Friday, January 13, 2017

Down But Not Out; Still Above One Million BOPD; Natural Gas Production Hits All-Time High; Gas Gathering Expansion South Of Lake Sakakawea This Quarter -- Director's Cut Is Out -- November, 2016, Data

Disclaimer: as always, this is done quickly, and will have typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Director's Cut is out: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2017-01-13.pdf.

Oil production:
  • November, 2016: 1,033,693 bopd
  • October, 2016: 1,043,693 bopd
  • The November figure will be revised as more data comes in but right now, that's exactly a delta of 10,000 bbls month-over-month.
  • Delta, November-over-October: - 0.96%. Less than 1 percent decrease in November over October, crude oil production.  
Natural gas production:
  • November, 2016: 1,764,494 MCF/day
  • October, 2016: 1,717,763 MCF/day
  • Delta, November-over-October: + 2.72% 
  • NOTE: natural gas production in North Dakota hit an all-time record in November, 2016. 
BOE for November, 2016:
  • 1,764,494 MCF/day =  304,296 boe/day 
  • 1.034 bo/day + 0.304296/day = 1.34 million boe/day
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Permitting:
  • 76 in November is down from 82 in October.
Rig count:
  • December's count at 40, is above the 37 in November, and the 33 in October.
DUCs and inactive wells:
  • estimated to be 839, down 21 from end of October to end of November
  • estimated number of inactive wells is up 16, up to 1,519 inactive wells, estimated
Takeaway capacity:
  • dependent on CBR to coastal refineries
Natural gas
  • US storage is now 0.1% below five-year average
  • statewide capture: 89%
  • FBIR Bakken capture: 88%
  • "mandate": 85% by October 31, 2018
  • "mandate": 91% by November 1, 2010
  • NOTE: The percentage of gas flared decreased to 11% with Alliance Pipeline back in service. The Tioga gas plant is still way below capacity; it is operating at 83% capacity. The expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea has now been approved with start-up anticipated in 1Q17. (That's this quarter, folks!) 

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