Wednesday, October 9, 2013

The Energy Revolution -- It Is Just Beginning -- Issue 8,545

I'm in an incredibly good mood. It's hard to believe all the stories that were posted in the past 48 hours that suggest the US energy revolution is gaining traction. I've posted as many as I have had time for.

But now another one

Reuters, via Rigzone is reporting:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday slightly raised its estimate for domestic natural gas production in 2013, expecting output this year to be up about 1.2 percent from 2012's record high levels.
In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected marketed natural gas production in 2013 to rise by 0.82 billion cubic feet per day to 70.00 bcf per day, up fractionally from its September outlook of 69.91 bcf daily.
If the forecast is realized, it would be the third straight year of record production.
And two more story lines in the following:
Natural gas pipeline imports, primarily from Canada which have fallen over the last five years, are projected to slip slightly in 2013 to just over 8 bcf per day, then remain near that level in 2014.
Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to remain at minimal levels of around 0.4 bcf per day in both 2013 and 2014, EIA said.
EIA also slightly raised its estimate for 2013 consumption, expecting usage to be up by 0.32 bcfd, or 0.3 percent, from 2012 to 70.00 bcf daily.
The agency expects colder winter temperatures to boost gas used for residential and commercial space heating. But the EIA noted that higher gas prices this year have contributed to declines in gas used to generate electricity.
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A Note To The Grandparents

 Our younger granddaughter is enjoying soccer practice right now. I am under the stars; it's an incredibly nice autumn evening here in north Texas. A 4-day old crescent moon is up; the very few clouds to the west are wispy, and are a beautiful, beautiful pink-red hue, which, according to the old sailors' ditty means it should be nice weather tomorrow.

And there "she" is -- the evening star (Venus)! She is at about the 5:30 position in relation to the moon. At the moment, those are the only two lights in the heavens: the moon and Venus.

Last night we also marveled at the evening star. Then it was just to the "left" of the 3-day old crescent moon, at about the 9 o'clock position.

Of course Venue is "outside" the crescent. I asked the granddaughters (age 7 and 10) if the planet could ever be inside the crescent. It took a bit of explaining but for a moment they seemed to understand why that could not happen, or if it did, what it meant. As noted, I think they understood the explanation last night but I'm not sure if they retained it.

When I was their age I was fascinated by the stars, red dwarfs and blue giants, but somewhere along the way, I was unable to find time to study astronomy, or the "heavens" seemed to lose some of its "magic" for me.

Sometime ago I got back into my "physics" phase, reading about Los Alamos, the Manhattan project, the biography of Robert Oppenheimer. It started with The Age of Entanglement by Louisa Gilder. For several months now, I've been in that phase -- physics.

I happened to come across a very interesting book about the uniqueness of earth, life on earth, and the seeming remarkable location of the earth in the galaxy, for observing, measuring, and studying the universe. Copyright 2004, the authors are Guillermo Gonzalez and Jay W. Richards. The former is an assistant research professor in astronomy; the latter has a Ph D with honors in philosophy and theology from Princeton Theological Seminary.

The book is titled The Privileged Planet. From the jacket: "This thoughtful, delightfully contrarian book will rile up those who believe the "Copernican principle" is an essential philosophical component of modern science. Is our universe designedly congenial to intelligent, observing life? Passionate advocates of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) will find much to ponder in this carefully documented analysis."

The book mentions Carl Sagan and disposes of him quickly. The authors do not mention Richard Dawkins and mention God only once or twice (perhaps more, I forget, but one gets the point).

This is the kind of book one reads through one time, and then goes back to re-read the chapters of most interest, before returning to read the book from start to finish at least one more time. It is a challenging book, only because the authors say so much. But it not difficult to read, or difficult to understand.

I had not heard of this particular book until I happened to come across the book at Barnes and Noble among the "newer" arrivals. Due to the theme of the book I can understand why it did not receive more critical acclaim. It is certainly not politically correct in the 21st century.

The Energy Revolution -- It Is Just Beginning -- Issue 8,544 -- San Antonio Could Become The Next Energy Hub

I'm in an incredibly good mood. It's hard to believe all the stories that were posted in the past 48 hours that suggest the US energy revolution is gaining traction. I've posted as many as I have had time for.

