After reading it again, I've taken the liberty to add a line on the graphic to project where "we" could be if the winter of 2018-2019 is anything like the winter of 2013 - 2014. I am unaware of anyone making that comparison yet, but it's a scenario that needs considering.
The reader's note is long and involved but it can be summed up in three points. Only that in bold needs to be read.
1. We should know where "we" stand by the end of the second weekend in November. Generally, max natural gas storage in the US is seen at the end of injection season, historically the first weekend in November, but the reader suggests that based on recent history, the injection season could go an additional week this year, i.e., the second week in November.
2. Going into the heating season, when natural gas in storage starts to decline, our current storage is at record lows, last seen in 2005, thirteen years ago.
3. If the winter of 2018 - 2019 approaches the severity of the winter of 2013 - 2014, US natural gas storage could drop to well below 200 bcf. Note that US natural gas in storage has never dropped below 900 bcf. The graphic is worth a thousand words.
This is my interpretation of what the reader wrote. I take all responsibility if I have misinterpreted what he was saying.
The graphic:
***********************************
The Top Three Stories That Fascinate Me Right Now
I first posted this list October 26, 2018, only four days ago:
- Proposition 112 in Colorado
- Saudi Arabia -- the Crown Prince's recent investment conference was a dud
- News today that the NDIC is raising the flaring issue once again
- Proposition 112 in Colorado
- the growing alliance between Russia and Saudi Arabia
- how Iran responds when pushed into a corner
- flaring policy in North Dakota
