Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Add This Story To All The Earlier iPhone Stories -- Running Out Of Inventory -- Sprint

Link here to CNBC:
Dan Hesse tells Cramer that business is so brisk, he can barely keep up.
It appears people want the new iPhone and they want it on Sprint. "We're beginning to run out of inventory," Hesse admitted to Cramer during an appearance on Mad Money, "especially the 5S."
Hesse's comments suggest that buyers of the new iPhone, which comes in multiple colors, are drawn to particular hues. "We are out of a number of them already," he added. 
The pricing is very, very good. See the link.

Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; But Look At All The Producing Wells That Are Now Reported As Completed; Huge List With Some Outstanding Wells; Newfield Has A Great Well In Siverston Field; OXY USA Reports A Nice IP

Active rigs: 187 (steady)

Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: KOG (2), American Eagle (2), Hess, Corinthian
  • Fields: Big Stone (Williams), Colgan (Divide), Timber Creek (McKenzie), North Souris, Bottineau)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Fifteen (15) producing wells were completed, one of the longest lists to date:
  •  24416, 2,855, Oasis, Garraffa 5693 41-11B, Alger, t7/13; cum 13K 7/13;
  • 23662, 444, Zimmerman 3-13H, Stoneview, t8/13; cum --
  • 23883, 1,617, XTO, FBIR Bird 31X-19D, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, t8/13; cum --
  • 23882, 1,817, XTO, FBIR Bird 31X-19H, Heart Butte, Three Forks, t9/13; cum --
  • 23881, 850, XTO, FBIR Bird 31X-19G, Heart Butte, Three Forks, t9/12; cum -- 
  • 23885, 1,566, XTO, FBIR Stephen31X-19H, Heart Butte, Three Forks, t8/13; cum --
  • 23884, 1,436, XTO, FBIR Stephen 31X-19D, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, t8/13; cum --
  • 24084, 1,241, XTO, FBIR Stephen 31X-19G, Heart Butte, t8/13; cum --
  • 23507, 520, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-17D-08-5H, Four Bears, t7/13; cum --
  • 24444, 1,050, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-3, Alger, middle Bakken, t8/13; cum --
  • 22798, 561, Hess, LK-Obrigewitch 146-97-3427H-2, Little Knife, t8/13; cum --
  • 23500, 790, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-3, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum --
  • 24445, 515, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-2, Alger, Three Forks, t8/13; cum --
  • 24562, 748, Hess, EN-Hermanson-154-93-0235H-5, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum --
  • 24869, 868, Hess, EN-Fretheim A 155-93-3334H-8, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum --
Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 23994, drl, Statoil, Margaret 5-8-3TFH, Spring Creek, no production data,
  • 24138, 449, Oasis, Inez 6093 43-19H, Gros Ventre, t3/13; cum 26K 7/13;
  • 24703, 572, OXY USA, Bernard Irwin 1-1-12H-143-98, Little Knife, t3/13; cum 18K 7/13;
  • 24725, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson 152-95-3328H-2, Hawkeye, no production data,
  • 24997, 1,820, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-4H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 21K 7/13;
  • 25197, drl, XTO, Allie 31X-24D, Capa, no production data

Apparently DOE Actually Backed An Energy Winner -- With Coal

Remember the "list of 38"? That is the growing list of solar companies funded by DOE that have all gone bankrupt or have had significant financial problems.

It turns out that DOE actually backed a winner -- a coal technology company. I cannot make this stuff up.

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Great River Energy, operator of the Coal Creek and Stanton station power plants, will transfer its unique coal-drying technology to Tangshan Shenzhou Manufacturing Co. in China.
The agreement allows the company to sell Great River's DryFining technology in power plants in China for 10 years, using Great River for design and integration services.
The technology was invented by Great River in a Clean Coal Power Initiative with the federal Department of Energy and is one of a limited few DOE projects that is now commercialized.
I believe a company in Australia, or the government of Australia, was also interested in this process; if my memory is correct (and it probably isn't) I blogged about it several years ago, somewhat amazed that Australia was shipping their coal to North Dakota to see if their coal would yield to the process. If that is accurate, I do not know how the test turned out.

 ********************************

There are a number of coal technology processes and a number of coal companies in North Dakota. I can never keep them straight: the companies nor the processes.

That's why I posted several stand-alone posts a long time ago to help me keep all of this straight:
Read those links first. Again, they were written a long, long time ago when I was still trying to figure things out. There are probably errors, but I will gladly correct them if alerted.

[I believe the correct spelling is "beneficiation," though it is spelled "benefication" on occasion according to wiki.]

********************************

A story published by The Bismarck Tribune on September 6, 2009, also had to do with drying coal, but was being done by GTL Energy, not Great River.
A million pounds of New Zealand lignite is en route to a southwestern North Dakota plant designed to remove water from the low-quality but abundant coal.
Once processed at the unique, new drying plant near South Heart, the fuel will be shipped back to the Southwest Pacific nation in chunks the size of barbecue briquettes, weighing at least one-third less, burning cleaner and producing more energy, said Robert French, the chief executive officer of GTL Energy USA Ltd.
Plentiful in North Dakota and other parts of the world, lignite can be used to fuel electric power plants. But it usually has a moisture content of 30 percent to 60 percent, meaning it is heavier and more costly to transport than other forms of coal.
"Lignite in its natural state can be one-third water," said Steve Van Dyke, a spokesman for Bismarck-based Lignite Energy Council. "For every three coal cars, the third one would be nothing but water."
But as noted above, I do not know if this test took place, or the results.

