Monday, November 1, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- November 1, 2021

Tesla: will open higher again today, setting new records. 

Coca-Cola: $8 billion deal; will buy BODYARMOR Sports Drink. 

US equity markets: if the market opens where the futures are now, we could see new records set

WTI: flirting with $84; most oil stocks up slightly. There still seems to be a disconnect between price of crude oil in the US and what the fundamentals are showing (inventories).

US oil: demand was at 20.5 million bopd in August, up almost 2 million bopd or 10.5% y/y and only down a half million bopd of 3% compared to August, 2019, pre-covid. Link here
days supply, crude oil, last week of the following months:

  • August, 2018: 22.6 days
  • August, 2019: 24.2 days
  • August, 2020: 34.5 days -- the year of the plague
  • August, 2021: 26.5 days

So, tell me again, with 26.5 days of crude oil supply, why does OPEC need to pump more oil; why is there talk that we have to release more oil from the SPR?  

  • And, oh, by the way, the number of days of supply continues to increase. The number of days of supply -- in the most recent data released -- is now over 28 days, identical to same period in 2019 (year before Covid) and three days more than 2018.

AAPL, AMZN: huge silver linings with regard to recent quarterly earnings reports. Link to The Motley Fool. My thoughts exactly. 

Contagion? LUV winds hit AA. A thousand-plus flights canceled over weekend due to "staff displacement" and high winds. Link to The WSJ. Tea leaves suggest the holidays will be even worse. CNBC reporting 1,700+ flights canceled.

  • today: 300+ AA flights scheduled so far today
  • this represents about 10% of all its flights
  • about 1,800 flight attendants who were on leave; they are gradually coming back
  • about 90% of these cancellations are due to crew shortages
  • Phil LeBeau: says it will get worse over the holidays
  • remember: a large number of pilots took early retirement when offered during the pandemic
  • I remember this phenomenon when I was in the USAF: the ups and downs of commercial pilot hiring and how USAF pilots followed the monthly numbers closely; those years were nothing compared to what we're seeing now
  • finally, LeBeau picked up on the reason for the problem
  • Jim Cramer says United Airlines in best shape.

Covid-19 and Australia:

  • Australia lifts quarantine restrictions after 590 days. That's about 4.5 months short of two years. It's a strange time to be lifting restrictions.  
  • Australia is in the middle of a huge surge of cases and deaths related to Covid.
    • active cases higher than ever and continuing to climb;
    • daily new cases may have peaked, but hard to tell;
    • total deaths continue to climb at a faster pace than ever before;
    • new daily deaths may have peaked, but if os, very, very subtle
  • comment: either Australia sees something not seen in the current data, or they realize the futility of such restrictions;

Covid-19 and the US:

  • Meanwhile, in the US, huge uptick in the number of vaccines being administered with new mandates that go into effect today. 
  • Prior to the mandate, vaccines being administered were trending toward 600,000, though spikes to 750,000, per day were still being seen, but now, four days in a row, including the generally slow weekends, the numbers are trending toward 1.5 million doses being given each twenty-four hours. 
  • Weekly averages will be posted later today.

Oil analysts:

  • earlier I mentioned that one analyst found it impressive when he found out this past weekend that drillers in the Permian could drill a shale well in ten days;
  • there is another analyst that doesn't understand / didn't understand the importance of the Keystone XL pipeline or at least the purpose of the pipeline. Truly amazing. 

US LNG feedgas:

  • demand hit the highest level in more than six months on October 29, 2021, at almost 12 billion cubic feed / day, translating to nearly 100% liquefaction terminal utilization amid commissioning of a sixth train at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana; link here or direct to Platts
  • US LNG export terminals are followed here. I remember when I first started blogging about these terminals, several years ago, at least one reader pushed back, suggesting I was inappropriately exuberant. It appears I may not have been exuberant enough. LOL.

Sabine Pass Train 6 commissioned. Same link as above.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.