Scientists discover that global warming is causing an uneven effect of flooding around the world. Scientists find that sea-level increases may be worse in some areas than others.
It turns out that those places closer to the ocean are more likely to flood.
I can't make this stuff up.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Where Is Price of Oil Headed?
Idle rambling on a quiet Friday night.
From one analyst:
From one analyst:
We remain positively biased towards energy supply and demand fundamentals (i.e., oil prices trending higher).Does the comment on the horrific decline rate remind you of, say, the Bakken?
Let me start first with demand side. As you know from our past discussions, our primary focus on the demand side has been growing demand from the developing nations in the world, China and India in particular, as opposed to the developed or OECD nations. In fact, we have predicted for some time now that we would see flat if not declining demand in the OECD nations of the world, certainly Europe and the United States, and that has generally been the case. So, while we have to take concerns about the US economy and now the European economy into consideration, we think global energy demand will continue to grow given the inexorable link between global GDP growth and energy demand growth.
On the supply side, we actually view the supply challenges, and decline rates in particular, as a more compelling factor than the growth in demand. Decline rates in the Gulf of Mexico, especially deepwater, are very high, on the order of 30 to 40% (and even greater in some instances) post peak production. Globally decline rates are in excess of 6% per year, which means the world has to bring online roughly 5 million barrels a day of new production every year simply to keep supply flat. In addition, the recent incident in the Gulf of Mexico is another example of the existing the supply challenges and more evidence that the era of cheap, easy to access oil is truly over.
On a specific note, one of the interesting dynamics at play today is that the deepwater Gulf of Mexico represents a very important part of US domestic production.
Deep Water Drilling Disease -- Contagious
Now it's the European Union that might place a moratorium on deep water drilling.
This whole deep water drilling thing is getting contagious.
Let's see what that does to the price of oil.
On a day the market took a huge beating (down 2.5%) EEP was up over 1%. I didn't check, but I assume most of the oil companies followed the market down, along with the price of oil. If so, another buying opportunity to accumulate shares in some good companies.
This whole deep water drilling thing is getting contagious.
Let's see what that does to the price of oil.
On a day the market took a huge beating (down 2.5%) EEP was up over 1%. I didn't check, but I assume most of the oil companies followed the market down, along with the price of oil. If so, another buying opportunity to accumulate shares in some good companies.
Update On Stark County Wells (North Dakota/USA)
Update
Status of permits for wells in Stark County from 2009
Original Post
(Note: the Lodgepole formation is part of the Madison group. The Madison group has produced the most oil in the state of North Dakota since discovery of the Williston Basin.)
So, here's where we stand with regard to Stark County, North Dakota (USA) wells (updated January 20, 2012), for a map of some of these wells, click here:
- 19264, 595, Fidelity, Kostelecky 31-6H, 6-139-97, Heart River, s10/10; t2/11; cum 48K 11/11
- 19275, 193, Fidelity, Wock 14-11H, 11-140-97, wildcat, s12/10; t5/11; cum 40K 11/11
- 19277, 118, Fidelity, Oukrop 34-34H, 34-139-97, wildcat, s11/10; t2/11; cum 17K 11/11
- 19258, IA, For America, Zastoupil 22-1, 22-139-97, wildcat
- 19272, SI, Oil For America, Wolf 29-1, 29-139-95, wildcat
- 19337, 772, Whiting, Mann21-18TFH, 18-140-99, North Creek, s8/10; t12/10; cum 54K 11/11
- 19415, PNC, Wesco, Gruman 41-18, Eland, 18-139-96, Lodgepole
- 19444, 3,106, Whiting, Hecker 21-18TFH, 18-140-99, Bell, s11/10; t3/11; cum 186K 11/11; F
- 19562, 412, Whiting/Tracker, Brueni 28-1H, 28-140-98, Green River, s10/10; t3/11; cum 44K 11/11
- 19601, DRL, Oil For America, Wieglenda 23-1, 23-139-96, wildcat
- 19623, 1,057, Whiting, Obrigewitch 21-17TFH, 17-140-99, Bell, s11/10; t4/11; cum 153K 11/11
- 18833, 1,832, Whiting, Froehlich 44-9TFH, 9-139-99, Zenith, s5/10; t9/10; cum 123K 11/11
The city of Dickinson is partly in T140N-96W; the Patterson oil field is on the southwest side of Dickinson, T139-96W. The Whiting well (Froehlich 44-99TFH) is the farthest west of these six wells, just southeast of Belfield where there has been a history of conventional wells over the years, but nothing recent.
Fidelity has been relatively quiet in the Bakken, so this sudden interest in the Dickinson area is interesting. It will be fun to follow.
