Post-Shut-In Jump In Production In The Bakken -- January 29, 2017

Disclaimer: I did not follow the oil industry in North Dakota prior to the Bakken. I have no formal training or background in the oil industry. I am simply a layperson who has followed the Bakken to some degree since 2007. I would not consider my opinions on the Bakken (or the oil industry in general) to be very credible. I have my thoughts and a worldview with regard to the Bakken (which may be completely wrong) but I tweak it when new data suggests re-evaluation is in order.

My worldview is that the process and outcome of drilling conventional wells is entirely different than the process and outcome of drilling unconventional / shale / tight oil wells.

There are many, many factors to compare and contrast between drilling conventional and unconventional / shale / tight oil wells.

For example, "everyone" agrees with the "Bakken decline" phenomenon.

Recently, a reader with long experience in the oil sector stated that "all wells show a jump in production after they have been shut in for awhile, and the production jump tends to correlate with the length of time the well was off-line / shut-in." His experience goes back to vertical, conventional wells and extends into the Bakken revolution.

I have looked at a lot of production profiles, and that has not been my observation (that there is always a bump up in production after Bakken well has been returned to production after being taken off-line for some reason). There is NOT always a bump in production after a Bakken well has been shut in for awhile.

I have generally seen a huge initial production (the first 90 days) followed by a fairly severe decline, though that decline phenomenon has been less severe over the past couple of years (something operators are also noticing and reporting in their corporate presentations).

With regard to a bump up in production after being off-line, I have also noted that, in general, when a Bakken well is shut in or taken off-line for whatever reason (with perhaps one exception), production when the Bakken well comes back on-line is not particularly different than before it was taken off-line.

I certainly, as a rule, do not see a bump in production after a well comes back on-line.

The one exception: there may be a small bump in production when a well has a pump placed on it, but even then it's not every time, and it's not particularly remarkable.

Below is the typical profile that I see. This is from file report #21110, an Oasis well in an over-pressure field in the Bakken, the Alger. There is generally no explanation in the file report why the well was taken off-line. I think that's the case here; the operator notes that the well meets criteria to be identified as a "stripper well."

• 21110, 1,327, Oasis, Heron 5693 412H, Alger, t12/11; cum 163K 11/16;

Note:

• the high initial production;
• the incredible decline;
• relative flat production but steady decline;
• absolutely, no bump in production when the well is placed back on-line after being taken off-line for a significant period of time

Again, this is the most common production profile I see in the Bakken through 2016.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	485	556	1112	857	208	397
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	1141	1100	1421	1295	881	414
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	830	753	1629	763	511	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	20	504	473	901	616	351	97
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	3	1	1	98	25	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	0	0	31	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	20	212	327	1246	201	33	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	1042	935	1977	686	0	434
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	355	370	1404	330	70	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	29	772	730	2373	464	188	32
BAKKEN	8-2015	24	244	278	1415	413	211	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	570	554	1997	841	581	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	684	673	2630	820	568	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	27	555	584	1774	666	429	10
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	510	495	2031	702	450	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	474	469	1856	582	322	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	509	528	1529	484	114	6
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	829	840	2269	641	238	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	716	730	3150	2351	1948	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	823	827	2778	1193	803	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	1112	1117	3303	3308	2918	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	1360	1316	3555	800	148	262
BAKKEN	8-2014	26	524	599	4077	480	142	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	2267	2199	3353	544	0	141
BAKKEN	6-2014	29	1229	1192	3138	970	364	229
BAKKEN	5-2014	7	324	381	806	664	573	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	1055	1039	4066	2073	1683	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	1050	1088	4587	1023	0	620
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	1701	1648	5311	4288	3924	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	1340	1351	6922	2097	1694	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	1632	1683	11391	2098	1695	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	1891	1834	6174	2979	2589	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	18	1423	1411	3410	1143	584	326
BAKKEN	9-2013	4	293	387	313	444	394	50
BAKKEN	8-2013	15	1237	1803	779	892	892	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	3749	3867	2307	3678	3275	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	4295	3954	3058	6119	5729	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	4852	5393	3313	5494	5091	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	5481	5442	3400	4846	4456	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	10	1770	1239	783	1236	1106	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	27	4114	4962	2993	5654	5303	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	5784	5421	4076	7506	7103	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	30	5898	5602	3837	5813	5423	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	30	6515	6610	4610	8326	7936	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	8432	8473	4815	5799	5396	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	7072	7044	3774	6365	5975	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	6314	6379	3546	5872	5469	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	29	5528	5354	2385	3902	3525	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	4931	4867	3020	2882	2492	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	6405	7287	3940	5687	5284	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	6878	5934	4079	5476	5086	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	27	7764	7590	4901	5108	4757	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	24	5983	5978	4396	3382	3382	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	25	10610	11513	7144	4303	4303	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	16474	15540	20214	17562	2946	14616
BAKKEN	11-2011	25	4079	3793	7306	5017	0	5017