Sunday, August 16, 2020

BofA Trading Platform See 180% 2Q20 Boost -- August 16, 2020

 

Many, many story lines:

  • this bodes very, very well for the stock market -- or this bodes very, very badly for the stock market;
  • discount brokers vs Merrill Lynch, et al;
  • CNBC talking head: "... if a $4.95 commission is a barrier to investing, they shouldn't be investing.." --- the talking head doesn't understand human nature
    • commission-free trading is akin to Amazon's free delivery
  • CNBC talking heads (except Jim Cramer): AAPL and TSLA splits don't mean a thing -- don't understand human nature
    • if the 4 - 1 (AAPL) and the 5 - 1 (TSLA) splits don't mean anything, would these same talking heads say the same thing about reverse splits? (yes, I understand the reason for "reasons" for reverse splits; I'm not sure folk understand the reason for [regular] splits);
    • Jim Cramer: says the AAPL and TSLA splits will be a "plus" for those stocks -- he understands human nature
  • valuations seem to be harder and harder to discern;
  • lightning strikes unpredictably, but no longer infrequently
  • tectonic changes occurring everywhere
    • US presidential election looming
    • Covid-19: things appear to be getting better; things appear to be getting worse;
    • huge amounts of government money will be transferred to little pharma and Big Pharma
    • money rotating out of some sectors into others
  • daytime television sucks; only alternative for some: CNBC
  • question: to what extent do day traders affect computer-generated algorithms? who has the greatest leverage: computer algorithms written by humans (although AI and machine learning may be more involved than we think) or emotionally-driven day traders?

***************************
Re-Visiting REI

Re-posting from August 15, 2020, link here.

White (can we still say that?) elephant in Seattle, Washington:

I think there is much more to this story than meets the eye.

Take out a yellow legal pad and make two columns, pros and cons for a corporation to have employees work from home. The "pros" column will be much longer than the "cons" column but don't be fooled: the list you have drawn up doesn't place a dollar value on any of the items; many of the "pros" / "cons" cannot be monetized.

I don't think it's as straightforward as the zerohedge article might be implying. 

I track "how Covid-19 changes things in America" at this post.

*****************************
How Covid-19 Changes Things In America

From that site:

July 16, 2020: cocoon culture

  • forecast: permanent drop in US miles driven could be as high as 10%
  • due to:
    • working from home
    • on-line shopping
  • historically: 17 million autos sold annually
  • going forward: likely to be 16 million autos annually
  • "people will fight very seriously for a million vehicles, especially if sales drop"

My hunch: that may need to be re-examined.

  • first, "could be as much as" -- lots of wiggle room
  • second, "as high as 10%" -- if comes to fruition, 10% not that extreme in big scheme of things
  • third, mass transit is dead; for those who cannot afford their own automobiles, Uber/Lyft exist and, if I recall, their mode of transportation is ... drum roll ... the automobile
  • fourth, transportation by air --
    • business: more and more, such travel will be reduced by Zoom meetings;
    • pleasure: really? really? really? for trips less than day's (18 hours) drive -- automobiles favored over flying? certainly for the next eight months
  • trucking industry: tea leaves suggest there could be a short-term boom as the pandemic fades
    • long term? think Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc
  • automobile miles: a whole new demographic -- all those stay-at-home folks (many of them seniors) who never went out for dinner, can now have it delivered -- from everywhere -- from fast food restaurants to high-end establishments

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.