Tuesday, July 27, 2021

AAPL -- June, 2021, Quarter

BREAKING: after-hours, AAPL is down $6/share after earnings announcement. There are reasons why AAPL is down this much. This is shocking when looking at the earning report. Apple won't give guidance but they do comment on what they expect in next quarter (sounds like guidance): quarter-over-quarter, the  growth rate will drop. Component constraints will be severe in the September quarter but by the December quarter they should be "back to normal." The buzz phrase: "sequential decline in margins." AAPL is a $138 stock. 

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Earnings:

Earnings:

AAPL: huge beat:

  • at the close: $146.77; down $2.22; down 1.49%
  • eps: $1.30 vs $1.01
  • rev: $81.4 billion  estimates: $73.8 billion
  • comments:
    • beat on top line, bottom line, and every line in between (each product line)
    • iPhones $39.57 billion vs $34.5 billion (this is the number most watched buy folks who do not understand Apple)
    • services revenue: $17.49 billion vs $16.3 billion expected
    • after announcement; stock hardly moves; can you imagine how far this stock would have fallen had this earnings report missed expectations? wow?
    • wow; super-cycle playing out even more strongly than expected; in six to nine months, a $3 trillion company
    • one analyst: share price up another 15% before the end of the year; $150 x 1.15 = $175
    • on-going chip shortage; affected Mac ad iPad
    • iPad beat estimatges but not by much;
    • gross margins; 43.3% vs 41.9% 
    • cash on hand: $190.64
    • $2.449 trillion / $146 = 16.78 billion outstanding shares 
    • official: 16.69 billion shares
    • $3 trillion / 16.69 billion = $180/share

In a few minutes, analysis over at CNBC's "Fast Money" by analyst and panel:

  • iPhone 12: double-digit growth by both:
    • Android switchers; and,
    • current Apple iPhone users and owners
  • Gene Munster:
    • stock and the business
    • impressive beat
    • bingo word of the day: sustainability
    • each time Apple has a great quarter, investors ask how long this "greatness" will last;
    • Apple tapping into new massive markets: transportation; health and medicine:
    • next year of two: $200-stock
    • but could become much bigger
    • half their earnings, maybe more, from their services (sustainability)
    • hardware multiple: ?
    • software multiple: ?
    • estimate: $7/share earnings next year
    • a P/E of 28 - 30 puts AAPL at $200/share
  • double-digit growth in iPhone 12 growth --- folks are missing how big a deal this is;

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