Thursday, April 3, 2014

For Investors Only: Oil Back Up Over $100; Bakken Operators Show Improvment; Whiting To Increase Capacitiy At Robinson Lake Natural Gas Processing Plant

Isn't this interesting: WTI is back over $100. It is not due to a weak dollar: the Dollar Index has hit its best levels in five weeks following dovish commentary by ECB President Mario Draghi. 11:46AM Crude oil prices just spiked to new session highs... May contract hit $100.04/barrel and is now +0.4% at $99.98/barrel

Disclaimer: this is not in investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 


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Johnny Cash Album Released 2014
I normally don't do this, put in a plug for a new CD, but this is too good to delay posting. This is vintage Johnny Cash: Out Among The Stars. If you like Johnny Cash, buy this CD. It's available at Amazon.com. I had heard one song on the album and based on that song alone, I bought the CD at Starbucks this morning. Wow, not disappointed at all. It is vintage Johnny Cash, not the songs from the albums he was producing in the last years of his life. These could have been produced at the peak of his popularity and the quality seems better than one would expect from songs recorded long ago: all selections previously unreleased. Original recordings produced by Billy Sherrill. Produced for release by John Carter Cash and Steve Berkowitz. There are three duets: two with June Carter Cash and the recording is crystal clear. She was the man behind his success, I am convinced. The third duet was with Waylon Jennings. Wow, great songs. Did I say it was vintage Johnny. Perhaps a bit too country for some modern listeners. But if you grew up with Johnny Cash like I did you will love the album. Trust me.

Oh, I didn't notice this: the reason I bought the album was for one song, "She Used To Love Me A Lot." It turns out the song is found twice on the album: the way I first heard it, and then as a "bonus track," the JC/EC version.

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Newfield is moving today. A reader asked me for my thoughts. My reply:
I think the fast-frequency traders meant to trade Netflix, new Newfield.

Seriously, today's movement is due to the upgrade by UBS, and the fact that oil reversed.

The question is why UBS upgraded Newfield.

Newfield is an interesting story. I know nothing about it except what little play it has in the Bakken. Two or three years ago, Newfield CEO sounded absolutely frustrated with his investment in the Bakken and it sounded like he was ready to leave the Bakken. Shortly after that, Newfield "turned around" in the Bakken: better wells, and better conference calls.

I believe the Bakken is only a small part of Newfield's assets, but I like to think that Wall Street investors are starting to note that the Bakken might be bigger than they originally thought. Again, most of the operators in the Bakken are not well known names on Wall Street.

Look at KOG today; I think Wall Street knows KOG and is looking for other players in the Bakken. 
Zack's also provided this note back on March 10, 2014:
The company should benefit from the positive results of the Uinta Basin, South Cana, Bakken and Eagle Ford. We expect the yields from these plays to nearly double in 2014. Further, Newfield’s international asset divestitures like the Malaysia business, which was reducing earnings, will help in improving profitability.
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Trading at new highs today: BHI, ECA, EOG, NFX, PSX, SLB, and even WLL! Yahoo!Finance shows KOG has had a 52-week high of just over $14. EOG is now solidly over $100, equal to a $200/share, pre-split valuation. It's been a slog for WLL -- as low as $56 back in February; now $71.

Whiting will expand its Robinson Lake natural gas plant to over 100 million cubic feet per day (for newbies: the "standard size" of a natural gas processing plant in North Dakota is 100 million cubic feet per day). Whiting says they can increase that amount of capacity and not expand the footprint. According to Whiting's 2013 annual report:
The Robinson Lake plant located in our Sanish field has a current processing capacity of approximately 90 MMcf/d, and we have projects underway to increase this processing capability to 110 MMcf/d by mid-year 2014.
Our Belfield Plant located near the Pronghorn field has a processing capacity of 35 MMcf/d. Both plants have fractionation capability to convert NGLs into propane and butane, which end products can then be sold locally for higher realized prices.
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Gazprom

Bloomberg is reporting:
Back in April 2007, in the midst of the greatest commodities rally on record, OAO Gazprom's deputy chief executive officer, Alexander Medvedev, was talking big.
Russia's natural-gas export monopoly aspired to be the world's largest company, he said while offering up a prediction: its market value would quadruple to $1 trillion in as little as seven years. 
Medvedev was off by $910 billion. Since he made that forecast, no company among the world's top 5,000 has suffered a bigger collapse in market capitalization than Gazprom, a $154 billion plunge that's become emblematic of the malaise that has overtaken President Vladimir Putin's economy. The state-run company has tumbled three straight years in the stock market as it stepped up spending on everything from the Olympic games in Sochi to projects in Siberia.
The timing of the story is interesting, isn't it?

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