BofA Trading Platform See 180% 2Q20 Boost -- August 16, 2020

 

Many, many story lines:

• this bodes very, very well for the stock market -- or this bodes very, very badly for the stock market;
  
• discount brokers vs Merrill Lynch, et al;
• CNBC talking head: "... if a $4.95 commission is a barrier to investing, they shouldn't be investing.." --- the talking head doesn't understand human nature
• commission-free trading is akin to Amazon's free delivery
• CNBC talking heads (except Jim Cramer): AAPL and TSLA splits don't mean a thing -- don't understand human nature
• if the 4 - 1 (AAPL) and the 5 - 1 (TSLA) splits don't mean anything, would these same talking heads say the same thing about reverse splits? (yes, I understand the reason for "reasons" for reverse splits; I'm not sure folk understand the reason for [regular] splits);
• Jim Cramer: says the AAPL and TSLA splits will be a "plus" for those stocks -- he understands human nature
• valuations seem to be harder and harder to discern;
• lightning strikes unpredictably, but no longer infrequently
• tectonic changes occurring everywhere
  
• US presidential election looming
• Covid-19: things appear to be getting better; things appear to be getting worse;
• huge amounts of government money will be transferred to little pharma and Big Pharma
• money rotating out of some sectors into others
• daytime television sucks; only alternative for some: CNBC
• question: to what extent do day traders affect computer-generated algorithms? who has the greatest leverage: computer algorithms written by humans (although AI and machine learning may be more involved than we think) or emotionally-driven day traders?

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Re-Visiting REI

Re-posting from August 15, 2020, link here.

White (can we still say that?) elephant in Seattle, Washington:

I think there is much more to this story than meets the eye.

Take out a yellow legal pad and make two columns, pros and cons for a corporation to have employees work from home. The "pros" column will be much longer than the "cons" column but don't be fooled: the list you have drawn up doesn't place a dollar value on any of the items; many of the "pros" / "cons" cannot be monetized.

I don't think it's as straightforward as the zerohedge article might be implying. 

I track "how Covid-19 changes things in America" at this post.

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How Covid-19 Changes Things In America

From that site:

July 16, 2020: cocoon culture. 

• forecast: permanent drop in US miles driven could be as high as 10%
• due to:
• working from home
• on-line shopping
• historically: 17 million autos sold annually
• going forward: likely to be 16 million autos annually
• "people will fight very seriously for a million vehicles, especially if sales drop"

My hunch: that may need to be re-examined.

• first, "could be as much as" -- lots of wiggle room
• second, "as high as 10%" -- if comes to fruition, 10% not that extreme in big scheme of things
• third, mass transit is dead; for those who cannot afford their own automobiles, Uber/Lyft exist and, if I recall, their mode of transportation is ... drum roll ... the automobile
• fourth, transportation by air --
• business: more and more, such travel will be reduced by Zoom meetings;
• pleasure: really? really? really? for trips less than day's (18 hours) drive -- automobiles favored over flying? certainly for the next eight months
• trucking industry: tea leaves suggest there could be a short-term boom as the pandemic fades
• long term? think Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc
• automobile miles: a whole new demographic -- all those stay-at-home folks (many of them seniors) who never went out for dinner, can now have it delivered -- from everywhere -- from fast food restaurants to high-end establishments