The other thing to note is the percentage of total cases (positive tests) vs total number of tests completed. In some of the states hardest hit, the percentage ranges from 15% to 21%. In the states less badly hit, the percentage of positive tests to total number of tests is only 10%.
With a positive rate of only 10% in most states, and a positive rate of around 20% in the harder hit states, it certainly suggests surveillance targeting is either being poorly done, or this virus is not very infectious / contagious.
For example, and of course, this is not accurate, but for illustrative purposes: if one tests 100 folks because they have been exposed and only 10% of those people turn out positive, that suggests the virus is not particularly infectious. We saw that, by the way, on the Diamond Princess. A very small percentage of folks actually tested positive on this closed vessel.
One has to assume tests are being done on certain folks for a reason: I assume the #1 reason for testing is a person is being evaluated for cough and fever by one's physician; the #2 reason for testing is history of exposure. So, if the folks most likely to test positive are coming back at 20% in the hard-hit states and around 10% in the less hard-hit states, it certainly suggests that this virus is not very infectious, and a lot of folks presumed to have Wuhan flu based on symptoms, in fact, do not test positive.
For all the criticism the governor of Michigan is getting, Michigan does not show up on the first screenshot below, ranked by number of new cases. Michigan does show up on the second list, ranked by number of new deaths, suggesting the Michigan governor is correct in her decision to be overly cautious.
Michigan:
- total tests: 538,812
- number of positive tests: 56,884
- percent of positive test / total tests: 10.6%
It now appears that the virus is not particularly infectious based on percent of positive tests vs number of tests performed.
So, now we have:
- a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
- a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
- a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
- a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;
- powder kegs across the nation with lock down; surging unemployment; no hope;
- routine vaccination of infants and children plummeting; folks afraid to keep well baby appointments or afraid of vaccinations themselves (previously reported)
Ranked by number of new deaths. Based on "new case data" in the spreadsheet above, states like California, Illinois, and Texas should move higher in the next two or three weeks.
*************************************
Geologic Time
Some of this was previously posted. It originated with an essay in Power Line some months ago. See this link.
A huge part of evolution is knowing all the ages, epochs, periods, eras, eons, and supereons.
We're currently in the Holocene epoch, which has just begun, relatively speaking.
To date there have been three named ages of the Holocene epoch, most recent to oldest: Meghalayan; Northgrippian; and, Greenlandian, although it's my understanding these are "placeholders" for now and yet to be etched in stone.
By the way, "holocene" from the Greek: holo: whole, all; kainos: new. Looking at kainos it appears holocene should be pronounced with a hard "c," or holokene. "C" is a tough letter when it comes to pronunciation: a hard "c"; a soft "c"; and then there's the "j" sound for "c" in such words as Incirlik.
Now, some say we have entered the fourth age. This is quite incredible. This might be one of the longest single blog posts (at the link below) I have ever seen. It is incredible. I hope it never disappears behind a paywall or lost entirely some other way. Link here.
It's a keeper.
The fourth age of the Holocene epoch, the Age of Shibboliths.
Shibbolithic /ʃɪbəlˈiθik/ n.
: the current geological age, regarded as the first of the Anthropocene epoch and distinguished by the hegemony of unconvincing impostors in the scholarly and scientific academies.
St Greta of Thurnberg is probably the best example.
Source: ‘Shibbolithic.’ Merriam-Webster.com. Merriam-Webster, n.d. Web. 1 Apr. 2020.My reading phase: re-reading Keld Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse, The Liberation of the Western Mind, From Odysseus to Socrates, c. 2007. Previous posts:
- The Wooden Horse, Keld Zeruneith -- Early Notes -- Re-Posting, May 31, 2020;
- development of the tragedy: The Wooden Horse, Keld Zeruneith -- second note; December 21, 2018;
- random note on the Iliad and the Odyssey, July 21, 2013;
- mythology and Romanticism, the minor poets, May 21, 2010;
- mythology and the Romantic poets, May 17, 2010;
- summer reading: part 1, May 6, 2010;
- the epithets of Zeus, May 2, 2010;
- development of the tragedy: The Wooden Horse, Keld Zeruneith -- first note, April 25, 2010 (repeated above)
- Greek tragedy and western philosophy, April 23, 2010;
- current reading, March 28, 2010;
North Dakota has a positive rate of about 3%. Yesterday 1.4 on 2700 test.
ReplyDeleteThank you. Speaks volumes about this whole pandemic.
Delete