But now another one. Rigzone is reporting:
Houston gets most of the ink, but San Antonio, Texas – named number 4 of the next “boom towns” in the nation by Forbes magazine two years ago – is quietly becoming an energy city in its own right. And while some of the energy sector drivers of commerce might have an expiration date, others seem likely to stick around for the long haul.
The Eagle Ford shale is a major part of San Antonio’s boom. Up to 540,000 barrels of oil are produced daily in Eagle Ford, Karr Ingham, a petroleum economist for the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers said in a July presentation. Demand for workers in the giant shale formation is providing a boost to the San Antonio economy in the form of record-breaking tax revenues, while lining the pockets of former college students and other marketable workers in a variety of fields who are lured to the Eagle Ford by robust salaries.
The boom is manifesting itself in various ways. Some former school bus drivers in the Alamo City, for example, have found lucrative jobs driving commercial vehicles in the shale formation, filling a shortage of qualified drivers. These drivers are hardly alone; many other people needing work in San Antonio have found well-paying jobs filling various positions working in the Eagle Ford Shale formation, according to the San Antonio Express-News.

The Energy Revolution -- It Is Just Beginning -- Issue 8,543

I'm in an incredibly good mood. It's hard to believe all the stories that were posted in the past 48 hours that suggest the US energy revolution is gaining traction. I've posted as many as I have had time for.

But now another one:
A Koch Energy Services LLC unit will buy a natural gas-fired power plant in Texas, the company said on Tuesday, confirming that the purchase of the 1,055-megawatt Odessa Power plant from an affiliate of Energy Capital Partners LLC will be the Koch unit's first foray into the power generation market.
Koch Energy Services itself is a unit of Koch Industries Inc one of the largest privately held companies in the United States. The plant is near the Permian Basin of West Texas where energy companies tapping into tight deposits of oil and gas have a growing and voracious appetite for electricity.
There are several story lines in this short article:
  • fossil fuel, not renewable energy
  • Permian Basin
  • first foray
  • voracious appetite for electricity
  • tight deposits
Any one of those "phrases" could provide the basis for another post.

Wednesday, Day 9 Of The Government Shutdown; Wars Never Go As Planned; Megyn Beats Piers And Rachel -- Combined

As we enter day 9 of the government shutdown, things are starting to become a big clearer on the grand strategy that is beginning to play out. More on that later, perhaps, over the weekend.

Regular readers of the blog will recognize this name: Tallgrass Energy Partners. The partnership will more than double its distribution, from 14 cents to almost 30 cents. Futures are slightly higher on news that "Yellen is the one."

Coolest story of the day: Peter Higgs shares Nobel prize in physics.
Peter Higgs and François Englert shared the Nobel Prize in physics for independently proposing a particle, now known as the Higgs boson, that confers mass to all other particles and whose recent discovery stands as one of the seminal moments of modern science.
Nearly a half-century after predicting the existence of the particle, the pair's work was confirmed last year, in a nail-biting experiment undertaken at the atom-smashing machine built by the European particle physics laboratory at CERN in Switzerland. That July day, in a packed hall in Geneva, Drs. Higgs and Englert met for the first time.
After further analysis, physicists at the Geneva laboratory said earlier this year they are confident that the particle they had discovered was in fact the one Mr. Higgs and his colleagues had predicted.
Meanwhile, in the Bakken:

Active rigs: 184 (nice)

RBN Energy:  Wow, talk about a timely post from RBN Energy today. The lead story in Section B of The WSJ today: US refiners export more fuel than ever.
U.S. refiners are selling more fuel abroad than ever before, effectively exporting the American energy boom to the four corners of the world.
As crude production soars in places like the Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas, U.S. refiners along the Gulf Coast are increasingly using local oil, which is less expensive than the North Sea crude that European refiners use. That often means diesel and other fuels made in the U.S. are a bargain abroad even after adding the shipping costs.
While federal law bars overseas shipments of most U.S.-produced oil, refiners can export petroleum products created from that crude, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
In July, U.S. refiners shipped a record 3.8 million barrels of products a day to places as far flung as Africa and the Middle East, according to the latest monthly data from the Energy Information Administration. That volume is nearly 65% above the 2010 export level, when the U.S. oil boom was still in its infancy.
And then this from RBN Energy:  This is the third in a series on the fuel oil industry in Houston. This sounds like a niche industry, and seems a bit unrelated to the Bakken, but it doesn't take many dots to connect what is going on. To put some of the numbers in the linked article in perspective, remember that Cushing has about 35 million bbls of storage capacity, and that the southern leg of the Keystone XL, due to open next month, will flow 5 million bbls/week.
The BOSTCO Terminal started operations this week on the Houston Ship Channel. By early next year (2014) the terminal will have 6 MMBbl of storage capacity. This $500 Million investment by two midstream companies is designed to meet the expanding needs of fuel oil blenders at the Gulf Coast. Before the first phase could be completed, 900 MBbl of additional refined product storage planned for phase two, was snapped up by Morgan Stanley for distillate fuels. Today we describe the terminal facilities and ownership structure
This is the third installment in our series covering fuel oil infrastructure on the Gulf Coast.
See also: KinderMorgan expands footprint in the Eagle Ford.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site, and I constantly remind folks not to make any investment decisions based on what they read here, or what they think they may have read here, but it is incredibly clear what is happening in the US. The center of gravity for global energy has moved to the US. Saudi and Russia have oil and natural gas, but the US now outproduces both Saudi Arabia and Russia, but equally important is the entrepreneurial spirit; free market capitalism; banking resources; free flow of capital; in America.

