Sunday, April 7, 2013

Germany Looking To Stop Wind Energy Initiatives Sooner Than Later -- Bloomberg; Wind Energy Has Killed Germany's Manufacturing Base

 “The entire [renewable] energy switch has derailed,” Marc Nettelbeck, an analyst at DZ Bank AG, 
said this week by phone from Frankfurt. 
“The difficulties connecting offshore wind farms to the power grid 
reduces their profitability
 and 
renders the original investment calculations of utilities invalid.” 

-- at Bloomberg, April 5, 2013

*********************** 
Chancellor Angela Merkel is losing support 
from her two biggest allies 
in the utilities industry as 
their mounting debt prompts a retreat 
from renewable-power expansion
undermining her 
$700 billion program to reshape Germany’s energy market. 

-- at Bloomberg, April 5, 2013
***********************

Something tells me the activist environmentalists will stage rallies to promote wind energy, but won't invest in German utilities. Call me cynical.

I think there are some irrefutable renewable energy facts. Germany is proving them.

Germany probably has the lead on wind energy. Let's see. Google "wind energy Germany wiki." I'm doing this in real-time. It will be a surprise to me also. So, here goes.

Wind power in Germany:
In 2011, the installed capacity of wind power in Germany was 29,075 megawatts (MW), with wind power producing about 8 percent of Germany’s total electrical power.
According to EWEA in a normal wind year, installed wind capacity in Germany will meet 10.6% at end 2011 and 9.3% at end 2010 of the German electricity needs. 
In 2012, the use of wind power is, according to the German newspaper Der Spiegel, causing increasing electricity prices and power outages, and due to these factors, renewable energy usage is forcing industries to close, move overseas, and the loss of German heavy industry jobs.
Okay, so that's Germany. But what is the country-by-country comparison? Here's 2011 data, the first site that popped up, per capita:
  • Denmarck
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Germany
  • Ireland
  • Sweden
  • Netherlands
  • USA
  • New Zealand
Interestingly, the PIIGS dominate the list, followed by the Scandinavian countries which some consider "special/unique cases." There are no BRICs on the list, the emerging economies.

So, Germany is near the top, and other than the fact that wind energy is destroying the manufacturing base in Germany, what else is new with regard to wind in Germany?

Don alerted me to this story: Germany is turning its back on wind. This Bloomberg story is incredible.

Some data points:
  • Germany plans to decommission all nuclear energy plants by 2022
  • Germany plans to triple renewable energy by 2050
  • renewable goals coming under pressure: wind has destroyed Germany's manufacturing base; increasing consumers' utility bills
  • cost of developing wind farms in the North Sea has surged; construction glitches and delays linking turbines to the grid
From the linked Bloomberg article:
The country’s biggest utility, said last month it will lower clean-energy investments to less than 1 billion euros in 2015 from 1.79 billion euros last year. RWE will cut annual renewables spending in half to about 500 million euros in the next two years. 
My hunch is they would cut faster if they were allowed to, or if public pressure wasn't in play.

After the Japanese nuclear debacle, Germany closed eight nuclear reactors: wiping 25 billion euros off the market value of two of the Germany's largest utilities in the nine months that followed that decision. 

From the linked Bloomberg article:
Utilities’ withdrawal from renewables targets may threaten Germany’s goal to have 10,000 megawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2020, two years before the last remaining nuclear plants shut permanently. The government sees offshore wind at 25,000 megawatts by 2030 -- up from about 280 megawatts now --as it implements its 550 billion-euro plan to replace reactors.
“The offshore expansion in Germany is much slower than anticipated by politicians,” said Marc Oliver Bettzuege, head of Cologne University’s Energy Economics Institute. Without a focus on wind from “financially strong investors” such as EON and RWE, Germany will need to import a “large amount” of clean power to reach its goals, he said. 
Years ago, I was impressed by the math ExxonMobil provided regarding wind energy. I'm not going to look for that link now, but suffice it to say, ExxonMobil said the math didn't work. Looks like they were correct, but the politicians had to see it for themselves. An expensive experiment. 

From wiki, linked above:
In 2012, the use of wind power is, according to the German newspaper Der Spiegel, causing increasing electricity prices and power outages, and due to these factors, renewable energy usage is forcing industries to close, move overseas, and the loss of German heavy industry jobs.
Off-shore wind energy, and perhaps renewable energy in general, had led to the destruction of the German manufacturing base. To read that is amazing. Now consider what is not said:
  • western governments tax the heck out of fossil fuel energy
  • western governments put up all kinds of obstacles to block fossil fuel energy development
  • western governments slow roll the oil and gas industry.
  • western governments give tax breaks, subsidies to renewable energy
  • western governments fast-track renewable energy projects
  • western governments mandate use of renewable energy even when less expensive alternative exist
  • there is no evidence that renewable energy is making a bit of difference
  • the world's largest consumer of energy in the not-too-distant future has no plans to be politically correct [China became the world's largest energy consumer (18% of the total) since its consumption surged by 8% during 2009 (up from 4% in 2008) , WSJ, 2010]
I can't make this stuff up.

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