So, today, I was surprised when Debbie Downer ran a story emphasizing that there is no question among the experts and the folks following the boom, that more housing is needed. And lo and behold, someone finally gets it. The boom will end at some point, and temporary facilities can be taken down; permanent facilities will be, well, permanent, occupied or not.
“The communities don’t want to overbuild and have vacancies when the drilling phase is finished. The communities are trying to find that balance.”They also noted that some "temporary" folks will stay. In fact, I was quite surprised by the number that eventually stayed. I opined early on that based on my experience in the military that families find a way to stay together even under the harshest of conditions, and that has happened in Williston. I knew it would happen; I just didn't expect the numbers. Look at the school enrollment.
The problem turned out to be the definition of "permanent." A one-year job turned into two years, and that turned into three years. When the job went from one year to two years, it was time for the family to join them, and that was the turning point, and we started to see it in 2010, I suppose (thought I missed it) but everyone saw it by the 2011 - 2012 school year.
It's kind of interesting. I thought the boom would tend to level off by the time when max number of rigs that could be supported was reached. Yes, now that the max number of rigs that the region can support has been reached, one might think that activity would level off. But what I forgot was that the 200 wells drilled last month did not go away when the 200 wells drilled this month came on line. Those 200 wells from last month need takeaway -- pipelines and railroad terminals. The other thing I forgot was the support services still trying to catch up: suppliers supporting the 8 new motels; public laundries; more restaurants; new truck stops; more roads being built; old ones requiring more frequent attention.
The conference was held in Dickinson. Hmmm.
