Thursday, June 2, 2022

Social Media After Release Of Today's EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- June 2, 2022

Following the release of the weekly EIA petroleum report, tweets (most with no links):

  • if OPEC+ can only increase by 649,000 bopd -- remember, Russia will be down at least two million bbls per day -- expect a higher floor for prices;
  • US crude inventories fell by 10.489 million bbls last week
    • commercial: - 5.068 million
    • SPR: 5.421 million bbls released
  • domestic production: 11.9 million bpd
  • Cushing: +0.2 million -- that slight increase probably kept WTI from rising more quickly after the report
  • still very bullish (link here)
  • EIA charts here (link here).
  • implied oil demand for US is well behind that of 2019, same time period, 19.5 million bopd vs 21.5 million bopd
  • SPR release is preventing $150-oil
  • exports of 10.377 million bbls crude was the third highest level ever 
  • total US gasoline inventories are at their lowest May level since 2014.

As a reminder, re-posting:

WTI:

  • prior to report being released, WTI back up to $115 after falling to $112 overnight;
  • moments after the report was released: WTI back to $114.60 
  • about fifteen minutes after the report released: back to $115.50.
  • thirty minutes after release of the report: $116.10 -- back where we were two days ago.
  • looks like we're in a $110 to $120 trading range.

OPEC+:

  • agrees to precisely a 648,000 bopd production hike in July, 2022.
  • I know they spent hours deciding whether it should be 649,000, or even 650,000 but the latter, 650,000 would have seem contrived

The report: the week ending May 27, 2022, so this would have been just before Memorial Day and the opening of driving season in the US.

Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a pretty significant 5.1 million bbls considering the SPR release.
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 414.7 million bbls, 15% below the five-year average, and about double that required by law.
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bbls per day last week; down by 268,000 bbls per day; over the past four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged about 6.4 million b/d, 7.3% more than the same four-week period last year
  • US refiners are operating at 92.6% of their operable capacity, down very, very slightly from last last week (93%)
  • US distillate inventories decreased by 0.5 million bbls; inventories stand 24% below their five-year average
  • Jet fuel supplied was up 19% compared with same four-week period last year

Gasoline demand will be reported later.

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