The Wall Street Journal

This story will be missed by both folks but it is another data point when trying to sort out the president's Islamic upbringing. When the Muslim Brotherhood had taken control of Egypt, US aid continued to flow to Egypt. Now that the Muslim Brotherhood has been declared illegal by the new government in Egypt, the US will stop financial aid to Egypt.

"Revived" A123 is shifting its focus to hybrids.
Advanced battery maker A123 Systems LLC is shifting its focus to small, hybrid-cars and away from fully-electric vehicles in a reflection of the slowly developing market for electric vehicles, the company's new chief executive said on Tuesday.
The company expects electric vehicles won't now become a major part of global auto demand for many years. However, new batteries for start-stop systems and hybrids is forecast to grow quickly as auto makers seek inexpensive ways to improve fuel economy in gasoline-powered cars, said Chief Executive Jason Forcier.
A123 was the first company to open a plant in the U.S. to build batteries for electric vehicles under a government-back program to seed the U.S. electric-car industry. A123's automotive and electric grid storage businesses were purchased by China's Wanxiang Automotive Group from bankruptcy court in January for $256.6 million.
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I don't particularly like to post these stories: they are simply Polaroid snaps that are lost by the end of the day, but sometimes one finds something worthy for the family album: natural-gas futures rise again.
Natural-gas futures climbed for a third session in a row Tuesday amid forecasts for temperatures to turn colder in key markets, potentially increasing demand for the heating fuel.
Natural-gas futures rose 2.4%, or 8.7 cents, to $3.716 per million British thermal units, the highest close since Sept. 17. Prices have climbed 6.2% on the New York Mercantile Exchange since Thursday's settlement.
Temperatures could drop to below-average levels later in October, particularly in regions of the U.S. that are the biggest consumers of natural gas, according to some weather forecasters.
Demand for natural gas usually increases in cold weather, as furnaces burn the fuel to heat buildings. But mild weather in the densely populated Northeast and Midwest regions have reduced demand for gas in recent weeks, which allowed stockpiles of the fuel to build up and kept futures prices under pressure.
There are several stories lines here, of course. 


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There were so many other stories in today's Journal I would like to post/link, but I simply don't have enough time. There are some huge things going on right now -- I think the government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate are bigger stories than folks realize. 

One of the reasons military leaders don't want to go to war is because wars seldom go as planned. Unintended consequences become the norm. 

The government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate is as close to war as the government gets (even more so than an impeachment, which is personal, and a battle, not a war). No one knows where the current war would lead once it started, but its outcome is starting to become clearer. 

I did not post this story from The Journal up above, but the headline -- well, actually two stories. Put these two stories into your databank; the headlines tell me exactly how this could play out:
  • heard on the street: markets shouldn't rely on the notion that the president can pull a rabbit out of the debt-ceiling hat
  • ome lenders are talking with U.K. regulators and drawing up internal plans on how they would cope if the U.S. fails to increase its borrowing limit
If one thinks President Obama is winning in the left-leaning mainstream media, search out the CNN story reporting how Ms Sebelius was "shredded" by John Steward on The Daily Show. 

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Later, 8:03 a.m. same day: shortly after posting the above, I noted that the Drudge Report linked an NPR story that buried the fact that the president's approval rating has dropped to 37%. Of course, the NPR folks led with the story that "most" Americans are blaming the GOP and the Tea Party. "Most" Americans can blame the GOP and the Tea Party all they want, but neither the GOP nor the Tea Party are running for anything. Individuals run for office, not the GOP and not the Tea Party. But a 37% approval rating for a Nobel-winning president is shocking, especially considering this is a man-made crisis that could have been avoided.

Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK continued to negotiate with the Russians.

Meanwhile,
President Obama held an off-the-record meeting with five conservative journalists on Tuesday afternoon.
Present at the meeting were Charles Krauthammer, the Washington Post columnist and Fox News contributor; Paul Gigot, the Wall Street Journal editorial page editor; Robert Costa, the National Review's Washington editor; syndicated columnist Kathleen Parker; and Washington Examiner columnist Byron York, according to a source with knowledge of the meeting.
And this was what got the president's attention:
Fox News Channel’s “The Kelly File” handily beat rivals in total viewers, an auspicious start for the network’s first new primetime program in more than a decade, as well as its host, Megyn Kelly.
According to early Nielsen totals, Fox News Channel’s “The Kelly File” lured nearly 2.1 million viewers between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m,. Monday evening, compared with 997,466 for MSNBC’s “Rachel Maddow Show” and 529,946 for CNN’s “Piers Morgan Tonight.” The figures could change slightly.
And before I get any comments about the demographics, remember: the demographics advertisers want and the demographics pols want are mutually exclusive. [Update: 2nd night: Megyn added to her lead; this time she beat everyone in every demographic. She beat Piers and Rachel combined:
Has Fox News Channel found the new queen of primetime cable news? In her second night on Fox News’ new primetime lineup, Megyn Kelly clocked the highest adults 25-54 rating across all of cable news, building on her Bill O’Reilly lead-in. Kelly averaged 623,000 demo viewers and 2.8 million viewers overall — and did it without Sen. Ted Cruz, her premiere-night big “get.” Compared to her maiden voyage in primetime the previous night Kelly’s show jumped 116% in the demo and 34% in overall audience. In so doing, she beat CNN’s Piers Morgan and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow combined — in both metrics. Morgan logged 590,000 viewers, 169,000 of them in the demo; Maddow logged 1.1 million viewers, 291,000 in the demo.]

Connecting The Dots

This is a "cut and paste" from a post that I am working on. But this is quite incredible.

RBN Energy:  Wow, talk about a timely post from RBN Energy today. The lead story in Section B of The WSJ today: US refiners export more fuel than ever.
U.S. refiners are selling more fuel abroad than ever before, effectively exporting the American energy boom to the four corners of the world.
As crude production soars in places like the Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas, U.S. refiners along the Gulf Coast are increasingly using local oil, which is less expensive than the North Sea crude that European refiners use. That often means diesel and other fuels made in the U.S. are a bargain abroad even after adding the shipping costs.
While federal law bars overseas shipments of most U.S.-produced oil, refiners can export petroleum products created from that crude, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
In July, U.S. refiners shipped a record 3.8 million barrels of products a day to places as far flung as Africa and the Middle East, according to the latest monthly data from the Energy Information Administration. That volume is nearly 65% above the 2010 export level, when the U.S. oil boom was still in its infancy.
And then this from RBN Energy:  This is the third in a series on the fuel oil industry in Houston. This sounds like a niche industry, and seems a bit unrelated to the Bakken, but it doesn't take many dots to connect what is going on. To put some of the numbers in the linked article in perspective, remember that Cushing has about 35 million bbls of storage capacity, and that the southern leg of the Keystone XL, due to open next month, will flow 5 million bbls/week.
The BOSTCO Terminal started operations this week on the Houston Ship Channel. By early next year (2014) the terminal will have 6 MMBbl of storage capacity. This $500 Million investment by two midstream companies is designed to meet the expanding needs of fuel oil blenders at the Gulf Coast. Before the first phase could be completed, 900 MBbl of additional refined product storage planned for phase two, was snapped up by Morgan Stanley for distillate fuels. Today we describe the terminal facilities and ownership structure
This is the third installment in our series covering fuel oil infrastructure on the Gulf Coast.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site, and I constantly remind folks not to make any investment decisions based on what they read here, or what they think they may have read here, but it is incredibly clear what is happening in the US. The center of gravity for global energy has moved to the US. Saudi and Russia have oil and natural gas, but the US now outproduces both Saudi Arabia and Russia, but equally important is the entrepreneurial spirit; free market capitalism; banking resources; free flow of capital; in America.