Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- November 1, 2021

Tesla: will open higher again today, setting new records. 

Coca-Cola: $8 billion deal; will buy BODYARMOR Sports Drink. 

US equity markets: if the market opens where the futures are now, we could see new records set

WTI: flirting with $84; most oil stocks up slightly. There still seems to be a disconnect between price of crude oil in the US and what the fundamentals are showing (inventories).

US oil: demand was at 20.5 million bopd in August, up almost 2 million bopd or 10.5% y/y and only down a half million bopd of 3% compared to August, 2019, pre-covid. Link here. 
days supply, crude oil, last week of the following months:

• August, 2018: 22.6 days
• August, 2019: 24.2 days
• August, 2020: 34.5 days -- the year of the plague
• August, 2021: 26.5 days

So, tell me again, with 26.5 days of crude oil supply, why does OPEC need to pump more oil; why is there talk that we have to release more oil from the SPR?  

• And, oh, by the way, the number of days of supply continues to increase. The number of days of supply -- in the most recent data released -- is now over 28 days, identical to same period in 2019 (year before Covid) and three days more than 2018.

AAPL, AMZN: huge silver linings with regard to recent quarterly earnings reports. Link to The Motley Fool. My thoughts exactly. 

Contagion? LUV winds hit AA. A thousand-plus flights canceled over weekend due to "staff displacement" and high winds. Link to The WSJ. Tea leaves suggest the holidays will be even worse. CNBC reporting 1,700+ flights canceled.

• today: 300+ AA flights scheduled so far today
• this represents about 10% of all its flights
• about 1,800 flight attendants who were on leave; they are gradually coming back
• about 90% of these cancellations are due to crew shortages
• Phil LeBeau: says it will get worse over the holidays
• remember: a large number of pilots took early retirement when offered during the pandemic
• I remember this phenomenon when I was in the USAF: the ups and downs of commercial pilot hiring and how USAF pilots followed the monthly numbers closely; those years were nothing compared to what we're seeing now
• finally, LeBeau picked up on the reason for the problem
• Jim Cramer says United Airlines in best shape.
  

Covid-19 and Australia:

• Australia lifts quarantine restrictions after 590 days. That's about 4.5 months short of two years. It's a strange time to be lifting restrictions.  
• Australia is in the middle of a huge surge of cases and deaths related to Covid.
• active cases higher than ever and continuing to climb;
• daily new cases may have peaked, but hard to tell;
• total deaths continue to climb at a faster pace than ever before;
• new daily deaths may have peaked, but if os, very, very subtle
• comment: either Australia sees something not seen in the current data, or they realize the futility of such restrictions;
  

Covid-19 and the US:

• Meanwhile, in the US, huge uptick in the number of vaccines being administered with new mandates that go into effect today. 
• Prior to the mandate, vaccines being administered were trending toward 600,000, though spikes to 750,000, per day were still being seen, but now, four days in a row, including the generally slow weekends, the numbers are trending toward 1.5 million doses being given each twenty-four hours. 
• Weekly averages will be posted later today.
  

Oil analysts:

• earlier I mentioned that one analyst found it impressive when he found out this past weekend that drillers in the Permian could drill a shale well in ten days;
• there is another analyst that doesn't understand / didn't understand the importance of the Keystone XL pipeline or at least the purpose of the pipeline. Truly amazing. 

US LNG feedgas:

• demand hit the highest level in more than six months on October 29, 2021, at almost 12 billion cubic feed / day, translating to nearly 100% liquefaction terminal utilization amid commissioning of a sixth train at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana; link here or direct to Platts. 

• US LNG export terminals are followed here. I remember when I first started blogging about these terminals, several years ago, at least one reader pushed back, suggesting I was inappropriately exuberant. It appears I may not have been exuberant enough. LOL.
  

Sabine Pass Train 6 commissioned. Same link as above.