Update
April 28, 2011: Due to mechanical difficulties at the Obrigewitch 21-17TFH, Whiting believes that only one or two frac stages of the well’s total 16 frac stages are contributing to current production. Despite these difficulties, the Obrigewitch well was completed flowing 1,189 BOE per day. Whiting holds a 96% working interest and a 77% net revenue interest in the well.
October 1, 2010: Tyler Formation in the Dickinson area drawing interest.
Sue Arizona; Deploy Troops in California: I Can't Make This Stuff Up
The administration will sue Arizona because it's new immigration law is seen as "profiling." California is boycotting Arizona over this law.
Meanwhile, the California governor is sending National Guard troops to the California/Mexican border due to broken immigration policies and programs.
I can't make this stuff up.
Cruisin', Michael Nesmith -- yes, there is a tie-in to Arizona (but it's a stretch)
July 20, 2010: The US Forest Service classifies illegal aliens as displaced foreign travelers. I can't make this stuff up.
July 19, 2010: It appears the Palestinian-like suicide bombing across the border from El Paso, TX, has gotten the administration's attention. The administration will send in 1,000 National Guard troops, more than half of them going to the "volatile" Arizona-Mexican border. The administration has said it will sue Arizona's new immigration law which it says promotes profiling. I assume the National Guard will not be involved in profiling while protecting the border. Let's see: walking down the road is a shirtless male and driving down the road is a cowboy-hat wearing driver of a late model SUV along the border: who would you think most likely to be a misplaced foreign traveler.
July 17, 2010: Once we have the first gang-related, drug-related, illegal-alien, explosive-laden vehicle blown up on our side of the border, the immigration issue is going to become "front and center" from here on out. Walking through airport security will be like a walk in the park compared to the security we will see at malls, post offices, police departments, and federal buildings in states along the border. More on that story here. Juarez is across the border from El Paso.
July 16, 2010, 11:20 p.m. EST: I posted the above note late in the afternoon on Friday, July 16, 2010. At 11:15 p.m. the same evening I checked the LA Times.com and this article appeared as the headline story: five other states are considering laws almost identical to the Arizona law. The five states are South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Michigan. Minnesota is about as liberal as one gets, and certainly a few miles away from Mexico. Unless Minnesota is concerned about Canadians. If so, so much for profiling. I can't tell an American-Scandinavian apart from a Canadian-Scandinavian, except perhaps for the ubiquitous "eh?"
Meanwhile, the California governor is sending National Guard troops to the California/Mexican border due to broken immigration policies and programs.
The governor will order 224 California National Guard troops to the border with Mexico, fulfilling an earlier commitment to the president.
In May, the president launched a plan to deploy 1,200 National Guard troops to the southwest border, alarmed by a tide of smuggled drugs and immigrants and pummeled politically over illegal immigration.
Schwarzenegger earlier pledged California’s full cooperation with federal initiatives to secure the border and attack the narcotics trade.The cover of "narcotics trade" makes this more palatable, I guess, to his support base. I assume the National Guard will not use any profiling while watching the border.
I can't make this stuff up.
Cruisin', Michael Nesmith -- yes, there is a tie-in to Arizona (but it's a stretch)
UPDATES
July 20, 2010: The US Forest Service classifies illegal aliens as displaced foreign travelers. I can't make this stuff up.
July 19, 2010: It appears the Palestinian-like suicide bombing across the border from El Paso, TX, has gotten the administration's attention. The administration will send in 1,000 National Guard troops, more than half of them going to the "volatile" Arizona-Mexican border. The administration has said it will sue Arizona's new immigration law which it says promotes profiling. I assume the National Guard will not be involved in profiling while protecting the border. Let's see: walking down the road is a shirtless male and driving down the road is a cowboy-hat wearing driver of a late model SUV along the border: who would you think most likely to be a misplaced foreign traveler.
July 17, 2010: Once we have the first gang-related, drug-related, illegal-alien, explosive-laden vehicle blown up on our side of the border, the immigration issue is going to become "front and center" from here on out. Walking through airport security will be like a walk in the park compared to the security we will see at malls, post offices, police departments, and federal buildings in states along the border. More on that story here. Juarez is across the border from El Paso.
July 16, 2010, 11:20 p.m. EST: I posted the above note late in the afternoon on Friday, July 16, 2010. At 11:15 p.m. the same evening I checked the LA Times.com and this article appeared as the headline story: five other states are considering laws almost identical to the Arizona law. The five states are South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Michigan. Minnesota is about as liberal as one gets, and certainly a few miles away from Mexico. Unless Minnesota is concerned about Canadians. If so, so much for profiling. I can't tell an American-Scandinavian apart from a Canadian-Scandinavian, except perhaps for the ubiquitous "eh?"
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