Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Post-Shut-In Jump In Production In The Bakken -- January 29, 2017

Disclaimer: I did not follow the oil industry in North Dakota prior to the Bakken. I have no formal training or background in the oil industry. I am simply a layperson who has followed the Bakken to some degree since 2007. I would not consider my opinions on the Bakken (or the oil industry in general) to be very credible. I have my thoughts and a worldview with regard to the Bakken (which may be completely wrong) but I tweak it when new data suggests re-evaluation is in order.

My worldview is that the process and outcome of drilling conventional wells is entirely different than the process and outcome of drilling unconventional / shale / tight oil wells.

There are many, many factors to compare and contrast between drilling conventional and unconventional / shale / tight oil wells.

For example, "everyone" agrees with the "Bakken decline" phenomenon.

Recently, a reader with long experience in the oil sector stated that "all wells show a jump in production after they have been shut in for awhile, and the production jump tends to correlate with the length of time the well was off-line / shut-in." His experience goes back to vertical, conventional wells and extends into the Bakken revolution.

I have looked at a lot of production profiles, and that has not been my observation (that there is always a bump up in production after Bakken well has been returned to production after being taken off-line for some reason). There is NOT always a bump in production after a Bakken well has been shut in for awhile.

I have generally seen a huge initial production (the first 90 days) followed by a fairly severe decline, though that decline phenomenon has been less severe over the past couple of years (something operators are also noticing and reporting in their corporate presentations).

With regard to a bump up in production after being off-line, I have also noted that, in general, when a Bakken well is shut in or taken off-line for whatever reason (with perhaps one exception), production when the Bakken well comes back on-line is not particularly different than before it was taken off-line.

I certainly, as a rule, do not see a bump in production after a well comes back on-line.

The one exception: there may be a small bump in production when a well has a pump placed on it, but even then it's not every time, and it's not particularly remarkable.

Below is the typical profile that I see. This is from file report #21110, an Oasis well in an over-pressure field in the Bakken, the Alger. There is generally no explanation in the file report why the well was taken off-line. I think that's the case here; the operator notes that the well meets criteria to be identified as a "stripper well."
  • 21110, 1,327, Oasis, Heron 5693 412H, Alger, t12/11; cum 163K 11/16;
Note:
  • the high initial production;
  • the incredible decline;
  • relative flat production but steady decline;
  • absolutely, no bump in production when the well is placed back on-line after being taken off-line for a significant period of time
Again, this is the most common production profile I see in the Bakken through 2016.


 PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016304855561112857208397
BAKKEN10-2016311141110014211295881414
BAKKEN9-20163083075316297635110
BAKKEN8-20162050447390161635197
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-2016311982500
BAKKEN1-201600310000
BAKKEN12-2015202123271246201330
BAKKEN11-201530104293519776860434
BAKKEN10-2015313553701404330700
BAKKEN9-201529772730237346418832
BAKKEN8-20152424427814154132110
BAKKEN7-20153157055419978415810
BAKKEN6-20153068467326308205680
BAKKEN5-201527555584177466642910
BAKKEN4-20153051049520317024500
BAKKEN3-20153147446918565823220
BAKKEN2-20152850952815294841146
BAKKEN1-20153182984022696412380
BAKKEN12-2014317167303150235119480
BAKKEN11-201430823827277811938030
BAKKEN10-201431111211173303330829180
BAKKEN9-201430136013163555800148262
BAKKEN8-20142652459940774801420
BAKKEN7-2014312267219933535440141
BAKKEN6-201429122911923138970364229
BAKKEN5-201473243818066645730
BAKKEN4-201430105510394066207316830
BAKKEN3-20143110501088458710230620
BAKKEN2-201428170116485311428839240
BAKKEN1-201431134013516922209716940
BAKKEN12-2013311632168311391209816950
BAKKEN11-201330189118346174297925890
BAKKEN10-2013181423141134101143584326
BAKKEN9-2013429338731344439450
BAKKEN8-201315123718037798928920
BAKKEN7-201331374938672307367832750
BAKKEN6-201330429539543058611957290
BAKKEN5-201331485253933313549450910
BAKKEN4-201330548154423400484644560
BAKKEN3-20131017701239783123611060
BAKKEN2-201327411449622993565453030
BAKKEN1-201331578454214076750671030
BAKKEN12-201230589856023837581354230
BAKKEN11-201230651566104610832679360
BAKKEN10-201231843284734815579953960
BAKKEN9-201230707270443774636559750
BAKKEN8-201231631463793546587254690
BAKKEN7-201229552853542385390235250
BAKKEN6-201230493148673020288224920
BAKKEN5-201231640572873940568752840
BAKKEN4-201230687859344079547650860
BAKKEN3-201227776475904901510847570
BAKKEN2-201224598359784396338233820
BAKKEN1-20122510610115137144430343030
BAKKEN12-20113116474155402021417562294614616
BAKKEN11-201125407937937306501705017

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