Monday, January 4, 2016

Mike Filloon On EOG In The Bakken -- January 4, 2016

Mike Filloon on EOG in the Bakken (archived): an EOG well pad has produced revenue in excess of $200 million in 2.5 years. It should be noted that Mike titles these updates as "Bakken updates," but in this case, the pad that produced revenue in excess of $200 million is located in the Eagle Ford in Texas. However, most of this particular article is on the Bakken in North Dakota. Also, note: this article was originally written by Mike Filloon back in June 29, 2015. This was probably on the premium Seeking Alpha (pay/subscription) site, and it appears it was moved to the non-pay Seeking Alpha site for some reason. This was not made particularly obvious by Seeking Alpha or Mike Filloon, which is somewhat disturbing):

Summary:
  • EOG Resources' sand-heavy frac design may have revolutionized unconventional production.
  • EOG's early well results in Gonzales County have had huge success, leading to its uses in the Bakken and Permian
  • This design is being copied by other operators with good results, although EOG continues to significantly outpace the competition
  • EOG's sand heavy Parshall Field fracs have produced some of the best wells to date in the Bakken
  • The large volumes of sand/foot seems to show significantly better source rock stimulation. The greater the void, the more proppant needed to fill it
Other data points:
  • Over the first five months, Parshall 37-0806H produced 146,755 bbls of oil and 69,483 Mcf. Using $60/bbl oil and $3/Mcf, revenues were $9,013,749. Current well costs are $8 million, but this number will decrease to just $7.4 million by year end. Payback occurred at approximately four months. It was drilled on a three-well pad, making the result more impressive.
  • Production numbers of two Wayzetta wells are more interesting. The more complex well style produced 426,391 bbls/oil in 28 months. The less complex design only produced 279,336 bbls/oil over the same time frame. Data shows the importance of well design. EOG continues to stimulate the source rock better. Keep in mind there are differing results, and it is difficult to determine exactly what variable improves production. In general, we can identify improvements. It is also important how many wells have already been drilled from a pad, as resource is shared among wells in close vicinity. This strengthens the result from Parshall given it was drilled with an additional well on the pad.
A Bakken pad that produced revenues of $20 million in less than a year is the Burke 46/45/66-3130H:
  • This pad is just north of Parshall field. It produced 323,180 bbls of oil and 178440 Mcf in 10 months. This produced revenues of $19,926,120. The total cost of this pad was roughly $24 million. Modeling these wells forward, it still reaches payback in an estimated 14 months. This is still an acceptable time frame, especially when we consider today's oil prices. All three wells saw a different well design. Burke 66-3130H had the most complexity. It used 43 stages and 12.9 million pounds of sand. 288000 bbls of frac fluids were used. Burke 46-3130H was a 38 stage frac. It used 11.3 million lbs. of sand and 248000 bbls. of frac fluids. Burke 45-3130H was a little shorter. It was a 32 stage frac and used 9.7 million pounds of sand. 202000 bbls of frac fluids were used. EOG continues to use a progressive frac design, even in non-core acreage.

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