Wednesday, April 14, 2021

A Closer Look At Today's EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 14, 2021

From earlier today:

Link here

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • US crude oil in storage: 492.4 million bbls; only one percent above the five-year average for this time of year;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a non-trivial 5.9 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US distillate fuel supplies decreased by 2.1 million bbls last week, but still 4% above the five-year average;
  • US refiners operating at 85% their operable capacity;
  • imports, FWIW, averaged almost 6 million bpd; down by about a half-million bpd;
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6 million bpd; 0.7% more than same four-week period last week;

So, think about that: possibly driving into the most uncharted territory ever -- coming out of a pandemic where people do not want to use mass transportation, and US driving season about to begin --

  • US crude oil in storage only one percent above the five-year average for this time of the year;
  • what about gasoline: production is increasing but inventories decreased last week;
  • gasoline imports are running about a million bpd day (rounded up from 839,000 bpd)

Now, more. The weekly EIA petroleum report was absolutely incredible. It paints an incredible picture of just how fast "we" are coming out of the pandemic. 

Jet fuel delivery: look at the huge change -- this was such an incredible change, I had to check it twice:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 41

March 3, 2021

-24.20%

Week 42

March 10, 2021

-29.80%

Week 43

March 17, 2021

-36.20%

Week 44

March 24, 2021

-35.40%

Week 45

March 31, 2021

-30.20%

Week 46

April 7, 2021

-11.70%

Week 47

April 14, 2021

24.80%

Crude oil imports, look at the last column:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 41

December 23, 2020

5.6

0.140

-12.900%

Week 42

December 30, 2020

5.3

-0.238

-14.400%

Week 43

January 6, 2021

5.4

0.043

-18.100%

Week 44

January 13, 2021

6.2

0.900

14.900%

Week 45

January 22, 2021

6.0

-0.194

-11.800%

Week 46

January 27, 2021

5.1

-1.000

-13.900%

Week 47

February 3, 2021

6.5

1.400

-9.200%

Week 48

February 10, 2021

5.9

-0.700

-12.000%

Week 49

February 18, 2021

5.9

0.041


Week 50

February 24, 2021

4.6

-1.300

-13.300%

Week 51

March 3, 2021

6.3

1.700

-12.800%

Week 52

March 10, 2021

5.7

-0.600


Week 53

March 17, 2021

5.3

-0.332

13.900%

Week 54

March 24, 2021

5.6

0.300

-9.500%

Week 55

March 31, 2021

6.1

0.500

-9.400%

Week 56

April 7, 2021

6.3

0.119

-5.000%

Week 57

April 14, 2021

5.9

-0.411

0.700%

Distillate fuel in storage:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 20

January 6, 2021

6.40

4.0%

Week 21

January 13, 2021

4.80

9.0%

Week 22

January 22, 2021

0.50

8.0%

Week 23

January 27, 2021

-0.80

8.0%

Week 24

February 3, 2021

0.00

8.0%

Week 25

February 10, 2021

-1.70

7.0%

Week 26

February 18, 2021

-3.40

6.0%

Week 27

February 24, 2021

-5.00

3.0%

Week 28

March 3, 2021

-9.70

-17.0%

Week 29

March 10, 2021

-5.50

-4.0%

Week 30

March 17, 2021

0.30

-2.0%

Week 31

March 24, 2021

3.80

1.0%

Week 32

March 31, 2021

2.50

4.0%

Week 33

April 7, 2021

1.50

5.0%

Week 34

Apr 14, 2021

-2.10

4.0%

5 comments:

  1. Looking at EIA reports for several weeks. Domestic production stagnant at 11mm bbls/day. Report yesterday shows inventory of crude and product drop of 9 mm bbl and imports for the week 4.5 mm bbl. Imports of crude and product now 2 mm bbl/day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm looking at the EIA report released yesterday:

      US crude oil imports average 5.9 million bpd, down by 411,000 bpd from the previous week;

      Total motor gasoline imports last week averaged 830,000 bpd and distillate fuel imports averaged 261,000 bpd. [No previous data provided.]

      I would hardly cal1 US production of 11 million bpd stagnant at this point. What's the max the US has ever produced?

      Link here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=a.

      See graphic at that link. Amazing. Eleven million is certainly not a bad number.

      US production:
      in 2017: a new record at 9.4 million bopd
      in 2018: a new record at 10.964 million bopd
      in 2019: a huge new record of 12.248 million bopd
      in 2020: back to 11.315 million bopd
      current EIA estimated: 11.00 million bopd

      If you want to see oil drop precipitously in price, let US production jump to 13 million bopd and see what Saudi Arabia does in response.

      The delta between 11 million bopd and 12 million bopd could be made up in weeks if necessary.

      I'm not focused on production at this point. To a great extent, it's meaningless for me as a metric to follow. The "re-balancing" numbers prove that -- crude oil in storage essentially unchanged for years. I'm focused on demand; refinery operating capacity, and most importantly not the change month over month (the velocity) but rather the rate of change month over month (acceleration).

      By the way, crude oil in storage is less important to me than the number of days of crude oil in storage: the best number for me is about 21 days and under. Currently we remain at record highs; recently over 40 days in storage and currently (most recent data): 33 days, down from 36 days two weeks ago, and down from 40 weeks about a month ago.

      Yesterday's report is perhaps the most bullish reports I've seen in the past twelve months -- it speak volumes about the US re-opening.

      Delete
    2. Days in storage at this link: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_VSD_NUS_DAYS&f=W

      Delete
  2. I wouldn't go off the weekly numbers (they are a mess). But I agree based on NOV, DEC, JAN monthlies that we've been pretty close to flat (how I would define stagnant). Since then, the frac count is right around what is needed for breakeven also. FEB will have a hitch from the freeze, but MAR will rebound (already happened, but we don't have real monthly data yet). APR will also be pretty flat. Maybe a little more recovery, but I doubt north of NOV. I would not be surprised with some modest growth later in the year. But the rig/frac count pretty clearly spells out that things are going to be relatively slow. Rigs should continue to add slowly over the summer, but even with that I doubt we break 11.5 by end of 2021.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree completely.

      For me, the most important metric is gasoline demand; the second most important, numbers of days of crude oil in storage in the US.

      Delete

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