances and back-to-back cold spells have increased the energy dilemma for millions.
            In anticipation of the cold and snow, Ohio Gov. John Kasich declared an energy emergency focused on expediting propane GAS shipments in order to mitigate tight supplies.
            More than 14 million families across the U.S. use propane to fuel their furnaces, according to the Propane Education & Research Council.
            Kasich followed the lead of officials in 17 other U.S. states — mostly in the Midwest and North — who declared energy emergencies and loosened rules for propane transportation from other states, most of which are effective until the end of January.
            Interestingly, unless I missed it, nothing was said about the reason for the shortage of propane.

            New York state continues to ban fracking.

            *******************************

            The Drudge Report headlines and links if worthwhile:
            The village of Karesuando, right at the very northern tip of Sweden, clocked the epic cold temperature during Sunday reports the Swedish weather agency SMHI. 
            "It is also a seasonal record," said SMHI meteorologist Lars Unnerstad to the TT news agency. The recorded temperature of -41.2 was a record for that region which is right on the Finnish border.
            Unnerstad added that he expected more cold records to break during the next 24 hours due to the high pressure, lack of wind and the continuing clear weather.
            Along the leading edge of the invading polar blast, accumulating snow will spread from the Midwest to the East Coast on Tuesday.
            The snow will come courtesy of yet another Alberta Clipper set to drop through the Dakotas and Ohio Valley on Monday through Monday night with accumulations on the order of a coating to 2 inches.
            The storm could rival the storm from early December in parts of southeastern Pennsylvania and Delaware.
            According to Winter Weather Expert Brian Wimer, "For Washington, D.C., this could be the biggest storm since Jan. 26, 2011, when about 5 inches of snow fell."

            EOG Reports Another Huge Well; OXY Reports A Nice Well

            Tuesday, January 21, 2014
            • 22110, 1,012, Petro-Hunt, Frderickson 160-94-33D-28-5H, North Tioga, t10/13; cum 14K 11/13;
            • 23310, 878, WPX, Good Bird 36-25HZ, Moccasin Creek, t101/13; cum 24K 11/13;
            • 24850, 1,619, QEP, MHA 6-06-07H-147-92, Heart Butte, t11/13; cum 9K 11/13;
            • 25475, drl, CLR, Josephine 2-17H1, Sauk, no production data,
            • 25531, drl, SM Energy, Meadow Valley 3-1H, West Ambrose, producing,
            • 25678, drl, BR, Washburn 41-36TFH,  Charlson, no production data,
            Monday, January 20, 2014
            • 25485, 1,635, MRO, Kari 11-13TFH, Big Bend, t11/13; cum 12K 11/13;
            • 25751, 56, Legacy, Legacy Et Al Schillander 5-18 2H, Red Rock, a Spearfish well; t9/13; cum 10K 11/13;
            Sunday, January 19, 2014
            • 22687, drl, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-1, Alkali Creek, no production data,
            • 22918, 784, OXY USA, Matthew Schmidt 3-35-2H-144-97, Cabernet, t7/13; cum 53K 11/13;
            • 22926, 885, OXY USA, Brew 3-13-12H-143-96, Murphy Creek, t7/13; cum 61K 11/13;
            • 23309, 1,140, WPX, Good Bird 36-25HD, Moccasin Creek, t10/13; cum 26K 11/13;
            • 24124, drl, Gadeco, Alexander 26-35-3H, Epping, no production data,
            • 24694, 129, OXY USA, Henry Kovash 2-6-7H-142-95,  Manning, no production data,
            • 25660, 1,896, Oasis, Safely USA 5-8H, Foreman Butte, t10/13; cum 24K 11/13;
            Saturday, January 18, 2014
            • 22917, 470, OXY USA, Matthew Schmidt 2-35-2H-144-97, Cabernet, t7/13; cum 50K 11/13;
            • 23269, 1,607, EOG, Bear Den 24-1621H, Spotted Horn, t8/13; cum 96K 11/13;
            • 24642, 42 (no typo), Murex, Jennifer Abigail 16-21H, t9/13; cum 29K 11/13;
            ******************************
            23269, see above, EOG, Bear Den 24-1621H, Spotted Horn:

            DateOil RunsMCF Sold
            11-2013221668116
            10-20131865219893
            9-2013210240
            8-20133319913992
            7-20130318