So, today, I was surprised when Debbie Downer ran a story emphasizing that there is no question among the experts and the folks following the boom, that more housing is needed. And lo and behold, someone finally gets it. The boom will end at some point, and temporary facilities can be taken down; permanent facilities will be, well, permanent, occupied or not.
“The communities don’t want to overbuild and have vacancies when the drilling phase is finished. The communities are trying to find that balance.”They also noted that some "temporary" folks will stay. In fact, I was quite surprised by the number that eventually stayed. I opined early on that based on my experience in the military that families find a way to stay together even under the harshest of conditions, and that has happened in Williston. I knew it would happen; I just didn't expect the numbers. Look at the school enrollment.
The problem turned out to be the definition of "permanent." A one-year job turned into two years, and that turned into three years. When the job went from one year to two years, it was time for the family to join them, and that was the turning point, and we started to see it in 2010, I suppose (thought I missed it) but everyone saw it by the 2011 - 2012 school year.
It's kind of interesting. I thought the boom would tend to level off by the time when max number of rigs that could be supported was reached. Yes, now that the max number of rigs that the region can support has been reached, one might think that activity would level off. But what I forgot was that the 200 wells drilled last month did not go away when the 200 wells drilled this month came on line. Those 200 wells from last month need takeaway -- pipelines and railroad terminals. The other thing I forgot was the support services still trying to catch up: suppliers supporting the 8 new motels; public laundries; more restaurants; new truck stops; more roads being built; old ones requiring more frequent attention.
The conference was held in Dickinson. Hmmm.
In my opinion the best way to tell if there is enough housing and motels is whether or not you can support casual tourism and business visitors. By that i mean, can somebody come to your town on business for a few days or just traveling through find a decent room at a moderate price and, here's the key, do so without a reservation. Sure there's always those times when there's some big conference or other event making rooms tight, but in general reasonable priced rooms in clean motels should be available if housing needs are adequate.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great metric, and I agree. (Affordable price is assumed with the phrase "casual tourism.)
DeleteBy that definition, western North Dakota is nowhere close to having enough space. Last autumn when I was there, all motels were contracted out by oil and oil service companies, for long-term occupancy.
No one should arrive in Williston without arranging for lodging ahead of time.
Taking the family home to Dickinson for Easter weekend. I booked a room at the Holiday inn express for 2 nights for $169 per night, which is comparable to staying in downtown Minneapolis. I was surprised I was able to reserve the room (I booked 3 months in advance). I believe housing will improve, but it's very expensive to travel home for an average Nodaker right now, if you can make a reservation. Man camps do help and make sense for many reasons.
ReplyDeleteWow, I am really impressed with price and availability in Dickinson.
DeleteThank you for sharing.
If availability and price in Wiliston is still what it was last autumn, one could almost write a short story, "A Tale of Two Cities." Availability was pretty much non-existent, and price was $189/night.