**************************

A reader provided the following after the original post:
The little physics/chemistry experiment on the prairie is GTL Energy.  Their process is in competition with the process you mention at Great River.

The GTLE site is just outside of South Heart, which is ten miles west of Dickinson.  For the last several years they have been processing quantities of coal from around the world to prove their process.
From a website:
GTL Energy Ltd (GTL Energy) was formed in Adelaide, South Australia, in 2000 initially to investigate coal-to-gas and gas-to-liquids technology for a specific project in Australia using low rank coal. This led GTL Energy to research and develop process technologies to convert low grade coal into higher rank fuel for cleaner, more efficient power generation, gasification and liquefaction. 
Low rank coal comprises sub-bituminous coal, lignite and brown coal, all of which contain substantial amounts of water (20% to 70% Total Moisture (“TM%”) by weight). Due to its high moisture content, low rank coal diminishes power plant efficiency and produces more emissions per unit of energy produced. 
GTL Energy’s primary objective is to upgrade low rank coal by removing a significant amount of water, thereby raising the thermal value, reducing emissions, improving the transportation and handling characteristics and increasing the market value of the fuel. Upgrading coal from low rank to high rank may result in access to stranded resources and a reduction in emissions.
In tests to date, the GTLE Process has reduced the moisture content of coals from around the world, thereby increasing the energy value and the dollar value of low rank coals.
***************************
Disclaimer:  I'm rushed right now, and might have to clean this post up. But as noted above, the various coal technologies and the various companies confuse me. I don't purposely mislead anyone. Regardless, it looks like the reader clarified this for me. Hopefully it's closer to being more correct than my original post.

More later, if necessary.

Wow, I learn a lot from this blog. Thank you to all the readers for keeping me honest.

Is Something Going On With Oasis?

Updates

Later, 1:50 pm CT: three related headlines:
Later, one minute later: just after posting the original post below, I went "around the horn," and almost all oil companies are having a good day today, some better than others. CLR is jumping, so it is not just Oasis, but Oasis is clearly the standout. Right now, it looks like the Goldman Sachs article linked below that is moving shale oil companies. And the one company GS recommends as a sell (WPX) is down over a percent.

Of the 53 new highs today: BCEI, CLR, OAS, WLL, WMS.
 


Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

On an otherwise flat day for the market, and on a day when the price of oil is falling, all of a sudden, out of the blue, after hitting recent highs, OAS pops another $2.00, up almost 5%.

I don't see any Oasis headlines (I will keep looking) but any stock that pops 5% without an obvious reason ....

KOG is up a percent, so the surge in Oasis could simply be due to analyst's ratings. Last week Sanchez mentioned four companies "with top fundamentals." The only energy company of the four mentioned was Oasis.

Today, I see Goldman Sachs, in Barron's, names Oasis and Approach Resources as top picks for US shale prices
Not all stocks are created equal, however, and the analysts expect some stocks to handily outperform others, and their top picks “are poised to deliver long-term, capital-efficient growth…while trading at attractive valuations that currently provide 20%+ upside to our price targets.” Their winners? Oasis PetroleumApproach ResourcesBonanza Creek Energy, and Gulfport Energy, all of which are rated Buy with Oasis also added to Goldman’s conviction list. Investors, however, should avoid  WPX Energy, which the analysts rate a Sell.
So, now back-to-back, in less than a week, one article in Barron's and one article in IBD both name Oasis as a top pick. 

How Will Lifting Iranian Sanctions Affect Price Of Oil?

Link here.

For 30-second sound bite, it looks like:
  • we're talking about 1 - 2 million bopd embargoed
  • the 1 - 2 million bopd is pretty much the increased amount that Saudi can provide
  • even if US - Iran become a bit friendlier, the sanctions won't go away overnight
  • once the sanctions are dialed back, Iran won't get new oil production to the market overnight
My hunch is that if US-Iran talks go well, the "risk" premium in the price of oil will be reduced, taking us back to about where we were before this all started, i.e., about $96.

NYMEX $91 to $99 is the sweet spot for Bakken operators from what I can see.

Over $100 can be a problem for hedges, derivatives for the Bakken operators.

Despite the price of oil continuing to fall in price today, all three US majors (CVX, COP, XOM) are all up today. As is the market. Barely.

I think share prices of oil companies will follow the stock market in general. As the price of oil goes down in an orderly fashion, the stock market -- all things being equal -- should rise.

I think the stock market will rise and fall based on global economy; political theater in Washington, DC; the US economy; and, easing of world tensions (we've already seen the latter).

Or stated another way: the shares of oil companies will follow the general market. The price of oil, as long as it rises or falls in an orderly manner, will have little long-term (> 6 months) effect on how shares in large- and mid-cap oil companies will do.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here.