Friday, March 13, 2015

US Economic Malaise Due To Low Gasoline Prices -- Bloomberg; California Has About One Year Of Water Left -- Los Angeles Times -- March 13, 2015

Bloomberg Blames US Malaise On Gasoline Prices

This is almost impossible to make up; this reads like fiction. Bloomberg is reporting:
Consumer confidence declined in March to a four-month low as optimism about the U.S. economy was tempered by weaker income expectations and a rebound in gasoline prices.
The University of Michigan said Friday its preliminary consumer sentiment index decreased to 91.2 this month from 95.4 in February. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 95.5.
Consumers were less upbeat this month as cold weather boosted utility bills, the cost of gas climbed from the almost six-year low in January and wage growth was limited among middle- and lower-income households. At the same time, a better job market is among reasons Americans may feel comfortable sustaining a steady pace of spending. 
So,  US economic malaise blamed on "low" gasoline prices. 

Gasoline is near it's recent low -- yes, it has gone up a bit in the last few weeks -- but except for California where there are signs of $5 gasoline, gasoline is pretty cheap elsewhere. And the tea leaves suggest that gasoline prices are going to drop again -- even in California where there are reports that the refinery strike might be nearing its end. Woo-hoo.
One of the things that was driving it was just rising gasoline prices,” said Drew Matus, deputy U.S. chief economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York. “The general view on the U.S. consumer is going to be mainly driven by the improvement in the labor market.”  
$2.04 to $2.44/gallon -- at 16,000 driving mile / year; and 26 mpg = 615 gallons x 40 cents/gallon increase = $250/year or $20/month increase in gasoline expenses. Boo-hoo.

Wow. And he's a deputy US chief economist at UBS Securities. Where do they find these people?

Read the entire article at the link. The sector that accounts for one-sixth of the economy was not mentioned: health care. "Word-search" health in that article; you won't find it. 

Remember: ObamaCare was pretty much deferred/waived until 2015; it is now just kicking in. Folks are not getting their IRS refunds; it is being held back to pay their ObamaCare premiums. The labor market is screwed up mostly because of the overall anti-business sentiment in Washington, dramatically exemplified by the Keystone XL project which would have employed thousands of workers for at least a year.

Utility bills this year in New England were nowhere as bad as last year this time.

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Dry States

California has "about" one year of water left. That's what the Los Angeles Times says. But at least the state continues to work on the bullet train.

Memo to self: follow-up on this story on March 31, 2016.

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Not Gonna Happen

Bloomberg is reporting -- US oil companies pressing for ban on oil exports to be lifted. Not gonna happen, but just imagine how incredible that would be. Three things happen immediately:
  • oil becomes a true commodity -- currently two cartels: OPEC and US
  • Europe -- on the verge of another recession gets a shot at cheaper energy
  • US economy -- a huge boost
But not gonna happen. Ideology stands in the way.  The law could be written in such a way that would guarantee US storage facilities stay at least 67% filled to capacity (or choose whatever number you want) so Americans wouldn't have to worry about gasoline prices jumping due to worries about perceived future oil shortages due to exports.

From Don:
Take a look at the price of Brent oil and the value of the Euro vis-a-vis the dollar. The Euro for the week it is down in value against the US dollar by about 4 %. The price of oil is pegged in US dollars so the price for oil in Europe has gone thru the roof this week, even as the real price slides.
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Update On Apple Car

Business Insider is reporting:

Here's what we learned from Apple Insider, which claims to have spoken with sources familiar with the matter.
  • Apple's electric car is codenamed "SG5."
  • It's well beyond the concept stage. 
  • The company is believed to be receiving shipments for components at a location in Sunnyvale, which is just minutes from its main campus at 1 Infinite Loop.
  • Apple has offices in Sunnyvale, but it's believed to be working on its electric car in a secretive building labeled 175 that reportedly belongs to a market research firm called SixtyEight. This could be a fake company that Apple is using as a front for its car project, but that hasn't been confirmed. 
  • Many of Apple's auto-related hires, including some from Tesla, are working out of the Sunnyvale campus.
  • These employees have been told to turn their badges around when entering the building to avoid suspicion.
Can you imagine how many Tesla battery cells Apple will pack in the door frames, roof, chassis, in the Apple Car? Even the "cubby hole" which no one uses any more will be packed with Tesla battery cells. If nothing else, Apple knows how to squeeze battery cells into tight spaces.

By the way, the Apple Car is going to be really, really thin. That's the rumor.

More at the Macrumors site.

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Shopping With Apple Watch After Driving To The Apple Store 
In Your Apple Car 
While Listening To Your Playlist On Apple Radio

Speaking of Apple, this is what shopping with the Apple Watch will be like, Forbes reporting:
If you move your Apple Watch-wearing hand anywhere near a store’s payment terminal, mobile wallet system Apple Pay will activate automatically, using your primary credit card to pay for your purchases.
For security purposes, the smartwatch’s sensors will only allow a transaction if the device is on your wrist.
Quick, seamless in-store payment is just one of the reasons retail insiders are bullish on the Cupertino, Calif. gadget giant’s latest release.
“Some people tend to underestimate the potential impact of Apple Watch,” said Christian Gaiser, CEO of coupon app Retale. “This is a total game-changer.”

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